無處不在的互聯網: 物聯網時代即將來臨大綱

From meat thermometers monitored with a smartphone to Wi-Fi-equipped dog collars, devices and services in homes and businesses are increasingly being connected to the Internet, a long-awaited trend that is causing a surge of optimism in the tech sector.
從以智能手機監控的肉類溫度計到配備Wi-Fi的犬隻項圈，家用和商用的設備與服務越來越多地與互聯網相連，這一人們期待已久的趨勢正引發科技行業洶涌的樂觀情緒。

Large and small companies are churning out a number of Internet-connected gadgets, a central theme as the Consumer Electronics Show opens this week in Las Vegas.
大大小小的公司紛紛推出衆多連接互聯網的設備，這是消費電子展(Consumer Electronics Show)本週在拉斯維加斯開幕之際的一箇中心主題。

Devices on the market or the drawing board include smart door locks, toothbrushes, wristwatches, fitness trackers, smoke detectors, surveillance cameras, ovens, toys and robots.
已經上市或尚在設計中的設備包括智能門鎖、牙刷、腕錶、健身記錄儀、煙霧探測器、監控攝像頭、爐具、玩具和機器人。

But the much-ballyhooed Internet of Things still is largely a collection of possibilities. Sales of the new-wave products are threatened by a number of stumbling blocks that could slow investment--from conflicting wireless-communications standards to debates about how much processing power should be built into gadgets.
但規模大大膨脹的“物聯網”(Internet of Things)在很大程度上仍然只是各種可能性的集合。這些新浪潮產品的銷售受到衆多可能減緩投資的障礙威脅――從互相矛盾的無線通信標準到有關設備處理能力的爭論不一而足。

Some industry executives say privacy concerns may be even more serious, without a consensus on how to exploit all the data that could be generated by a flood of new sensors and Internet-connected video cameras.
一些業內高管認爲，人們對隱私的擔憂可能更嚴重，因爲一大批新傳感器和連接互聯網的視頻攝像頭將產生大量數據，這些數據如何加以利用尚未形成共識。

'Big data is worth absolutely nothing without big judgment,' says Joseph Bradley, director of what Cisco Systems Inc. calls its 'Internet of Everything' consulting practice.
思科系統(Cisco Systems Inc.)“萬物互聯”(Internet of Everything)諮詢服務的負責人布拉德利(Joseph Bradley)說，如果沒有重要的判斷力，大數據絕對是毫無價值。

Nonetheless, heavyweights like General Electric Co., Intel Corp. and Qualcomm Inc. are jockeying for position.
然而，通用電氣(General Electric Co.)、英特爾(Intel Corp.)和高通(Qualcomm Inc.)等重量級企業都在紛紛搶佔有利地位。

'I've never seen our industry go as fast as it is, or create as much value,' says Marc Benioff, chief executive of Inc. 'It's a very magical time.'
Inc.首席執行長貝尼奧夫(Marc Benioff)說，我從未見過我們的行業如此迅猛地發展，或創造如此之大的價值。這是個極度神奇的時代。

Cisco estimates that the number of devices connected to the Internet will swell from about 10 billion today to 50 billion by 2020, as wireless links spread beyond smartphones and PCs to many other kinds of devices. The Silicon Valley giant's chief executive, John Chambers, is expected to discuss the opportunities Tuesday in a keynote speech at CES.
思科估計，隨着無線連接從智能手機和電腦擴散到衆多其他類型的設備，連接互聯網的設備數量將從當前的約100億迅速增加到2020年的500億。這家硅谷巨頭的首席執行長錢伯斯(John Chambers)預計週二在消費電子展的主旨演講中將探討相關機會。

Gartner Inc. puts the number of connected devices at fewer than 30 billion, but sees $309 billion in additional revenue for product and service suppliers by 2020 and $1.9 trillion in total economic impact from cost savings, improved productivity and other factors.
市場研究機構Gartner Inc.預計到2020年連網設備數量不到300億，但預計產品和服務提供商營收將增加3,090億美元，同時因成本節省、生產率提高和其他因素給經濟造成的影響總計達1.9萬億美元。

The vision of a world of smart gadgets emerged even before the Web. A.C. 'Mike' Markkula, a co-founder of Apple Computer Inc., had a brainstorm in the mid-1980s about combining functions for networking and controlling devices on a single chip. Those 'neurons,' as they came to be called, were expected to spread widely once their cost fell to around $1. But the company he founded, Echelon Corp., didn't hit that target and has had a bumpy history.
對於智能設備世界的設想早在互聯網時代之前就已有之。蘋果電腦公司(Apple Computer Inc.)聯合創始人馬庫拉("Mike" Markkula)在上世紀80年代就靈機一動提出了將網絡與控制設備的功能集合於一塊芯片上的想法。人們預計，這種後來被稱爲“神經元”的芯片成本一旦下降到1美元左右，將會廣爲傳播。但馬庫拉創建的公司Echelon Corp.未能達到這個目標，經歷了坎坷歷史。

'I keep kicking myself,' he says. 'I was 20 years too soon.'
馬庫拉說，我一直嚴厲自責。我的想法早了20年。

Chip makers did steadily push down the cost of adding intelligence to everyday gadgets, often to less than $5. Another driver has been the onslaught of smartphones and tablets, which can serve as handy Web-connected remote controls for devices in the home and workplace.
芯片生產商確實穩步壓低了將日常設備智能化的成本，這類成本通常不到5美元。另一個推動力是智能手機和平板電腦的橫空出世，它們可以作爲方便的家用和商用設備連網遙控器。

Potential benefits range from fairly prosaic to profound. Consumers, for example, can now use smartphones to remotely check if they locked doors, left the lights on or turned down the thermostat. Retailers can help smartphone users find goods on store shelves, and wirelessly pitch sales promotions. Parking meters can communicate with smartphone users.
可能的好處從平平無奇到意義深遠。例如，現在消費者可以利用智能手機遠程檢查自己是否鎖了門、忘記關燈或是否關掉了恆溫器。零售商可以幫助智能手機用戶找到商店貨架上的商品，並通過無線網絡進行促銷宣傳。停車計時器也可以與智能手機用戶交流。

Companies like Silver Spring Networks Inc. sell wireless meters to manage energy usage, while GE exploits data generated by sensors to monitor the health of jet engines and gas turbines.
Silver Spring Networks Inc.這樣的公司銷售管理能源使用的無線計量表，通用電器則利用傳感器產生的數據監控噴氣式發動機和燃氣渦輪的情況。

The opportunities have attracted a number of startups, some of which have managed to raise substantial funding from venture capitalists. The best-known is Nest Labs Inc., a maker of Wi-Fi-equipped thermostats and smoke detectors led by former Apple Inc. executive Tony Fadell. Another example is August, which is developing smart door locks and has raised $10 million to date.
這樣的機會吸引了一大批初創企業，其中一些成功地從風險投資家那裏籌集了可觀的資金。其中最有名的就是Nest Labs Inc.，該公司生產配備Wi-Fi的恆溫器和煙霧探測器，其領導者是蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)前高管法德爾(Tony Fadell)。另一個例子是生產智能門鎖的August，迄今已籌資1,000萬美元。

Others are leaning heavily on crowdfunding sites like Kickstarter and Indiegogo, as investors worry about the potential costs of hatching hardware startups--and the likelihood that entrenched companies will adapt their existing products to dominate Internet-of-Things opportunities.
其他一些初創企業嚴重依賴Kickstarter和Indiegogo之類的衆投網站，原因是投資者擔憂硬件初創企業的潛在孵化成本，以及地位穩固的公司將調整現有產品、主導“物聯網”機遇的可能性。

'The body count is quite high of startups that have made hardware,' says Jason Johnson, August's CEO and founder of the Internet of Things Consortium.
August首席執行長、非營利組織Internet of Things Consortium的創始人約翰遜(Jason Johnson)說，生產硬件的初創公司爲數衆多。

For those reasons, some startups are developing new services to help manage connected devices, while existing companies are modifying business models to exploit the data likely to flow from them. Insurance companies, for example, can respond to sensors and wireless connections in cars to charge drivers by the mile and speed they drive, instead of by where they live.
出於這些原因，一些初創公司在開發新的服務以幫助管理互聯設備，而現有的企業則紛紛修正業務模式，以利用互聯設備可能產生的數據。例如保險公司可以利用汽車中的傳感器和無線連接，依據駕駛里程數和行駛速度來向駕車者收取費用，而不是依據駕車者的居住地。

'The value of the devices will be secondary to the services they enable, ' says Thomas Lee, a Stanford University professor of electrical engineering and co-founder of Ayla Networks Inc., an online service hoping to help turn ordinary products into cloud-connected devices.
斯坦福大學(Standord University)電氣工程學教授、Ayla Networks Inc.聯合創始人Thomas Lee說，這些設備本身的價值相比它們使之成爲可能的服務來說是次要的。Ayla Networks是一個網絡服務，希望幫助將普通產品轉化爲雲聯網設備。

So far, however, smart-home products seem mainly to be attracting technology enthusiasts. Only 1% to 2% of American consumers surveyed by Forrester Research in mid-2013 were using five widely touted home-automation offerings. Some 28% of respondents said they were interested in controlling appliances with a smartphone, but 53% weren't.
然而到目前爲止，智能家用產品似乎主要還是吸引着科技迷。研究公司Forrester Research在2013年中調查的美國消費者中，僅有1%至2%的受調查者在使用五種廣受吹捧的家用自動化產品。大約28%的受調查者說，他們對於以智能手機控制家電有興趣，但53%的人表示沒興趣。Other hurdles face companies tackling the Internet of Things, including a fragmented assortment of wireless communications technologies. In home automation, for example, device makers face options that include Insteon, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Zigby, Z-Wave and earlier proprietary technologies.
還有其他一些障礙令企業難以抓住“物聯網”的機遇，包括無線通信技術形形色色的類型。比如在家庭自動化方面，設備生產商就面臨着多種選擇，包括Insteon、Wi-Fi、藍牙、Zigby、Z-Wave和更早的專利技術。

'It's not that things aren't getting connected--they are getting connected badly,' says Rob Chandhok, president of Qualcomm's interactive platforms unit.
高通的互動平臺部門負責人錢德霍克(Rob Chandhok)說，實際上並不是沒有實現“萬物互聯”，而是它們互聯的方式太糟糕了。

Qualcomm is trying to rally hardware makers around a technology called AllJoyn to help devices discover each other and collaborate. Meanwhile, startups trying to sell their own control devices are going through contortions; Revolv Inc., for example, is marketing a hub that can communicate using seven different radio technologies.
高通正試圖讓硬件生產商團結在一項名爲AllJoyn的技術周圍，幫助各種設備相互發現並協作。與此同時，那些試圖出售自己的控制設備的初創公司也在經歷種種扭曲；如Revolv Inc.正在營銷一款中央樞鈕設備，可以利用七種不同的無線電技術進行通信。

Mike Soucie, Revolv's co-founder and marketing head, says agreements on key communications technologies may be five to 10 years away. Any standards that do emerge are likely to apply to a single market--like home security or transportation--rather than to many industries, predicts Gilad Meiri, chief executive of Neura Inc., a startup developing technology to help orchestrate connected devices.
Revolv聯合創始人兼營銷負責人蘇西(Mike Soucie)說，可能要五至10年才能就關鍵的通信技術達成協議。初創公司Neura Inc.首席執行長梅里(Gilad Meiri)說，得以浮現的任何標準都有可能是適用於某個單一市場（如家庭安全或交通），而不是在多行業通行。Neura致力於開發相關技術，幫助協調互聯設備。

Assuming devices can communicate, manufacturers need conventions for telling them what to do and how to work together. Meanwhile, other basic questions remain--like just how much intelligence should everyday devices have?
假設不同設備之間能夠實現交流，生產商就需要有統一的標準來下達指令以及讓這些設備相互合作。同時也還有其他一些基本的問題――比如日常設備應當具備多高的智能？

Companies like Intel and ARM Holdings PLC, which license technology to chip makers, stress the benefits brought by processors that can run sophisticated software and protocols that allow them to connect directly to the Internet.
英特爾和ARM Holdings PLC這類向芯片生產商提供技術許可的公司強調可運行復雜軟件和協議的處理器所帶來的好處，這樣的處理器可讓設備直接連接互聯網。

But others believe such complex technology can reduce the reliability of home appliances and other devices, while raising the odds of bugs or security holes that could be exploited by attackers. They prefer simpler chips called microcontrollers, which are harder to reprogram to do unintended things.
但也有人認爲，如此複雜的科技可能降低家用電器和其他設備的可靠性，同時增加可能被攻擊者利用的安全漏洞的機率。他們更青睞名爲微控制器的較小芯片，這類芯片更難以通過再編程去從事計劃之外的任務。

'I want my refrigerator to be a thing; I don't want it to be a computer, ' says Shane Dyer, chief executive of Arrayent Inc., a startup marketing a Web-based service to manage microcontroller-powered devices.
初創公司Arrayent Inc.的首席執行長戴爾(Shane Dyer)說：我希望我的冰箱是個物件；我不希望它成爲一臺電腦。Arrayent營銷一項基於網絡的服務，用於管理以微控制器掌控的設備。

Moreover, the data generated by connected devices could be used in ways consumers don't like and create liabilities for companies. Chris Bruce, chief executive of Sproutling--a startup developing a smartphone-connected baby monitor--wonders if services that store data from connected devices might get subpoenas if something bad happens.
另外，聯網設備所產生的數據可能被用於消費者不願意的用途，並給企業帶來麻煩。初創公司Sproutling首席執行長布魯斯(Chris Bruce)在思考，如果發生不好的事情，那些存儲聯網設備所產生數據的服務會不會被訴諸法庭。該公司開發與智能手機相連的嬰兒監視器。

There are at least as many questions about the fast-growing flood of data from Internet-connected security cameras.
連接互聯網的安全攝像頭產生了迅速增長的數據洪流，這些數據也同樣引起了衆多問題。

'It is more than a little creepy,' says David Alan Grier, an associate professor of science and technology policy at George Washington University and 2013 president of the IEEE Computer Society. 'There is going to have to be some clear thinking and some clear understanding of what is going on.'
喬治華盛頓大學(George Washington University)科學與技術政策副教授、2013年IEEE Computer Society主席格里爾(David Alan Grier)說，這令人很有些毛骨悚然。未來人們必須清晰地思考和了解這一切是怎麼回事。