雙語財經新聞 第3期:石油時代仍在繼續(2)

What can we do? Well, two things: decrease oil consumption, preferably by a stiffef gasoline tax; and increase production, preferably by less-hostile regulation. The Qbama administratipn isn’t doing either. Instead, it’s touting a goal of 1 million electrie hybrid45 vehicles by 2015. This is more public relations than policy. The goal is probably unrealistic； first-year sales of the Chevy Volt may reach 25,000. Even if the 1 million is attained, the oil savings would ba tiny — perhaps 40,000 barrels a day, about two-tenths of 1 percent of U.S. consumption of 19 million barrels a day. There are already 240 million cars and light trucks using gasoline.

我們該怎麼辦？做兩件事:一是減少石油消費，主要是通過增收高額汽油稅；二 是增加石油產量，主要是放松管制。但是奧巴馬政府一樣也沒有做。相反,它在竭力 宣揚時至2015年，美國將擁有100萬輛充電式混合動力汽車，雖然這只是公衆的事 情,而不是政策。這一目標或許是不現實的:第一年，雪佛蘭伏特(一種插電式電動 汽車)可能僅達到2500年。即使這100萬輛的目標達到了，也僅僅能節約4000(_石 油，這只是美國每天1900萬桶石油消耗量的1%的20%(0.002),還有2400萬小轎車 和輕卡在使用石油。

By contrast, lost production from restrictions on drilling In the Gulf of Mexico oould total 200,000 barrels a day in 2012, by one government astimate. There hasn't been much enaouragement of on -shore drilling, either, despite batter prospects. In 2009, domestic oil production rose for the first time since 1991，in part because higher prices and hew drilling techniques (hydmulic fracturing, horizontal drilling) made it profitable to extract once-inaGcessible oil,

相形之下，根據政府估計,限制墨西哥灣石油開採造成的損失產量到了 2012年 可能高達每日20萬桶。儘管前景更好，但陸上開採也不會受到多大的鼓勵。2009年， 美國國內石油產量自1991年以來首次增加，部分是因爲油價上漲，新的開採技術 (水力壓裂，水平鑽井)令開採一度遙不可及的石油變得有利可圖。

A higher gasoline tax — gradually introduced to avoid wrecking the economic recovery — would dampen wild swings in fuel prints and push consumers to buy the morB-fuel-efftaient vehicles that the government is ordering auto companies to make. Americans have traditionally preferred bigger vehicles and, without the prod, might cling to old habits. There is a convergence7 here between energy and budget policy, An energy tax would help both. It would improve oil security and, with spending cuts, curb budget dBfiGits, Neither the Obama administration nor congressional RapubliGans seem willing to grasp the possibilities.

增加汽油稅將打壓住燃料價格的瘋狂波動，推動消費者購買政府正下令汽車 公司製造的高能效汽車，但要逐步實行以避免破壞經濟復甦。美國人一直喜歡排氣量大的汽車,這樣做可以不打破這個傳統’保持美國人的這一老習慣。能源與預算 政策之間在這個方面有重疊:能源稅將對雙方都有助益。由於削減開支,遏制預算 赤字，它將會提高石油安全。奧巴馬政府和國會似乎要緊緊抓住這項政策。

None of this will aohieve energy independ0nceM) which has been a mirage8 since it was proposed in the 1970s. Our need for imported oil — now about half our oonsumption 一 is simply too g_t to be overpoitie by produetlon inoreases or efficiencies. But we cGuld tetnper thait dependence and the cost of imports, which routinely exceeds $250 billion annually.

所有這一切都不會實現“能源自主”。這一概念自從在20世紀7(陣代提出以來， 就一直是海市蜃樓。我們對進口石油的需求——現在約佔我們的消耗量的一 半——太大了,無法靠擴大產量或者提高能效來克服。但是，我們是可以減輕依賴 性和降低進口成本的。進口成本一般來說每年超過2500億美元。

Barring unforeseen technological breakthroughs, oil isn’t going gently into the night. Thatconfirmed by recent projections of future energymartets: from the International Energy Agenqy in Paris; from the U.S. Energy Information Administration;; and from ExxonMobil. All make generous assumptions9 about gains from energy efficiencfes, inoludirig vehicles, and expanded renewable supplies. All still eonclude that oil will meet a quarter or mare of global energy demand for deGades. ExxonMobil projects that the number of light-duty vehicles worldwide； will grow 50 percent, to 1 2 billion, by 2Q30. Most will Use gasoline. Two-fiftha Qf the increase will occur in China. Competition for global oil supplies will intensify. We cannot escape that reality, even if we ignore it.

除非實現未預見到的技術突破，否則,石油就不會慢慢消失。最近對未來能源 市場的推測證實了這一點。這些推測來自巴黎的國際能源機構、美國的能源部情報 局以及埃克森美孚公司。所有上述機構和公司都對提高能效帶來的收益做出了慷 慨的假設。它們也都得出結論認爲,在幾十年時間裏,石油仍將滿足四分之一或更 多的全球能源需求。埃克森美孚公司預計，輕型汽車在2030年將在世界範圍內達到 1億2000萬輛，比現在增加50%,這些車將仍使用石油作爲動力，增長的2/5將在中 國。對全球石油供應的角逐將會日趨激烈。我們逃避不了這一現實，儘管我們對此 視而不見。