雙語財經新聞 第1期:2050世界展望
It's barely 2011 but Karen Ward at HSBC is looking ahead what the world will look like in the middle of the century.
By 2050, China is predicted to have overtaken the U.S. to become the world’s largest economy.
根據她的預測，到了2050年，中國將取代美國,成爲世界上最大的經濟體。India is forecast to be in third place, followed by Japan.
印度將位列第三，日本緊跟其後。
Nineteen of the top 30 will be today's “emerging economies,” which will collectively be bigger than the developed world.
屆時排名前30的經濟體中將有1外是今 天的“新興經濟體”,它們聚合起的經濟實力將超過發達國家世界。How does Europe look Ms. Ward puts Germany in fifth place, and on its heels in sixth, the U.K., both one slot lower than today.
歐洲的情況將如何呢？沃德女士預測德國將位居第五,接踵而至的是英國，排 名第六，兩個國家的排名均比目前低一位。France is down three slots in ninth, under Brazil and Mexico. Italy is down four places in 11th, below Canada and just ahead of Turkey.
法國則會下滑三位，排到第九,位於巴西 和墨西哥之後。意大利下滑四位,名列第11,排在加拿大之後，僅在土耳其之前。Spain is down two places, to 14th, below South Korea and just ahead of Russia.
西班牙下降兩個名次，至第14,落後於韓國，僅僅領先於俄羅斯。China’s annual economic output by 2050 is forecast to reach $24.6 trillion (in 2000 dollars), the U.S. $22.3 trillion, India $8.2 trillion,
預計到2050年，那時中國的年經濟產值將達到24.6萬億美元(參照2000年時美 元匯率),美國爲22.3萬億美元，印度爲8.2萬億美元，Japan $6.4 trillion, Germany $3.7 trillion and the U.K. $3.6 trillion. France is a $2.8 trillion economy and Italy a $2.2 trillion one.
日本是6.4萬億美元，德國3.7萬 億美元，英國3.6萬億美元,法國與意大利的經濟規模將分別達到2.8萬億和2.2萬億 美元。Why does the U.K. do relatively well? A good part of the answer is demography, a factor that helps the U.S. too.
爲什麼英國會取得相對不錯的成績呢?這一答案部分是得益於人口統計學,而 這一因素也幫助了美國。By 2050, the U.K. will have 72 million people, compared with Germany’s 71 million and France's 68 million, the forecast suggests.
預測顯示，到2050年，英國將擁有7200萬人口，相比之下， 德國人口數爲7100萬人，法國爲6800萬人。She adds: “The small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers.
她還說，在歐洲，那些人口少、老齡化且富裕的經濟體排名下降很大，Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down2 the grid significantly3, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark drop out of our Top 30 altogether.”
值得注意的就是瑞士和荷蘭的排位將直線下滑，而瑞典、比利時、奧地利、挪威和丹麥更是統 統跌出了前30名外。Of course, that doesn’t make them poor. The Netherlands, down eight places as the world’s 23rd economy, is predicted to have per capitaincome of $46,000 (in 2000 dollars),
當然,這並不會使它們變得窮困。荷蘭雖下滑八位，成爲排名第23位的世界經 濟體，但其人均收入預計將達到46000美元(參照2000年時美元匯率),compared with just over $26,000 today. Switzerland’s 9 million people are forecast to enjoy an average income of $84,000, compared with $39,000 today.
目前荷蘭人均 收人僅略高於26000美元。擁有900萬人口的瑞士人均收入目前爲39000美元，預計2050年將達到84000美元。China’s 1.4 billion people are forecast to have income of $17,000 per head, compared with $2,400.
而擁有14億人口的中國人均收人將從目前的2400美元增至1700C庚元。The calculations assume continuing open borders and no major wars or natural disasters.
這項預測做出的前提是假定持續開放邊境、不爆發大規模的戰爭或出現嚴重自然災害.They are based on three determinants, drawing from the work of Harvard University’s Robert Barro: the starting level of per capita income;
上述計算基於三個決定性因素一這些因素來源於哈佛大學羅伯特巴羅的著作:人均收入的起始水平;human capital, which relates to levels of education, health and fertility; and economic governance,
人力資本，這涉及教育、健康及生育水平;經濟管理,which refers to the variables such as the degree of monetary stability, property rights, democracy, the rule of law and government size,
這是指諸如金融體系的穩定性程度、產權、民主、法制以及政府規模等一些可變因素。
