雙語財經新聞 第35期:股票市盈率不斷下降(2)

Three months ago, analysts expected the companies in the Standard&Poor’ s 500-stock index to boost profits 18% in 2011. Now, they predict 15%. Mutual-fund, hedge-fund and other money managers put the increase at closer to 9%, according to a recent Citigroup survey, while Mr. Levkovich’s estimate is for 7% growth.

三個月前,分析師預計2011年標準普爾500指數成分股獲利將增長18%,目前 他們預計增長15%。根據花旗集團最近的調査，共同基金、對衝基金及其他資金管 理機構認爲增幅接近9% ’萊烏科維奇預計增長7%。

“The sustainability of earnings is in doubt,” said Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst at S&P in New York. “Estimates are still optimistic.

標準普爾駐紐約指數分析師西爾弗布拉特說,獲利的持續性讓人懷疑，但預估依舊樂觀。

Equally troublesome, analysts forecasts are becoming scattered. In May. the range between the highest and lowest analyst for^asts of S&500 earnings per share in 2011 was $12. Morgan Stanley predicted $85 a share, while UBS predicted $97 a share. Now, the spread is $15. Barclays said $80 a share; Deutsche Bank predicts $95.

同樣讓人煩惱的是,分析師的預估有多有少。5月時，分析師對2011年標準普爾 500^數成分股的每股盈餘進行了預估，最高和最低差值爲12美元。摩根士丹利預 計爲每股盈餘85美元，瑞銀預估爲97美元。目前最高和最低差值爲15美元，巴克萊 預計爲每股盈餘80美元，德意志銀行預計爲95美元。

When profit forecasts are tightly clustered, it signals to investors that there is consensus among prognostlcators4; when they diverge wifdiy, it shows a lack of clarity. The P/E ratio tends to fall as uncertainty rises, and vice versa.

當獲利預估差不多的時候，其向投資者暗示，分析師的預估達成了一致;當分 歧較大的時候，顯示市場缺乏清晰度，這時候市盈率通常因不確定性上升而下跌， 反之亦然。

“A stock is worth its future earnings, but that involves uncertainty,” said Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “The more uncertainty there is, the lower the P/E will be.” Not only is the Pf E ratio dropping, it also is in danger of losing some of its prominence as a market

賓州大學沃頓商學院金融學教授西格爾說，一隻股票與它未來的獲利相匹配,

但存在不確定性，如果不確定性越高，市盈率就越低。不僅是市盈率下降，就是該指 標也有可能失去一些作爲市場基準的聲望。

That is because, with profit and economic forecasts becoming less reliable, investors are focusing more on global economic events as they make trading decisions, parsing everything from Japanese government — debt statistics to shipping patterns in the Baltic region.

這是因爲隨着獲利和經濟預估越來越不靠譜’投資者在作交易決定時更注重 全球經濟事件，認真分析每一件事情,從日本國債統計數據到波羅的海地區船運模 式,不一而足。

To some extent this is in keeping with historical patterns. P/E ratios often shrink in size and significance during periods of uncertainty as investors focus on broader economic themes.

在某種程度上，這與以往模式相仿。通常在經濟具有不確定性時期，市盈率數 值和重要性雙雙下降，因投資者關注更廣泛的經濟事件。