雙語財經新聞 第34期 股票市盈率不斷下降(1)
As investors fixate on the global forces whipsawing the Markets, one fundamental measure of stock-market value, the price/earnings ratio, is shrinking in size and importance. And the diminution might not stop for a while.
The P/E ratio, thrust into prominence during the 1930s by vaJue investors Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, measures the amount of money investors are paying for a company’s earnings. Typically, companies that post strong earnings growth enjoy richer stock prices and fatter P/E ratios than those that don’t.
市盈率在20世紀30年代因價值投資者本傑明?格雷厄姆和戴維?多德而出名, 該指標衡量投資者爲公司獲利支付的資金。通常來說，獲利強勁的企業股價和市盈 率高於獲利較差的企業。
But while U.S. companies announced record profits during the second quarter, and beat forecasts by a comfortable 10% margin, on average, the stock market has dropped 5% this month.
儘管美國企業公佈第二季度獲利創下紀錄,利潤率平均較預估髙出10%，但本 月股市下跌5%。
The stock market’s average price/earnings ratio, meanwhile, is in free fall, having plunged about 35% during the past year, the largest 12-month decline since 2003. It now stands at about 14.9, compared with 23.1 last September, based on trailing 12-month earnings results. Basedon profit expectations over the next 12 months, the P/E ratio has fallen to 12.2 from about 14.5 in May.股市平均市盈率目前快速下滑，過去一年累計跌約35%，爲2003年以來12個月 的最大跌幅。根據對12個月獲利的追蹤，目前股市平均市盈率約爲14.9，去年9月時 92爲23.1。基於對未來12個月的獲利預估,市盈率已從5月時的14.5降至12.2。
So what explains the contraction? In short, economic uncertainty. A steady procession of bad news, from the European financial crisis to fears of deflation in the U.S., has prompted analysts to cut profit forecasts for 2011.那怎麼解釋這一矛盾呢？簡單說，是經濟的不確定性所致。從歐洲金融危機到 對美國通縮的擔憂，壞消息紛至沓來，令分析師紛紛調低了對2011年的獲利預估。
“The market is worrying not just about a slowdown, but worse,” said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist3 at Citigroup Global Markets in New York. “People want clarity before they make a decision with their money.”花旗環球金融駐紐約美國股市首席策略師萊烏科維奇說，市場不僅在擔心經 濟放緩，而且在擔心更糟糕的事情，人們在對資金作出決定前，他們希望把情況弄明白。
