雙語財經新聞 第46期:局勢動盪金價就一定會上漲嗎?(1)
With the recent earthquake in Japan and the civil war in Libya, many investors expected gold to soar easily to $1,500. Experts said, however, that gold does not necessarily rise during wars or crises; it all depends on a series of factors including the economic context of the time.
“The generalization is, there is no generalization. When there is a catajstrophe1 people sell everything,” said Mark Leibovit，a chief market strategist for VRTrader. com. “I’m not banking on the disasters. When bad news hits, I’m afraid everything will drop,” he told Kitco News.
首席市場策略師馬克?萊博維 奇說規律就是沒有規律。一場災害發生後,人 們會拋售任何東西。”他在接受金拓新聞採訪時 說我不會把寶壓在災難上，要是有什麼壞消息 的話，恐怕所有的投資品種都會大跌。”In a March 15 report, HSBC said, “Historically, estimates of drops in commodity demand due to natural disasters or other economy tend to be exaggerated. This was the case with previous earthquakes in Japan, attacks in the US on September 11, 2001, and the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean,”
在3月15日的一份報告中，匯豐說“從歷史上 看，由於自然災害或其他經濟原因而引發的大宗 商品價格下滑預期，其反應總是過度的。以前的 日本大地震、911恐怖襲擊以及2004年印度洋海晡 都無一例外。”
The yellow metal has become a new currency but that doesn’t prevent it from dropping when there is a disaster said Leibovit. “Basically since 2001 if you look at the stock market and gold they more or less track each other which is sort of interesting you’d think it would go the other way，” he said.
黃色金屬已經成爲了一種新的貨幣，但是在 災難發生時，並不能防止其價格下滑。“自2001年 以來，金市和股市基本上或多或少都會相互追 蹤——這種現象很有趣，因爲大部分人會認爲兩者應該呈現負相關性”，他說。Leibovit was surprised by gold’s performance during the crisis of October 1987 when stock markets around the world crashed. “Gold really didn’t do that well it had an initial pop but it really didn’t provide the hedge I wish I could tell you categorically that gold is a hedge, he said.
萊博維奇對1987年股市暴跌期間的金價走 勢感到吃驚。“黃金的表現並不怎麼好，黃金一開 始小幅上揚但是並沒有提供很好的對衝性,我希 望我能告訴你’從分類上說，黃金是一種風險對衝 資產。，’他說。The price of gold was pegged in London at $465.50 on Friday, Oct 16, explained technical analyst, Peter DeGraaf. “When the stock market dropped precipitously on (Black) Monday October 19, gold initially rose to $481.00, as investors sold stocks and searched for a “safe haven.” Surprisingly, the following day the price fell back to $464.30, as the need for cash became greater than the demand for a “safe haven.” When things settled down gold slowly rose, to end the year at $484.00,” said DeGraaf.
10月16日週五，倫敦盤黃金價格在465.5美元 左右企穩，技術分析師皮特?格拉夫解釋說。‘‘而 在10月19日黑色星期一,股市突然直線下跌時，投 資人紛紛拋售股票，同時爲資金尋求避險天堂，此 時，黃金暴漲至481美元。而讓人大跌眼鏡的是，第 二天黃金價格又回落至464.30美元，原因是人們 對資金的需求大於避險需求。當事件有所平息， 金價又開始緩慢回升，最終當年的收盤價報在484.00美元,”格拉夫說。The conclusion drawn from gold’s reaction to the market crash in 1987 is that the price of gold in the long term is dependent upon the integrity of the currencies that represent gold, rather than upon the political and economic events that dominate the news of the day, said DeGraaf.
從黃金價格對1987年股市暴跌的反應得出的結論是，黃金價格從長期而言依 靠的是體現黃金價格的貨幣的整體性，而不是當天發生的重大政治和經濟事件。George Gero, Senior Vice President Financial Consultant for RBC Wealth Management said it all depends on the type of crisis. Gero reflectsback on the Iraqi war. “The next day after the shock and awe bombing, oil dropped $40 bucks, and so did gold，” he said.
RBC財富管理高級副總裁兼金融諮詢師喬治?羅格說，這要看危機是什麼類型 的。羅格回顧了伊拉克戰爭開始時的情況。“第二天恐慌情緒爆發，石油大跌40美元,黃金也下跌了40美元。”He cited last summer’s debt crisis in Greece as another example, noting that gold dropped $50 dollars that day. “Everybody thought that the ECB and Greece were going to sell gold to finance the bailout2 which didn’t happen. So the behavior of gold during a crisis depends on the type of crisis and whether gold is needed for liquidity purposes to finance war or a bailout,” he said.
他又以去年夏天希臘爆發債務危機時的情況爲例,當天黃金下跌50美元。“所 有人都認爲ECB和希臘政府準備拋售黃金爲援助方寒提供財政支持，而事實上，根 本沒有發生這樣的事情。所以危機期間的黃金錶現取決於這場危機的類型,以及這 場危機是否需要黃金作爲流動資產,來資助戰爭或是援助行動。”Gero also looked back to the assassination of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in 1981. “The media kept telling the world there was no assassination until the next afternoon. Gold acted totally contrary to what everyone thought because of the withholding of the actual assassination news. ”
羅格還回顧了 1981年埃及總統安瓦爾?薩達特遇刺身亡的事件，“直到第二天 下午前，媒體還一直對外聲稱根本沒有刺殺這回事兒。金價的表現完全與人們預期 相反，正是因爲對刺殺事件的隱瞞不發。”So in the wake of the Libyan civil war and Japanese earthquake, why has gold not moved upwards? Gero replied, “The ultimate safe haven has turned out to be the liquidity and the safety of the United States and Canada.”He said that gold has been so well publicized and so well -owned that people are now looking at silver as having more volatility left than gold.
所以就利比亞內戰和日本大地震而言，爲什麼金價沒有大幅上揚呢？羅格回答 道:“最終，這個原先的避險天堂成爲了保障美國和加拿大流動性和安全性的工具。” 他說,黃金已經很大衆化了,現在人們更青睞白銀，因爲其上漲空間比黃金大得多。
