雙語財經新聞 第47期:局勢動盪金價就一定會上漲嗎?(2)
Jeff Christian, Managing Director of New York based commodities research firm, CPM Group said, “We have always been kind of snotty about this what we said is that those political events that are important to gold are important to gold, and those that are not.”
For Christian, a pivotal event occurred during the Iran-lraq war in 1987 when Iraq attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Bahrain. The Kuwaiti government eventually went to the US government asking for protection of their oil tankers, said Christian. The US ultimately established a massive military presence in the Persian Gulf and most, himself included, expected this to be bullish3 for gold, said Christian. To the surprise of most, the price of gold fell.
對克里斯琴而言，在1987年兩伊戰爭期間發生了一粧重大事件，當時伊拉克攻 擊了科威特位於巴林附近的石油槽罐。科威特政府最終向美國政府求救，保護其儲 油罐,克里斯琴說。美國最終在波斯灣地區開展了大規模軍事行動,和大部分人一 樣，包括他自己在內都認爲此次事件應該使黃金看漲。但是讓大多數人震驚的是， 金價居然下跌了。“We called some of our clients in the Persian Gulf, in Kuwait and said, “why aren’t you guys buying gold?” And they said, “our problem is solved from our perspective the US navy sailing into Persian Gulf, represents a massive reduction in political and military risk,” he said.
克里斯琴說:“我們聯繫了我們在波斯灣地區和科威特的客戶,我們問他們，爲 什麼你們沒有買黃金？他們說，在我們看來,美國海軍駛入波斯灣的那一刻起，我們 的問題已經解決了。這意味着政治和軍事風險大大降低了。”
Christian also referred to 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. This precipitated the two-month-long undeclared Falklands War between Argentina and the United Kingdom and resulted in the defeat and withdrawal of the Argentine forces.
克里斯琴還指出1%2年阿根廷人侵福克蘭羣島事件。這場耗時2個月之長的持 久戰並未得到阿根廷和英國的宣戰，結果是阿根廷軍隊失敗並且撤軍。“There were people in the gold market who said, “why is gold not responding to this? and we said, 4because it is Argentina over Britainin the South Atlantic in the Falkland islands which do not produce gold,” he said.
“金市中有不少人說，爲什麼黃金爲對此次事件作出反應？ ”我們也這樣說，“因 爲這是阿根廷在南太平洋對英國的作戰，弗蘭克羣島不出產黃金，”克里斯琴說。Christian said that Chile could go to war with Peru again and it probably wouldn’t really affect the price of gold because it is not central to the gold market. “If something happened in a place like Pakistan versus India where you have two people who are very much gold and silver oriented then you probably would see a reaction.”
克里斯琴說，智利可能再次向祕魯開戰,但是這不會真正影響黃金的價格，因 爲這兩個國家在黃金市場上都不處在舉足輕重的地位。“如果像在巴基斯坦和印度 這種地方發生戰爭，兩國人民均持有大量黃金和白銀，這時你就會看到你要的反應了。”
Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Invest ors, said gold will go up if there is a prolonged war regardless of the country. “If it is under siege4 for a long time that country’s currency gets destroyed, so gold in that country’s currency will take off. The country must raise money through taxes or issued bonds to fund the conflict. A quick, slam bam, thank you M’am is not really a sustainable reason for gold to rally，” he said.美國全球投資人CEO，弗蘭克?福爾摩斯說，無論戰爭發生在哪個國家，黃金都 可能因爲戰事的況日持久而走高。“長期處於戰火煎熬的國家，該國的貨幣會遭到 毀滅性打擊’之後黃金將取代該國貨幣。國家必須通過稅收或是發放債券籌措資 金，以此爲衝突事件提供資金支持。突發性、偶發性事件不會成爲金價持續上漲的 理由”,他說。
Like Christian, Holmes was also expecting gold to spike during Operation Desert Storm. “That was a factor that surprised me and that is when I started doing a lot of research and looking at that fear trade,” said Holmes.和克里斯琴一樣，福爾摩斯在沙漠風暴期間也認爲黃金會大幅上漲。“那是一 個使我吃驚的因素，而那也是我做了大量研究並對恐慌性交易判研後的結論”，福 爾摩狐
The “fear trade” according to Holmes, is driven by negative real interest rates 一where inflation is greater than the nominal interest rate — and deficit spending. Whenever you have negative real interest rates coupled with5 increased deficit spending, gold tends to rise in that country’s currency, he said.據福爾摩斯說“恐慌性交易”就是因負利率(當通脹率大於名義利率時)和赤字 開支引發的交易。當一個國家發生負利率，同時出現赤字開支的時候,以該國幣種 計價的黃金必然出現上漲。
When examining the recent earthquake in Japan, Holmes said the impact on gold may not be felt short-term but long-term it could be bullish. The $500 billion needed to be spent in Japan will inevitably be good news for gold, said Holmes. “We are going to see some unique social spending on housing which will put big demand on all commodities,” he said.在評估近期日本大地震將會造成的影響時，福爾摩斯說，可能短期不會對金價 造成影響，但是從長期而言必定上漲。日本大約需要花費5_乙美元，這對黃金無 疑是好消息。“我們會看到日本會在住宅方面投入社會花銷，這將對所有商品構成 龐大的需求"他說。
