FT社評 亞洲消費者引領經濟復甦

Not every corner of the global economy is mired in gloom.

並非全球經濟的所有角落都沉浸在悲觀氣氛之中。

Asia is leading a gentle recovery in emerging market gross domestic product growth rates as India and some countries in Southeast Asia enjoy a surge in economic expansion.

亞洲正引領新興市場國內生產總值(GDP)增速溫和回升，印度和東南亞一些國家正經歷經濟的快速擴張。

Indonesia’s economy, the largest in the region, grew by 5.2 per cent in the second quarter of the year, recording the fastest year-on-year expansion for 10 quarters.

今年第二季度，東南亞最大經濟體印尼的經濟增長5.2%，爲10個季度最快同比增速。

The Philippines also delivered a better than expected performance, growing by 7 per cent in the second quarter, the fastest pace for three years.

菲律賓的增長表現也好於預期，今年第二季度增長7%，爲3年最快。

India, which ranks seventh after France in global GDP rankings, posted an official 7.9 per cent growth rate in the first quarter of the year, a sharp improvement on the previous quarter.

今年第一季度，在全球GDP排行榜上排在法國之後、名列第七的印度錄得7.9%的官方增速，較上一個季度大有改善。

Such numbers have an importance that extends beyond the countries themselves.

這些數據的重要性超過了這些國家本身。

Not only do they reaffirm Asia’s position as by far the fastest-growing region of the world.

它們不僅再次確認了亞洲全球增長最快地區（以大差距領先於其他地區）的地位.

They also suggest that the average growth rate for emerging market economies — which include most Asian countries aside from Japan and Singapore — is set to outperform the average growth rate in developed economies by a wider margin.

還顯示出，新興市場經濟體（包括除日本和新加坡之外的多數亞洲國家）的平均經濟增速將以更大幅度超過發達經濟體。

This may be important to portfolio investors who had turned cooler towards emerging markets over the past five years as they watched the growth differential between emerging and developed worlds narrow significantly.

這可能對證券投資者很重要，過去5年，他們對新興市場態度轉冷，因爲他們目睹了新興世界與發達世界的增長差距顯著縮窄。

True, Asia’s recovery remains unlikely to replicate the heady days before the financial crisis.

確實，亞洲的復甦仍不太可能回到金融危機之前那個令人興奮的年代。

A collapse in export earnings coupled with a fall in commodity prices and slackening demand from China has conspired to dampen activity.

出口利潤下挫、再加上大宗商品價格下跌和中國需求疲軟，共同導致了經濟活力的減弱。

Nevertheless, there are signs that Asia is adapting to new realities by reducing its reliance on exports and stoking up the fires of consumer spending.

然而，有跡象顯示，通過減少對出口的依賴以及刺激消費者支出，亞洲正在適應新的現實。

Capital Economics, a research company, sees some decoupling of trade and consumer spending, noting that across the region exports were barely positive in the second quarter but domestic demand grew at its fastest since the final quarter of 2012.

研究機構凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)認爲，貿易和消費者支出有所脫鉤，該機構指出，今年第二季度，亞洲出口勉強爲正，但國內需求增速卻爲自2012年第四季度以來最快。

The splurge in consumer spending represents an opportunity for companies worldwide as middle class populations in India, China and Southeast Asia discover the delights of consumer credit to engage with their material dreams.

消費者支出飆升代表着全球公司的一個機遇——印度、中國和東南亞的中產階級人羣發現了利用消費信貸觸摸物質夢的快樂。

Robust population growth, sharply rising incomes and an upsurge in purchases online make the Asia consumer phenomenon increasingly accessible to companies in Europe and the US.

強勁的人口增長、收入大幅增加以及在線購買量飆升，讓越來越多的歐美公司得以從亞洲的消費熱中分一杯羹。

However, such optimism is tinged with a concern that in some countries households are already spending well beyond their means — enticed by cheap credit as interest rates fall to historic lows.

然而，這種樂觀情緒伴隨着一種擔憂：在一些國家，隨着利率降至歷史低點，受到廉價信貸吸引的家庭的支出已遠遠超出這些家庭的收入。

Capital Economics names South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia as places where middle class exuberance might be running over.

凱投宏觀認爲，在韓國、泰國和馬來西亞這幾個地方，中產階級繁榮可能快要到頭了。

The other big detractor from the emerging narrative of Asia as a locomotive for global growth is China.

亞洲作爲全球增長火車頭這一新興趨勢的另一個巨大不利因素是中國。

Although the world’s second-largest economy grew by 6.7 per cent in the second quarter, the quality of its growth is being scrutinised closely.

儘管這個全球第二大經濟體在今年第二季度增長6.7%，但增長質量正受到密切審視。

With a corporate debt load equal to 171 per cent of GDP — a ratio more than double that of the US and Europe — Chinese companies are racking up huge nonperforming loans in the banking system as returns on investments dwindle.

公司債務與中國GDP之比爲171%，是美國和歐洲的兩倍多，因此，隨着投資回報下降，中國公司正在銀行體系中累積起鉅額的不良貸款。

Before the crisis in 2008, China needed just $1 of credit to deliver $1 of GDP; that ratio is now six to one, says Morgan Stanley.

在2008年金融危機之前，中國僅需1塊錢信貸就能創造一塊錢的GDP；但摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，如今需要6塊錢信貸才能創造1塊錢的GDP。

Still, the improvement in headline growth for Asia should prompt optimism if not yet celebration in a world blighted by monetary exhaustion in Europe and Japan.

然而，在這個遭受歐洲和日本貨幣枯竭打擊的世界中，亞洲整體增速的提高應會促使人們樂觀起來，甚至開始慶祝。