巴菲特:經濟顯示重大復甦跡象
【英文原文】
Buffett Says Economy Showing 'Significant' Signs Of Life
Warren Buffett, the chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the economy is showing significant signs of life for the first time, and pointed to recent results at the businesses under the Berkshire umbrella as evidence.
There is 'significant improvement' at Berkshire's industrial units, including Marmon and metalworking company Iscar, he said Sunday, expanding on comments he made a day earlier at his company's annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Neb.
Berkshire operations that provide luxury products such as its jewelry businesses or plane leaser NetJets are recovering, albeit off a 'very, very low base.' But the company's housing-related businesses, such as carpet maker Shaw or brick manufacturer Acme, have yet to recover.
'We're not seeing it in housing. But I don't want to see it in housing. I want to have a sustainable recovery' in the housing market and the homebuilding industry, he said, instead of the irrational building that provided the fuel for the last collapse in the housing market.
Mr. Buffett's pronouncements on the economy are studied by investors large and small, and the Berkshire units he's acquired over four decades give him a unique perspective on the health of the country. His firm listed about 80 operating companies in its latest annual report, and many send data for him to review weekly.
The firm has units that make paint, manufacture mobile homes, lease trucks, sell ice cream and operate power plants, giving the world's third-richest man a glimpse into all corners of the economy. Mr. Buffett began lamenting the poor sales at the units in late 2008, and has said previously that some businesses were forced to close plants and fire workers. The companies Berkshire owned at the end of that year employed about 10% fewer people 12 months later.
Now, Iscar and other Berkshire units are hiring again, Mr. Buffett said, adding that he expected U.S. unemployment would continue to fall as the economy improves.
'American business is improving, from everything I see now,' he said. 'At what rate unemployment will fall, I don't know, but it will fall.'
Berkshire on Saturday reported first-quarter profit of $3.6 billion, compared with a loss of $1.5 billion a year earlier, fueled by drastically improved investments, better underwriting results and a rise in income from its manufacturing, service and retailing operations.
【中文譯文】
巴菲特：經濟顯示重大復甦跡象
伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)董事長兼首席執行長巴菲特(Warren Buffett)說，經濟首次顯示出重大復甦跡象，並以伯克希爾旗下各項業務近期的業績爲證。
巴菲特週日說，伯克希爾旗下Marmon和金屬加工公司Iscar等實業類公司的業績明顯好轉。這是詳述了他一天前在內布拉斯加州奧馬哈的公司年度股東大會上的話。
伯克希爾旗下的珠寶公司或飛機租賃公司NetJets等提供奢侈品的業務都出現復甦，不過基數非常低。但該公司與房產相關的業務，如地毯生產商Shaw或制磚商Acme還沒有起色。
巴菲特說，我們尚未看到房市的復甦，但我想看到的不是這個。我想看到房地產市場和住宅建造行業的持續復甦，而不是推動房市此前崩潰的非理性建造活動。
大大小小的投資者都會仔細研究巴菲特對經濟的論斷。而他在四十餘年時間裏收購的歸入伯克希爾旗下的衆多子公司令他對美國經濟狀況有種獨特的視角。伯克希爾最新的年度財報列出了80家自營公司，其中許多公司都會每週發送數據供巴菲特審閱。
伯克希爾旗下公司的業務涵蓋油漆生產、活動房屋製造、卡車租賃、冰淇淋銷售和發電廠運營等等，令這位身家全球第三的富豪得以瞭解經濟的方方面面。2008年底，巴菲特開始嘆息各個子公司銷售不佳的情況，在那之前還說過一些公司被迫關閉工廠、解僱工人。伯克希爾旗下公司2008年底的僱員總人數在12個月後減少了約10%。
巴菲特說，現在Iscar和其他伯克希爾子公司再度開始增加人手，並表示他預計隨着美國經濟好轉，失業率將繼續下降。
巴菲特說，從我現在所見的情況看，美國商業正在好轉。至於失業率會以何種速度下降，我不得而知，但肯定會下降。
伯克希爾週六公佈一季度利潤36億美元，上年同期爲虧損15億美元，業績大幅好轉的原因是投資極大改善、承保業績好轉，以及製造、服務和零售業務收入增長。
