FT社評 新興經濟體亟需結構改革

It was not too long ago that the emerging markets were regularly eulogised as the permanent powerhouses of the world economy. During the 2000s, with excitable neologisms like Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) coined in their honour, the big emerging economies drove a boom in global output and trade.

直到不久前，新興市場還常常被譽爲世界經濟的“永動機”。在2000年代，大型新興經濟體推動了全球產出和貿易的繁榮，人們創造了“金磚國家”（Brics，指巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非）等有意思的新詞向其致敬。

And when the rich world suffered a dislocating shock during the financial crisis in 2008, many middle-income nations, with relatively resilient banking systems and large foreign exchange reserves, rode out the turbulence and rapidly resumed growing.

而且，當2008年金融危機讓富裕世界陷入混亂時，許多中等收入國家憑藉抵禦力相對較強的的銀行體系和龐大的外匯儲備走出了動盪，並迅速恢復了增長。

That euphoria, which has been subsiding for years, is now at a low ebb. This week the World Bank warned of a “structural slowdown” as developing nations ceded the leading role on global growth to the rich world. A decline in import demand means emerging markets subtracted from world trade growth in the first quarter of this year for the first time since 2009.

幾年來，這種欣快感一直在消退，如今則已陷入低潮。上週，世界銀行(World Bank)警告稱，發展中國家面臨一場“結構性放緩”，它們把全球增長“領頭羊”的地位讓給了富裕世界。進口需求下滑意味着，今年第一季度新興市場對世界貿易增長的貢獻出現了下降，這是2009年來的首次。

In reality, weaknesses within the emerging world have been evident for some time. Few countries have built the kind of diverse high-productivity economy that will propel them into the first rank of rich states.

事實上，新興世界的弱點已暴露出來一段時間了。沒有幾個新興國家建立起了那種足以推動它們躋身世界一流富國行列的多元化高效經濟。

According to a study by the International Monetary Fund, the slowdown in trend growth in middle-income countries has been in train since the crisis. For years, weak productivity improvements were masked by low interest rates, helped by quantitative easing in the US, and by high commodity prices.

根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的一份研究報告，自金融危機以來，中等收入國家的趨勢增長率下降就開始了。多年來，生產率改善進展不大，這一點被低利率（得益於美國的量化寬鬆）和大宗商品價格高企掩蓋住了。

Those props are now being kicked away and, with the US Federal Reserve yet to raise rates, there may still be a bigger squeeze to come. The growth model of countries like Brazil has been exposed. Chronic deficits, high inflation and an overvalued exchange rate have left the country with no alternative but tighter monetary policy and a recession. The evaporation of a favourable external environment exposes the past failure to reform. One or two leaders, such as Narendra Modi in India and Joko Widodo in Indonesia, are belatedly trying to reorient government spending away from wasteful subsidies and towards productive investment, but it will take time.

如今，這些支撐因素正被移除，考慮到美聯儲(Fed)早晚會加息，新興世界未來或許還將面臨更大的擠壓。巴西等國家的增長模式已暴露於風險中。長期赤字、高通脹率和被高估的匯率，使得巴西別無選擇，只能收緊貨幣政策、接受衰退。有利外部環境的消失，暴露出這些國家過去未能實施改革。有一兩位新興國家領導人，比如印度的納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)和印尼的佐科•維多多(Joko Widodo)，進行了姍姍來遲的嘗試——調整政府開支、減少浪費性補貼、增加有助提高生產率的投資，但這些嘗試要想見效還需要時間。

The process of poor countries getting rich, much of which used to be driven by export-led manufacturing, has become more complex. Emerging economies are routinely turning away from manufacturing at much lower levels of income than earlier waves of industrialisers. An apparent structural fall in trade growth relative to overall expansion, probably as a result of nations like China taking more of their supply chains in-country, means less chance for other developing countries to export their way to prosperity.

以往窮國主要靠出口導向的製造業實現富裕，如今這一過程變得更加複雜了。相對於前幾波實現工業化的國家，新興經濟體如今常常在製造業收入降到低得多的水平時才放棄製造業。貿易增長相對於總體增長似乎發生了結構性下降——原因很可能是中國等國將供應鏈更多地轉移到國內——意味着其他發展中國家通過出口實現繁榮的機會更小了。

Many development economists talk of a “middle-income trap”, where economies stall at relatively low levels of per capita gross domestic product. To increase trend growth, emerging markets will have to address the full range of structural impediments to expansion. This means not just the traditional issues of streamlining regulation and building infrastructure but also the more complex challenges of improving education, promoting competition and designing regulation to develop high value-added service sectors.

許多研究發展問題的經濟學家會提到“中等收入陷阱”，這是指經濟發展到人均國內生產總值(GDP)還相對較低時就停滯不前了。爲了提高趨勢增長率，新興經濟體必須清除阻礙經濟擴張的一切結構性障礙。這意味着，不僅要解決理順監管和建設基礎設施等傳統問題，而且要應對更復雜的挑戰——改善教育，促進競爭，以及進行監管設計、以發展高附加值的服務業。

Even if that happens, it is unlikely to show big improvements in the short term. Economies do not instantaneously leap on to a long-term high-growth path even if the right policies are followed. But if emerging countries are to return to leading global economic growth, there is no other way. For emerging markets, the years of easy growth from cheap money and fat commodity earnings are over. The need for reform has now become acute.

即便做到以上這些，也不太可能令經濟在短期內出現重大改善。就算採取了正確政策，各經濟體也不會立刻跳上一條長期高增長之路。但如果新興經濟體想要奪回引領全球經濟增長的領頭羊地位，就沒有其他選擇。對新興經濟體而言，廉價貨幣和豐厚大宗商品利潤帶來輕鬆增長的年代已經過去了。如今它們亟需改革。