中國崛起需要推進結構性改革

In 1980, the population of the People’s Republic of China numbered close to a billion, and most were among the poorest people on eArth. China produced barely a third as much steel as the US. Thirty five years later, it makes more steel in six weeks than the US does in a year, and has engineered the greatest fall in poverty in world history. Set beside the arrival of China into the global economy, no event since the industrial revolution has had a greater impact — not the financial crisis, nor even the collapse of the Soviet Union.

1980年，中華人民共和國人口接近10億，其中大部分屬於全球最貧困人羣，鋼產量勉強達到美國的三分之一。35年後的今天，中國6周的鋼產量就比美國一年的還要多，並且實現了世界史上最大規模的減貧。工業革命以來，沒有任何事件比中國融入全球經濟更具影響力——金融危機、甚至蘇聯解體都無法與之匹敵。

The Middle Kingdom is still — just — the world’s most populous country, but the number of its people that are of working age is on a downward trajectory. There is growing evidence of labour shortages, wages rising faster than productivity, and of the flow of migrant labour from the rural interior slowing sharply. Named for the Nobel Prize-winner Sir Arthur Lewis, countries that hit this Lewis Turning Point usually see economic growth fall. Handling lower growth will preoccupy China’s rulers in the decades to come, and provide the rest of the world with much to think about.

“中央王國”如今依然是世界第一人口大國（不過與第二名的差距已非常小），但勞動年齡人口數量呈下降趨勢。勞動力短缺、工資上漲快於生產率增長、以及內陸農村地區農民工外流大幅放緩的跡象越來越多。一個國家到達“劉易斯拐點”(Lewisian Turning Point)後，經濟增長通常會減速。這個拐點是以諾貝爾獎得主阿瑟•劉易斯爵士(Sir Arthur Lewis)的名字命名的。未來幾十年，低增長將成爲困擾中國統治者的主要問題，如何應對這個問題將爲世界其餘國家帶來許多值得思考的東西。

It is important not to exaggerate the significance of this turning point. While the sheer number of its people mesmerises the outside world, China has long been far more than a sweatshop. Closer examination shows a pattern of growth based more upon increased capital than labour, and by combining the two more cleverly. In recent years, investment has made up more than half of GDP, while the reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s triggered a 30 year-long spurt of productivity growth.

重要的是不應誇大這個拐點的影響。儘管中國龐大的人口數量令外界印象深刻，但這個國家早已徹底擺脫血汗工廠的身份。更仔細的研究顯示，中國的增長模式更多基於資本（而非勞動力）的增加、以及資本與勞動力更巧妙的結合。近年來，投資對中國國內生產總值(GDP)的貢獻超過一半，而鄧小平上世紀70年代啓動的改革，引發了一場長達30年的生產率井噴式增長。

The cheap goods churning out of Chinese factories were a boon to the developed world, helping to bring about a long spell of non-inflationary growth. There is no need to fear the loss of this tailwind; India alone could add three times more people to its workforce than China will lose, and other countries such as Nigeria and Bangladesh are on a similar upswing. The challenge is for such countries to upgrade their infrastructure, improve their business environment, and thereby come to compete effectively for the business.

中國工廠大量生產出來的廉價商品曾造福發達世界，幫助後者實現了較長時期的無通脹增長。擔心這種福利消失是沒有必要的；僅印度一國的勞動力增加量，可能就三倍於中國的勞動力減少量，而尼日利亞和孟加拉國等國家也將出現類似的勞動力大幅增長。這些國家面臨的挑戰在於升級基礎設施、改善營商環境、從而能在爭取業務時進行有效的競爭。

As much as to adapt to this demographic slowdown, China’s task is to wean itself away from a risky overreliance on investment. Its incremental capital output ratio, the GDP eked from each extra unit of capital, has deteriorated, and will be further undermined by rising wages. Shifting investment away from construction and towards productivity-enhancing machinery is one way forward; by 2017, China is forecast to have more robots installed in its manufacturing plants than any other country.

與適應這種人口變化趨勢同樣重要的是，中國須擺脫危險的、對投資的過分依賴。中國的增量資本產出率（衡量每增加一單位資本能產生多少GDP）已經惡化，而且會因工資日益上漲進一步變糟。一條出路是，減少對建築業的投資，增加對能提高生產率的機械設備的投資；到2017年，中國工廠中的機器人裝機量預計將超過其他任何國家。

But even better is for Beijing to push through structural reforms, such as subjecting more state-owned enterprises to market discipline and liberalising the financial sector. This last reform also ought to help encourage ordinary Chinese consumers to open their wallets, thereby rebalancing growth towards household spending.

但更好的出路是，中國政府推進結構性改革，比如讓更多國企接受市場的約束和放開金融業。這場最新的改革還應該有助於鼓勵普通中國消費者打開錢包，從而增加居民消費所佔的比重、讓經濟增長恢復平衡。

China’s leaders have never been complacent about the country’s growth prospects, even as rivals remain daunted. Somehow they need to provide higher living standards, clean up their polluted cities and husband a water supply shrinking to dangerously low levels. There is a reason that international busybodies like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank clamour tirelessly for more structural reform: in the end economic growth comes down to producing more from less. The past 30 years are proof that China can pull it off. The dwindling number of workers in China will not so much change the agenda as reinforce it.

儘管中國的增長前景依然讓競爭對手自嘆不如，但中國領導人從未因此自滿過。他們需要設法提供更高的生活水平、清除城市污染、節約正萎縮至危險水平的水資源。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)等國際組織不知疲倦地大聲呼籲加大結構性改革是有道理的：經濟增長歸根結底要靠用更少的資源生產出更多東西。中國用過去30年證明了自己能夠做到這點。勞動年齡人口減少不會改變這個議程，只會進一步強化它。