漸進式改革符合中國國情

China pessimists are claiming vindication as growth slows in the world's second-largest economy. Optimists point out that Beijing has fiscal room to respond but there are risks to any short-term policy measures. A surge in bank-financed investment, for example, could boost growth but it would likely also increase the stock of non-performing loans in the banking system and set back the goal of rebalancing growth by promoting private consumption. An ageing population and a rocky leadership transition strengthen the bears' case.

隨着世界第二大經濟體增長放緩，對中國持悲觀看法的人士聲稱自己的論點得到印證。對中國持樂觀看法的人士則指出，中國政府在財政方面有應對增長放緩的操作空間，但任何短期政策措施都帶有風險。例如，由銀行貸款支撐的投資飆升雖然能夠推動增長，但同時也很可能導致銀行體系內的不良貸款存量增加，挫敗旨在通過提振民間消費來實現增長再平衡的努力。中國人口的老齡化和領導層換屆的坎坷過程也對悲觀人士的論點形成了支撐。

However, there are grounds for hope. Recent political turmoil, including the Bo Xilai affair, put reactionary forces in the Communist Party of China on the defensive. Meanwhile, reform-minded officials pushed through some modest but significant financial market reforms.

但我們仍有理由心懷希望。近期的政治風波（包括薄熙來事件）迫使中共黨內的保守勢力處於守勢。與此同時，改革派官員推動通過了一些步子不大但具有重要意義的金融市場改革措施。

The government has long recognised that reforming the financial sector is needed to improve the balance and sustainability of growth. Why has it not acted more forcefully before? The present system works well – for some. State-owned banks provide cheap financing for state enterprises, which are key fiefdoms of political patronage. Banks also provide financing to powerful provincial officials through shell corporations that bankroll pet investment projects. This is financed by paying Chinese households low or negative inflation-adjusted returns on their voluminous bank deposits.

中國政府早就認識到，爲了改善經濟增長的平衡性和可持續性，必須改革金融業。爲什麼之前它沒有采取更有力的行動呢？因爲現行體制運行良好（對某些實體來說確實如此）。國有銀行向國有企業提供廉價資金，而這些國企正是受到政界庇護的關鍵部門。銀行還通過空殼公司向手握重權的省級官員提供資金，使他們能爲自己青睞的投資項目籌措資金。但這種融資的代價是，中國家庭部門龐大的銀行存款所得到的回報率在剔除通脹因素後非常之低，甚至爲負數。

All of this needs fixing, but the best of intentions can backfire. In an economy with many policy problems, getting rid of one or two can have unintended consequences. In 2008, asking banks to limit credit growth and avoid new non-performing loans were sensible moves. But banks had a lot of outstanding loans to weak state enterprises – starving them of credit would have turned those loans into non-performing loans in short order. So banks continued lending to state enterprises and shut off lending to the private sector, meeting the government's conditions but thwarting its intentions.

這一切都需要改革來解決，但最好的意圖也會產生反效果。在一個存有諸多政策問題的經濟體中，解決一兩個問題可能會招致意想不到的後果。2008年，中國政府要求銀行抑制信貸增長，避免不良貸款擴大——這是很明智的舉措。但銀行向疲弱國企發放的大量貸款尚未得到償還，停止向它們放貸會使這些貸款立刻變成不良貸款。於是，銀行繼續向國企放貸，並關閉了向私人部門放貸的大門。這樣做雖然滿足了政府對於抑制信貸增長的要求，卻背離了政府的初衷。

Recent moves indicate that the government has learnt its lesson. It increased the flexibility of the exchange rate (in principle) when the renminbi was not under pressure to appreciate, relaxed the cap on interest rates paid on deposits, increased foreign investors' access to capital markets and encouraged certain informal financial companies to become part of the formal banking system. Each of these moves has broader significance.

最近的舉措表明，中國政府汲取了教訓。它在人民幣未面臨升值壓力的情況下（在原則上）提高了匯率的靈活性，放鬆了對存款利率的限制，拓寬了外國投資者進入中國資本市場的渠道，鼓勵某些非正式金融企業成爲正式銀行體系的一部分。這些舉措均有着更爲深遠的意義。

For example, giving informal financial companies the opportunity to join the formal banking system serves multiple ends. It brings them under the ambit of the banking regulator and reduces the risks they pose to financial stability. Moreover, they now provide more overt competition for established banks.

舉例來說，讓非正式金融類企業有機會加入正式銀行體系可謂一舉多得。這既把它們置於銀行業監管部門的監管之下，又降低了它們對金融穩定構成的威脅。而且，這些企業還使現有的銀行面臨更多的公開競爭。

The need for interest rate liberalisation is widely recognised inside and outside of China. Freeing up deposit rates and abandoning the fixed spread between deposit and loan rates would result in better returns for depositors and encourage banks to sharpen their lending practices. The big banks have resisted this fiercely as it would cut into profits. So the government cleverly took a small step when it cut rates recently – freeing up banks to offer deposit rates marginally higher than the base rate, arguing that this would make the rate cut more palatable to depositors.

利率自由化的必要性在中國國內外均得到廣泛認同。放開存款利率和不再設置固定的存貸息差，將爲儲戶帶來更高的回報，並鼓勵銀行提高放貸效率。大型銀行對此抵制強烈，因爲這會損害它們的利潤。因此，中國政府抓住近期降息的時機巧妙地邁出了一小步：它放開了銀行的存款利率，使其上限略高於基準利率，理由是這樣做會使降息更容易獲得儲戶的接受。

A one-shot approach to breaking up big banks or freeing interest rates risks a backlash and concerted opposition that could block changes altogether. Reform-minded officials are taking a more subtle approach – using a megaphone to draw attention to the problems and introducing small but tangible changes.

採取畢其功於一役的方式分拆大型銀行或實現利率自由化會招致強烈反彈和共同抵制，可能徹底堵死改革的道路。改革派官員正在採取更爲精細的方式：一面利用宣傳機器吸引公衆關注存在的種種問題，一面推出步幅不大但看得見摸得着的改革舉措。

One can make a strong case that, with its economy growing more complex and market-oriented, China needs to move beyond this cautious approach. The 12th five-year plan issued last year laid bare the range of problems, including corruption and dismal corporate governance among Chinese enterprises, and deficiencies in the policy making process. Given the severe political constraints China's leaders face, however, modest reforms by stealth are better than no reforms at all.

有人可能會提出一個強有力的論點，即考慮到本國經濟日益複雜、市場化程度越來越高，中國應該採取更爲大膽的方式進行改革。去年發佈的“十二五”計劃列出了一系列問題，如中國企業暴露出的腐敗和公司治理水平低下、以及政策制定過程存在缺陷等。但考慮到中國領導人在政治領域面臨的一些限制，悄悄地實施適度改革總好於根本不改革。

This strategy may slowly turn China in the direction it needs to go. Whether this will be enough to outrun the many demons China faces remains the big question.

這一戰略或將逐步推動中國走上正確的發展道路。但這是否足以幫助中國克服其面臨的諸多困難，仍是一個大大的問號。

The writer is a professor of economics at Cornell University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former head of IMF's China division

本文作者是美國康奈爾大學(Cornell University)經濟學教授和布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)高級研究員、曾任國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)中國部主任