評估中國經濟形勢需做實地考察

Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, picked a good week to visit Hong Kong. Not only is the city preparing for Rugby Sevens weekend — one of the biggest parties in the world sporting calendar. He also came just as a paper from the International Monetary Fund said policymakers needed to factor emerging market developments increasingly into their decisions. China and Hong Kong should expect an upturn in visits.

芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行(Chicago Fed)行長查爾斯•埃文斯(Charles Evans)選了很合適的一週來造訪香港。現在香港正準備迎接週末的七人欖球賽(Rugby Sevens)——全球體育日程上最大的盛會之一。埃文斯抵達香港之際，還正好趕上國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)發佈報告指出，政策制定者越來越有必要在做決策時將新興市場的動態考慮進來。料想來中國內地和香港的訪客應該會越來越多。

“You can do the monetary policy job without travelling and getting the first-hand experience, but I do find it useful,” Mr Evans told the Financial Times this week.

埃文斯本週向英國《金融時報》表示：“你不旅行、不獲得一手經驗，也能制定出貨幣政策，但我發現旅行真的很有用。”

The IMF outlined China’s rising influence clearly enough. Its financial integration with the rest of world was expected to accelerate, the paper said, and its financial influence overseas would probably catch up with its economic prowess.

IMF足夠清晰地概述了中國日益增長的影響力。IMF在報告中指出，預計中國將會加快與全球其他國家的金融一體化，它在海外的金融影響力很可能將趕上其經濟實力。

Market participants might say this is priced in. Since last August’s surprise 1.9 per cent currency devaluation, China has frequently set the global market mood.

市場參與者可能會說，這已經反映在價格當中。自去年8月人民幣意外貶值1.9%以來，中國常常左右全球市場情緒。

It has not yet usurped the US, however, because China is mostly considered a risk factor, not a potential source of positive news. US news and data have the power to raise as well as lower sentiment.

然而，它還取代不了美國，因爲中國主要被視爲一個風險因素、而非利好消息的潛在來源。美國的新聞和數據既能改善市場情緒，也能打擊市場情緒。

Yet unlike passing risks, such as Greece’s many near-collapses, China is becoming a staple input. Asian and European markets take their opening cue not just from closing levels in New York but also from Chinese news flow.

但與希臘多次接近崩盤等暫時性風險不同的是，中國正成爲一個標配的風險輸入源。亞洲和歐洲市場開盤時，不僅從紐約的收盤水平、也從中國的新聞流中獲得指引。

According to the IMF paper, more than a third of the changes in developed market returns can be traced to spill-overs from emerging markets. This holds for both stocks and currencies.

IMF的報告顯示，發達市場回報率的變化中，逾三分之一可追蹤至新興市場的溢出效應。股票和外匯市場的情況均是如此。

Trade linkages explain between 10 and 20 per cent of this EM spillover. Rising market integration is responsible for a further 30 to 40 per cent. Beyond that the IMF said the variables it had studied could not fully explain the growing links. More study on this effect is certainly needed.

這種新興市場溢出效應有10%至20%可以通過貿易聯繫得到解釋。市場一體化程度加深又解釋了30%至40%。IMF表示，就其餘部分而言，它研究的變量無法完全解釋這種日益增長的聯繫。對這種效應的影響做更多研究無疑很有必要。

In the case of China direct links are still at an early stage. Foreigners own less than 2 per cent of its bond market, which is the third-largest in the world, and about the same of its stock market. Beijing is about to open the bond markets to foreigners and MSCI, the index provider, has revived talks on adding mainland shares to its benchmarks. The renminbi, while internationalising rapidly, is still used in just 2 per cent of payments globally.

就中國而言，直接聯繫仍處於早期階段。外國人佔中國債券市場（全球第三大債券市場）的份額不足2%，佔其股票市場的份額也差不多。中國政府即將向外國人開放其債券市場，而指數提供商MSCI明晟已重提將A股納入其基準股指的話題。人民幣儘管迅速國際化，但在全球支付中所佔比例仍然只有2%。

That all points to the fact that January’s worldwide market meltdown, prompted by fears over China, was more about mood than hard metrics. It was fear — and one not, so far, borne out by any marked worsening in Chinese data.

這全都表明一個事實，即今年1月因圍繞中國的擔憂而出現的全球性市場下跌更多的是情緒，而非確鑿數據所致。它是擔憂造成的，而這種擔憂迄今沒有得到中國數據顯著惡化的佐證。

After months of soft readings, manufacturing numbers last week showed a slight pick-up, hitting their highest levels in months. Investors paid the price: the offshore renminbi, an important mechanism for weak-China bets, just finished its best quarter in more than three years.

在經過幾個月的疲弱表現後，上週的製造業數據略有回升，觸及數月最高。投資者付出了代價：離岸人民幣匯率剛剛結束3年多以來表現最佳的季度——離岸人民幣是看跌中國的重要手段。

This week two bank heads spoke up in China’s defence. Credit Suisse’s Tidjane Thiam pointed out that growth of between 6.5 and 7 per cent, as targeted by Beijing, was still far better than anywhere else. HSBC’s Stuart Gulliver called on investors to avoid assuming that the slow reform rate meant looming difficulties.

本週，兩位銀行掌門人發聲爲中國辯護。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)首席執行官提賈尼•蒂亞姆(Tidjane Thiam)指出，6.5%至7%的增速（中國政府設定的目標值）仍遠高於其他任何國家。匯豐(HSBC)行政總裁歐智華(Stuart Gulliver)呼籲投資者不要認爲改革速度緩慢就意味着迫在眉睫的困境。

What he called some observers’ “pessimism” over China suggests that there is one link that needs improving: understanding elsewhere, particularly among western markets, of on-the-ground activity in China. A senior US investment banker, in Hong Kong this week for one of the conferences timed to coincide with the Sevens tournament, attributed this gap to the problems of applying US practices to China.

這表明有一個環節需要改善：其他地區（特別是西方市場）對中國實際情況的理解。一位美國高級投資銀行家將這種理解不足，歸咎於把美國的慣例套用到中國身上。他本週在香港參加會議，會議時間特意安排在七人欖球賽這個時候。

“The data are difficult to sift through — and we love data in the US — particularly the hedge funds,” he said.

他表示：“數據很難說得通，而在美國，我們喜歡數據，對衝基金尤其如此。”

Hong Kong fills with investors, bankers, executives and the odd policymaker for the Sevens. Mr Evans, who does not follow rugby, is leaving before the tournament begins. No one could argue with a straight face that a weekend of partying and sport was the best way to gather information on China. But more visits would be a starting point.

眼下香港聚集着許多打算觀看七人欖球賽的投資者、銀行家、公司高管，還來了一位不打算觀賽的政策制定者。埃文斯不關注橄欖球，他將在比賽開始前離港。沒有人可以一本正經的辯稱，一個週末的聚會和觀賽是收集關於中國的信息的最佳方式。但更多人前來造訪開了一個頭。

China’s impact on global markets is evolving too fast for mere number-crunching to keep up.

中國對全球市場的影響演變得太快，僅僅分析數據是無法跟上形勢的。