中國急需一輪嬰兒潮來避免經濟蕭條

China needs a baby boom--and badly, researchers say.

研究人員說，中國需要一個生育高峯，並且是急需。

'Get married soon and have lots of children.' That's the advice that 49-year-old Huang Wenzheng gave to college students at a recent forum in Beijing about China's population and urban policy.

49歲的黃文政在最近北京舉辦的一箇中國人口和城市政策論壇上向大學生提出的建議是：早結婚，多生孩子。

Mr. Huang, one of the most outspoken one-child policy opponents in China, along with other activists and economists, said at the forum that China needs babies more urgently than ever before, and the country's economic fate depends on whether Beijing can do more to encourage child births.

黃文政是中國反對計劃生育政策呼聲最高的人之一。他與其他活動人士和經濟學家在這個論壇上說，中國比以往任何時候都需要孩子，中國經濟的命運取決於北京能否進一步採取措施鼓勵生育。

A shirking population would be detrimental to China's development, 'leading to a drop of China's national power and even a decline of the civilization,' said Mr. Huang, a co-founder of the website Population and the Future, which promotes the right to have more than one child.

黃文政說，人口規模衰減對中國根本也不是一個好事情，中國的發展會釜底抽薪，導致中國國力下降，甚至整個中華民族的衰敗。他是人口與未來網站的聯合創辦人，這個網站倡導生育權。

China's total population continues to grow, but the nation's working-age population--those between the ages of 16 and 59--has dropped two years in a row, raising concerns about a shrinking labor force and economic growth prospects. The share of the elderly, or those who are more than 65 years old, was 9.7% in 2013, up from 9.4% in 2012, official data showed.

中國的人口總數仍在增長，但勞動年齡人口（16到59歲之間）已經連續兩年下降，這引發了對勞動力萎縮和經濟增長前景的擔憂。官方數據顯示，2013年65歲以上的老年人占人口總數的比例從2012年的9.4%升至9.7%。

A labor shortage in the short run would be followed by diminishing demand, which in the long run will likely hurt China's job market and decrease the number of jobs being created, said Mr. Huang, who received a PhD in biostatistics at John Hopkins University.

黃文政說，勞動力缺乏只是一個短期現象，人減少了以後，社會需求也在減少，長遠下去人口衰減帶來的是今後中國就業問題更加的嚴重。黃文政獲得了約翰•霍普金斯大學(Johns Hopkins University)生物統計學博士學位。

Such a message isn't falling on entirely deaf ears: late last year, Beijing moved to ease its decades-long one-child policy by allowing couples to have two children if one spouse is an only child.

這樣的信息並非完全無人理睬：去年年底，中國政府採取行動放鬆其持續了數十年的計劃生育政策，允許一方爲獨生子女的夫妻生育二胎。

But the policy's impact has been limited. By the end of May, only 271,600 couples had applied for permission to give birth to a second child, with 241,300 couples having been given the permit, Yang Wenzhuang, a director overseeing family planning at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said at a briefing in July.

中國國家衛生和計劃生育委員會計劃生育基層指導司司長楊文莊在7月的一個新聞發佈會上說，但這項政策的影響有限。截至今年5月底，只有271,600對夫妻申請生二胎，有241,300對夫妻已經獲准。

Economists and researchers say such small steps are far from enough.

經濟學家和研究人員說，這類小規模措施遠遠不夠。

'I've been traveling to different parts of the country in recent months to find out exactly what changes are taking place in our wherever I go those who actually qualify [to have a second child] is less than 5%,' said Gu Baochang, a professor at Renmin University. The reason why that figure is so low is in part because many rural residents were already permitted to have a second child. Likewise, China's rules previously allowed individuals who have no siblings to give birth to a second child, so long as they were married to someone who matched those same conditions.

人民大學教授顧寶昌說，這幾個月他走了全國很多地方，就想知道中國社會發生了什麼樣的變化。他還說，他所到的地方符合生二胎條件的人比例不到5%。這個比例之所以這麼低，部分原因在於很多農村居民此前已經獲准生二胎。同樣的，中國此前的規定允許夫妻均爲獨生子女的家庭生二胎。

Faced with a rapidly aging population and declining numbers of the working-age, government officials have strongly hinted that they may need to raise the retirement age.

面對迅速老齡化的人口以及不斷減少的適齡勞動人口，政府官員強烈暗示，他們可能需要提高退休年齡。

The ratio between the number of people who are paying into the country's social insurance pool and those who receive pensions rose to 3.09 in 2012, up from 2.90 in 2003, the latest official data showed.

最新官方數據顯示，2012年，繳納社保的人與領取退休金的人之比上升至3.09:1，高於2003年的2.90:1.

'When you are 60 years old, who would support you?' the silver-haired Mr. Gu said to an audience of about 400 students, researchers and journalists last week.

白髮蒼蒼的顧寶昌上週對約400名學生、研究人員和記者說，當你們到了60歲的時候，誰來養活你們呢？

Results of the most recent census in 2010 showed that China's fertility rates, or the number of births per 1,000 women, was 1.18. Large cities and Beijing and Shanghai were even lower, at around 0.7.

2010年最新人口普查結果顯示，中國的生育率爲1.18。生育率爲每1,000名女性生育孩子的數量。北京和上海等大城市的生育率更低，約爲0.7。

As China's urbanization rate increases, with more farmers moving into the city, the fertility rate will drop further due to higher living costs, said Liang Jianzhang, a professor at Peking University.

北京大學教授樑建章說，隨着越來越多的農民進入城市，中國的城市化率上升，更高的生活成本將令生育率進一步下降。

To make it worse, China is seeing a rising number of 'leftover women,' or middle-aged urban Chinese women who cannot find their Mr. Right--and unlike single women in developed nations, unmarried Chinese woman are not willing to have children, said Mr. Liang, who's also the founder and chairman of , Chinese online travel company.

他說，更糟糕的是，中國出現越來越多的“剩女”，許多中年城市女性無法找到自己的白馬王子，與發達國家的單身女性不同，未婚的中國女人不願意生孩子。樑建章同時也是中國在線旅遊公司攜程旅行網()的創始人兼董事會主席。

'However you look at it, [the outlook of] China's fertility rate seems more pessimistic than a lot of other countries,' he said, adding that in 10 to 20 years, China's population will be greying at a pace even faster than that of a decade ago in Japan, where the elderly currently make up 25% of all residents. An aging population has partly contributed to the 'lost decade' of the Japanese economy, economists have said.

樑建章補充說，但是你看，中國生育率的前景似乎比很多其他國家更加悲觀，在10到20年內，中國人口老齡化速度將比十年前的日本更快，目前日本的老年人占人口總數的25%。經濟學家們曾表示，人口老齡化在一定程度上對日本經濟低迷的十年起到了推波助瀾的作用。

But others at the forum disputed the notion that China should be encouraging a new baby boom.

但也有人在論壇上對中國應鼓勵一個新的“嬰兒潮”的建議提出異議。

'Sounds like we are returning to Chairman Mao's line of thinking...I think we must not make that kind of mistake,' said Chen Zhiwu, a Yale University professor.

耶魯大學教授陳志武表示：聽起來我們正回到毛主席的思路上去...我認爲我們不應該犯這樣的錯誤。

Mr. Huang, however, said that even if the government completely scraps the one-child policy, the country's fertility rate still won't be 'normal,' and will instead continue to stay low.

然而黃文政說，即使政府完全廢除獨生子女政策，生育率仍然是“不正常”的，並將繼續保持低位。

'It would be disastrous for China,' he said. 'No doubt about that.'

他說，毋庸置疑，這對中國來說是一場災難。