美國新總統將要面臨的經濟形勢大綱

In the country of the blind, the one-eyed man rules.

盲人國度，獨眼爲王。

The US economy shows significant flaws.

雖然美國經濟暴露出巨大缺陷，

But it is a king when compared with its peers.

但與其他經濟體相比，美國仍可稱王。

It has recovered from the Great Recession, with unemployment low and real incomes rising.

美國經濟已從大衰退(Great Recession)中復甦，失業率處於較低水平，實際收入不斷增長。

It also possesses abiding supremacy in new technologies.

美國還在新技術領域擁有根深蒂固的優勢。

Nevertheless, the next administration will take over a country with mediocre growth of productivity, high inequality, a growing retreat from work and a declining rate of creation of new businesses and jobs.

然而，新一屆美國政府將接管的是這樣一個國度：生產率增長差強人意，社會不平等程度高，越來越多人放棄求職，新企業創立及就業新增的速度不斷下降。

At least the US fiscal position is not a really urgent threat.

至少美國的財政狀況還並非真正緊迫的威脅。

That is to the good, since nothing much is likely to be done about it.

這是件好事，因爲對於財政問題，反正也不太可能做什麼。

The financial crisis of 2007-09 was a devastating event, economically and politically.

2007-09年金融危機就經濟和政治而言都是一場災難。

But real gross domestic product per head had reached its trough by the second quarter of 2009 and recovered to pre-crisis levels by the final quarter of 2013.

但實際人均國內生產總值(GDP)已在2009年第二季度見底，並於2013年第四季度恢復至危機前水平。

Similarly, the unemployment rate peaked at 10 per cent in October 2009 but is now back to 4.9 per cent.

類似地，2009年10月，失業率升至10%的峯值，但現在已回落至4.9%。

The financial sector is also in far better health than during the crisis.

金融業的健康狀況也已比危機期間好得多。

Too many casual observers take this rapid turnround for granted.

太多漫不經心的觀察人士將這種快速的復甦視爲理所當然。

But the Great Recession could have been another Great Depression.

但此次大衰退本來有可能演變成另一場大蕭條(Great Depression)。

It took bold action by the Federal Reserve, the administration of George W Bush and that of Barack Obama to turn the economy around so quickly.

得益於美聯儲(Fed)、小布什(George W Bush)及巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府採取的果敢行動，美國經濟才如此迅速地恢復了生機。

Everyone has benefited greatly from this success.

所有人都極大地受益於此次成功。

Nevertheless, the crisis has left deep scars.

然而，這場危機還是留下了嚴重的後遺症。

In the second quarter of 2016, real GDP per head was still only 4 per cent above its pre-crisis peak, almost nine years before.

2016年第二季度的實際人均GDP仍只比危機前（將近9年前）的峯值水平高4%。

Labour productivity has grown slowly since the crisis, by historical standards, largely as a result of weakened investment.

以歷史標準衡量，勞動生產率自上次危機發生以來一直增長緩慢——主要是由投資減弱造成。

One study estimates US potential output is 7 per cent below levels suggested by pre-crisis trends.

一項研究估計，美國的潛在產出比危機前的趨勢水平低了7%。

Yet average growth of US labour productivity, albeit slowly subsiding, has exceeded that of other leading high-income economies over the past 15 years.

但儘管出現放緩，過去15年間，美國勞動生產率的平均增速超過了其他主要高收入經濟體。

This is probably due to its dominance of high-tech innovation: the aggregate capitalisation of the five largest US technology companies is now over $2.2tn.

這多半得益於美國在高科技創新領域的主導地位：美國最大的5家科技公司現在的總市值已經超過2.2萬億美元。

Yet, the scars left by the crisis, which include diminished confidence in the probity and competence of the financial, intellectual and policymaking elites, also came on top of older ones.

然而，上次危機留下的後遺症——其中包括對金融界、知識界及政策制定界精英的誠信和能力的日漸不信任——也是緊隨着一些老問題出現的。

Real median household income increased by 5.2 per cent between 2014 and 2015.

2014年至2015年間，美國家庭實際收入中值提高了5.2%.

But it remains below pre-crisis levels.

但仍低於危機前的水平。

Indeed, it is below levels reached in 2000 and has even fallen relative to real GDP per head consistently since the mid 1970s.

實際上，這一中值也低於2000年水平，甚至相對於自上世紀70年代中期以來的實際人均GDP都一直在下降。

This performance helps explain the tide of disillusionment, even despair, revealed so starkly by this grim election (see charts).

這一表現可以解釋普遍的幻滅感，甚至絕望感——在此次氣氛嚴肅的大選中顯露無遺 。

Not surprisingly, inequality has worsened markedly.

意料之中的是，美國的不平等已明顯惡化。

Between 1980 and the most recent period, the share of the top 1 per cent in pre-tax income jumped from 10 per cent to 18 per cent.

從1980年直至最近時期，稅前收入前1%人口所佔收入比例已從10%躍升至18%。

Even after tax, it rose by a third, from 8 to 12 per cent.

即使是稅後，他們所佔收入比例也增加了三分之一，從8%增至12%。

The rise in compensation of chief executives, relative to that of workers, has been huge.

相對於普通員工，首席執行官們的薪酬漲幅一直很高。

The US has the highest inequality of any high-income country and has seen the fastest rise in inequality among the seven leading high-income economies.

在所有高收入國家中，美國的不平等程度最高，而在7個收入最高的經濟體中，美國不平等程度加劇的速度最快。

The divergence among these countries suggests that rising inequality is far more a social choice than an economic imperative.

這些國家之間的差異表明，不平等程度日益加劇更多的是一個社會選擇問題，而非在經濟上不可避免。

Closely related to the rising inequality has been a decline in the share of labour in GDP from 64.6 per cent in 2001 to 60.4 per cent in 2014.

與日益加劇的不平等密切相關的是，勞動力在GDP中所佔份額從2001年的64.6%下降到2014年的60.4%。

Workers have not only suffered from declining shares of the pie.

勞動者遭遇的不僅是分到的蛋糕越來越小。

Just as significant is the steady rise in the proportion of men aged 25 to 54 neither in work nor seeking it from about 3 per cent in the 1950s to 12 per cent now.

同樣顯著的遭遇還有，25歲至54歲男性中沒有工作且已放棄求職的比例穩步上升，從20世紀50年代的3%上升到現在的12%。

Even France had a higher fraction of prime-age men in jobs than the US every year since 2001.

就連法國的壯年男性佔就業人口比例自2001年以來都年年壓過美國。

Since 1990, the US has had the second-largest increase in male non-participation in the labour force of all members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

自1990年起，美國男性未參與勞動的比率的增幅在經合組織(OECD)所有成員國裏排第二。

After 2000, the declining trend in non-participation of prime-age women also halted.

2000年以後，壯年女性未參與勞動的比率不斷下降的趨勢也停止了。

The proportion of US women in this age category in employment is now among the lowest of all the members of the OECD.

美國女性在所有壯年就業人口中所佔比例現在也屬經合組織所有成員中最低之列。

No less disturbing is a decline in economic dynamism.

經濟活力的下降也同樣令人不安。

The rate of creation of new jobs has slowed markedly, as have rates of internal migration.

就業崗位新增速度顯著放緩，國內人口遷移率也是一樣。

The rate of entry of new businesses into the marketplace has also been falling over an extended period, as has the share of ones less than five years old in both the total number of businesses and employment.

新企業進入市場的速度也已持續下降較長一段時期，成立不足5年的企業在所有企業中所佔比例以及在總就業中所佔比例也是一樣。

Meanwhile, business fixed investment has been persistently weak.

與此同時，企業固定投資持續疲軟。

Evidence also suggests a rising variation in returns on capital.

證據還顯示資本回報的差異日益加大。

These are long-term trends, not just post-crisis events.

這些都是長期趨勢，不僅僅是危機後事件。

This loss of dynamism may not only be related to declining productivity growth but also to the shifts in income distribution.

經濟活力喪失可能不止與生產率增長減弱有關，還與收入分配的變化有關。

If competitive pressure is falling, monopolistic and monopsonistic — sole-buyer — positions will either emerge or strengthen.

如果競爭壓力在下降，壟斷和獨買（買方壟斷）的格局要麼會出現、要麼會鞏固。

The collapse of trade unionism and decline in relative minimum wages reinforce the asymmetric power of business and labour in the marketplace.

工會的崩潰，以及相對最低工資的下降加強了企業和勞動力在市場中的力量不對稱。

Intellectual property rights can also be a big barrier to competition.

知識產權也可能成爲阻礙競爭的一大因素。

The rise of new regulatory barriers is disturbing.

新監管壁壘的興起令人不安。

Among the striking changes is the soaring share of workers with an occupational licence at state level.

還有一個顯著變化是擁有州級職業許可證的勞動者所佔比例出現飆升。

These licences must be a big obstacle to easy movement across state borders.

這些許可證肯定極大地阻礙勞動者方便地跨州流動。

For all its strengths, the US economy could do better.

儘管美國經濟擁有種種優勢，它本還可以表現得更好。

In addition to the trends identified above, deteriorating infrastructure, worsening relative educational performance and a terrible tax code are challenges.

除上述趨勢以外，基礎設施的退化，教育相對錶現的惡化，以及糟糕的稅制都構成挑戰。

Halting immigrants and imports would be an act of self-harm.

停止接納移民和進口將是自損之舉。

The US must build on its historic strengths of an open and dynamic economy, together with government provision of infrastructure, research, education, and balanced tax and regulatory policies.

美國必須發揚其一貫的優勢，即一個開放、有活力的經濟，再加上政府提供的基礎設施、研究、教育，以及均衡的稅收和監管政策。

A new administration needs the right diagnosis and co-operation from Congress.

新政府需要正確的判斷以及國會的合作。

Pigs may also fly.

豬或許也可以飛起來。