社評:中國經濟要靠內需拉動

The gloomy mantra about China's investment-heavy growth model has become familiar. Getting less attention are the changes that could start to bring consumption humming to life.
人們動輒就會說，中國的增長模式是靠投資拉動，這種令人沮喪的說法我們已經再熟悉不過了。其實中國已經出現了一些變化，國內消費可能開始增加，只不過人們還沒太注意到這一點罷了。
China's growth rate for the first quarter slowed but wasn't slow. Zhang Xiaoqiang, a senior official at the National Development and Reform Commission, recently hinted that first-quarter gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of about 8.4%.
中國今年第一季度增速雖放緩，但其實也並不慢。中國國家發展和改革委員會高級官員張曉強前不久表示，今年一季度國內生產總值(GDP)年化增長率約爲8.4%。
If that is borne out when the data are published Friday, it would be lower than the 8.9% pace in the final quarter of 2011, and the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009─but not the collapse some had feared.
相關報道調查：中國經濟硬着陸可能性不大
While that should ease concerns in financial markets about China's immediate growth prospects, the numbers on the structure of the economy are cause for concern. Investment as a share of GDP in 2010 came in at 48%. That's too high. South Korea's investment as a share of GDP topped out at 40% in 1991.
觀點：中國經濟盛宴即將曲終人散？
Overinvestment is problematic because it risks misallocation of capital on a grand scale. If it persists for many more years, the result will be trade tensions as surplus production spills into global markets, worsening environmental degradation and bankruptcy for overextended Chinese companies.
博客：中國高腐敗與高增長共存之謎
To foster sustainable growth, China needs to shift to a new model, where investment takes a break and household consumption steps up as the new engine.
博客：中國經濟變革面臨雙重挑戰
Getting there won't be easy. But there are hints that things are moving in the right direction. Higher wages for workers and interest rates for savers are putting more money in households' pockets. A generational shift in thinking means those households might just spend some of that money, instead of saving it.
如果週五發佈的數據證實這一數字，則這將低於2011年第四季度8.9%的增長率，也將創下自2009年第二季度以來的最低增長水平，但這並非是一些人所擔心的經濟崩潰。
A commitment to improve pay and benefits at Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. 0.00%─where hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers make Apple Inc. AAPL +1.50%iPhones and iPads─is a sign of the times.
這應當能緩解金融市場對中國短期增長前景的憂慮，但有關中國經濟結構的數據仍是人們擔憂情緒的根源所在。2010年，投資佔中國GDP的比重達48%，實在是太高了。以韓國爲例，投資佔該國GDP的比重在1991年達到了40%的最高水平。
Following a critical report from the Fair Labor Association published at the end of March, Hon Hai─also known as Foxconn─agreed to increase overtime pay for its workers. The Taiwanese manufacturer also said it would improve migrant workers' access to unemployment insurance─which the Chinese social-security system makes it difficult to access outside a worker's home province.
過度投資是有問題的，因爲這可能使得資本出現大規模配置不當。如果這種情況持續多年，那結果將是，剩餘生產力溢入全球市場將引發緊張的貿易關係，環境惡化狀況將加重，高槓杆化的中國企業將破產。
In the past, the problem of low wages has been compounded by a financial sector that dents income by offering households low returns on their saving.
爲促進可持續增長，中國需要轉向一個新模式，讓投資步伐緩一緩，擴大居民消費並使其成爲推動經濟增長的新引擎。
In 2011, households with funds in a one-year fixed-term deposit received just a 3.5% return─below the rate of inflation. Very low interest rates represent a transfer from households, who do most of China's saving, to businesses, which do most of the borrowing.
這個目標實現起來並不容易。但有跡象顯示，情況正向着正確的方向發展。提高工人工資和上調銀行儲蓄利率讓中國家庭有了更多收入。新一代人觀念的變化也意味着，這些中國居民也許會將所得收入花掉一部分，而不是全部存起來。

Here too, there are signs of a move in the right direction, with new financial products offering China's savers inflation-beating returns.
鴻海精密工業股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.，簡稱：鴻海精密)承諾將提高工人工資和福利，這代表着這個時代的變化。該公司共有幾十萬名中國僱員，蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)的iPhone智能手機和iPad平板電腦都產自這裏。
Two years ago, Ms. Wang, a translator with a legal nonprofit in Beijing, kept all her savings in fixed-term deposits. Now Ms. Wang, who didn't give her first name, has transferred 200,000 yuan (about $31,700) to wealth-management products, leaving just 50,000 yuan sitting in the bank.
在美國公平勞工協會(Fair Labor Association)於3月底發佈一份重要報告後，鴻海精密(亦稱富士康(Foxconn))同意提高員工的加班工資。這家臺灣生產商還說，將擴大外來務工者獲得失業保險的機會。在中國的社會保障制度下，工作者很難在自己戶籍所在地以外的地方獲得失業保險。
'If I just put all my money in the bank, it's not appropriate because the interest rate is very low,' Ms. Wang said. 'The new investment products are offering 4.5% to 5% returns, and it's very convenient. We can do it all over the Internet.'
過去，低工資再加上中國金融業的低息存款，使得中國家庭收入受到雙重衝擊。
Ms. Wang's choice is being copied in many Chinese households. A higher return on their savings means households have more income and more money to spend.
2011年，居民一年期定期存款利率僅爲3.5%，低於通貨膨脹率。極低的存款利率讓中國的儲蓄主體居民吃虧，同時讓中國的貸款主體企業得利。
Rising incomes won't make much difference, though, if China's households don't ease up on their saving.
在這方面，也有種種跡象表明情況正朝着正確的方向發展。新金融產品爲中國儲戶帶來了跑贏通脹率的回報。
Thriftiness is a habit for China's older generation, many of whom grew up in poverty and turbulence. The younger generation might be different. Compared with their parents, China's 20-somethings─many of them only children─have grown up in an atmosphere of stability and affluence.
兩年前，北京一家非營利性法律組織的翻譯王女士(音，她沒有向記者透露名字)將所有儲蓄都放在定期存款中。而現在，王女士用人民幣20萬元(約合3.17萬美元)的存款購買了理財產品，銀行存款中僅留有人民幣5萬元。
That might reshape attitudes toward spending and saving.
王女士說，由於利率很低，因此把所有錢存在銀行並不妥當。新的理財產品提供的收益率在4.5%至5%之間，而且手續便捷，完全可以在網上操作。
'I don't really keep track of how much I spend, I just buy what I want,' said Ms. Mu, a 27-year-old editor for a popular Internet portal.
目前中國很多家庭的選擇都和王女士一樣。家庭儲蓄的回報率越高，意味着家庭收入越高，能夠用於消費的支出也就越多。
In recent months Ms. Mu, who didn't give her first name, has splurged on an iPhone, a Lenovo laptop and Dior cosmetics. On months where she travels for business, overseas shopping with a credit card means she regularly exceeds her monthly salary of 10,000 yuan ($1,600).
然而，如果收入增加的同時居民並不增加消費支出，那麼情況和此前相比不會有太大差別。
The headline figures on China's roaring investment and stagnant consumption are alarming. But they also are a lagging reflection of conditions that shaped spending and saving decisions in years past.
節儉是中國老一輩的傳統，因爲他們中的多數人在貧困和動盪中長大。但年輕一代可能會有所不同。與父輩相比，中國20多歲的年輕人(大都是獨生子女)是在穩定和富裕的環境中長大的。
It is wages, interest rates and attitudes today that dictate the outlook. In a younger generation's preference for consumption over saving, rising incomes, and a financial sector paying higher returns to household savers, there are signs that China's economy is starting to find a new balance.
這可能會改變這一代人對消費和儲蓄的態度。
TOM ORLIK
現年27歲，在一家主流門戶網站擔任編輯的穆小姐(音)說，我基本上不會記錄自己的消費習慣，通常都是想要什麼就買什麼。
沒有向記者透露名字的穆小姐近幾個月來陸續買了一部iPhone，一臺聯想(Lenovo)筆記本電腦和多款迪奧(Dior)化妝品。在那些需要出差的月份，她的信用卡海外消費支出通常要超過她人民幣1萬元(約合1,600美元)的月薪。