莫迪的大膽廢鈔實驗

On November 8 2016, Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, announced that the Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes (worth about $7.50 and $15 respectively) would be demonetised with immediate effect. This act cancelled 86 per cent of the value of cash in circulation. Moreover, the cancelled notes had to be deposited in banks by December 30 with restrictions on withdrawals.

2016年11月8日，印度總理納倫德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)宣佈，將立即廢除面額爲500盧比和1000盧比的紙幣（分別約合7.5美元和15美元）。此舉導致流通中現金減少了86%。此外，被廢紙幣必須在12月30日之前存入銀行，並且取款受到限制。

In its boldness, this move by the democratically elected leader of so vast a country makes everything that US President Donald Trump has done so far look trivial. Should one regard it as a decisive action in India’s war against tax evasion, the black economy and pervasive corruption? Or is it a damagingly arbitrary act by an illiberal democrat? Today, it seems a bit of both. In the long run, it depends on what happens next.

如此龐大國家的民選領袖此舉之大膽，讓美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)迄今所做的一切顯得微不足道。我們應把此舉視爲印度打擊逃稅、黑色經濟和猖獗腐敗的鬥爭中的一次果斷行動嗎？還是應把它視爲一位偏執的民主人士非常獨斷的做法？現在看來，兩者都有點像。從長期來看，結論要取決於未來的事態發展。

For a politically and economically stable country suddenly to impose so unexpected and radical demonetisation is unprecedented. Why would any elected government inflict such a shock, particularly since India’s economy is so dependent on transactions in cash? As a lower-middle-income country, India still contains a huge number of people who are outside the formal financial system. Moreover, India is also relatively cash-dependent even for such a country: one estimate is that cash still accounts for 78 per cent of consumer payments.

一個政治和經濟穩定的國家，突然採取如此意外、激進的廢鈔之舉，是前所未有的。一個民選政府爲何要造成如此的衝擊——特別是考慮到印度的經濟如此依賴現金交易？作爲一箇中低收入國家，印度仍有巨量人口處於正規金融體系之外。此外，即使在印度這樣一個國家，其對現金的依賴程度也相對較高——據估算，目前現金支付仍佔總體消費支付量的78%。