不要過早否定莫迪改革

The press has not been kind to the economic reforms of Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister. The Economist ran a cover story recently lamenting a missed opportunity, while the Financial Times has reported on the flaws in his big policy pushes, such as demonetisation and the new national sales tax.

媒體對於印度總理納倫德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)的經濟改革不太留情面。《經濟學人》(The Economist)最近發表一篇封面文章，對他錯失良機表示惋惜，而英國《金融時報》(Financial Times)報道了他推行的重大政策（比如廢鈔令和新的全國消費稅）的缺陷。

Yet, we may be writing off Mr Modi too soon. His policies are struggling to achieve their intended aims. But they nonetheless hold the key to unlocking a crucial driver for change. A mostly unintended consequence of his two landmark policies may yet prove to be their saving grace.

不過，我們或許太早看衰莫迪了。他的政策似乎難以實現原定目標。但它們仍是釋放改革重要驅動力的關鍵。他的兩項里程碑式政策的一個基本上未曾預料到的後果，仍可能被證明是這些政策的唯一可取之處。

Living in India, you will invariably be struck by a puzzle: the same Indians who demand quality and efficiency from private companies seem almost resigned to lethargic incompetence from government. Why? Taxes hold the key. We are wired to care more about things we pay than things we get for free. Behavioural economists call this tendency the endowment effect: paying for something represents a loss of personal funds, so we care more about such items than identical things we can get for free.

在印度生活，你難免會被一個謎題困擾：那些要求私營企業拿出品質和效率的印度人，卻似乎屈從於政府部門死氣沉沉的不勝任。爲什麼呢？稅收是關鍵。相比我們免費得到的東西，我們本能地更關心自己花錢得到的東西。行爲經濟學家把這種傾向稱爲稟賦效應(endowment effect)：花錢買下某件東西，代表着我們花掉了個人資金，因此我們更關心這些物件，而不是我們可以免費得到的同類物件。

Most Indians have not been paying for their government. Last year’s income tax data shows only about 2 per cent of Indians pay income taxes. In fact, direct taxes made up less than 6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2015/16. One explanation for why Indians are demanding so little from their government is that they do not pay for it.

大多數印度人沒有爲政府花錢。去年的所得稅數據顯示，僅有約2%的印度人繳納了所得稅。事實上，2015/16財年，直接稅佔印度國內生產總值(GDP)的比重不到6%。對於印度人對其政府要求如此微小的一個解釋是，他們不爲政府的職能買單。

If this is true, demonetisation and the new sales tax mark a watershed. The cash ban led to millions of panicked Indians waiting in line for hours to put their money into bank accounts before it became worthless. More than 20m new bank accounts were opened in the five months after the move.

如果這種說法是正確的，那麼廢鈔令和新的消費稅標誌着一個分水嶺。廢鈔令使得數以百萬計的驚慌失措的印度人在鈔票變成廢紙前排隊數小時把錢存入銀行賬戶。在頒佈廢鈔令之後的5個月裏，新開立的銀行賬戶超過2000萬個。

Demonetisation also forced Indians to adopt digital payment technologies. Fintech start-ups, such as PayTM, formalised large parts of the nation’s informal sector by making digital payments accessible to everyone — from multiplex operators to roadside vendors. All of this represents an unprecedented expansion of the Indian tax base. The government claims 9.1m new taxpayers were added as a result of demonetisation.

廢鈔令還迫使印度人採用數字支付技術。PayTM等金融科技初創企業通過讓每個人都可以使用數字支付——從多廳影院經營商到路邊攤販——讓該國不正規行業的很大部分走上正規道路。這一切代表着印度徵稅基礎出現空前擴張。政府聲稱，廢鈔令帶來了910萬新的納稅人。

While the new national sales tax also failed to live up to its potential — it still has six arbitrary rates and onerous reporting rules — it, too, may expand the tax base. Many companies are registering for the first time, and start-ups and small businesses have been given special incentives to register. Once again, many companies will move from the untaxed informal economy into the government’s tax net.

儘管新的全國銷售稅也未能充分發揮潛力（它仍有6個任意稅率和繁瑣的報稅制度），但它也有望擴大稅基。很多企業正在首次登記，政府還推出了特殊激勵計劃來鼓勵初創企業和小企業登記。同樣，很多企業將從不納稅的非正規經濟進入政府的稅網。

As more Indians feel the pinch of direct taxes, they may also start demanding better services from their government. Many Indians have been willing to put up with an inefficient and unaccountable government because they did not feel the sense of entitlement that comes with paying for it. That is about to change.

隨着更多印度人感受到直接稅的負擔，他們可能也會開始要求政府提供更好的服務。很多印度人願意忍受效率低下、且不受問責的政府服務，是因爲他們沒有權利意識；這種意識伴隨買單而來。這一點即將改變。

So, the cash ban and new sales tax may yield an unexpected democratic dividend. They may serve as a wake-up call for millions of Indians to want better services from their government. If these policies do unleash greater demands for accountability, Indian democracy will be better for it.

因此，廢鈔令和新銷售稅可能帶來意想不到的民主紅利。它們可能喚醒數以百萬計的印度人的主人翁精神，推動他們要求政府提供更好的服務。如果這些政策真的釋放出更大的問責要求，那對於印度的民主體制將是一件好事。