特朗普限制鋼鐵進口將傷及盟友

Since taking office, President Donald Trump has been growling loudly about taking on trade miscreants whose companies’ exports cheat their way into the US market. Soon, he will have to decide how hard to bite.

自從上任以來，美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)一直叫嚷着要對付那些以欺詐手段將商品出口到美國市場的貿易無賴國家。不久之後，特朗普將需決定要展開多嚴厲的打擊。

Mr Trump’s administration has been threatening for some time to invoke a US law to protect national security to block imports of steel, saying that dependence on imported raw materials threatens US stability. Few doubt that China, his administration’s trade bugbear, is the main target. The decision has been delayed: unprecedented warnings from fellow Nato members that such restrictions would threaten their own security perhaps have given the White House some pause.

一段時間以來，特朗普政府一直威脅要動用一項美國法律來保護國家安全，阻止鋼鐵進口。特朗普政府表示，對進口原材料的依賴威脅到了美國穩定。沒有多少人懷疑，在貿易方面最叫特朗普政府頭痛的中國正是其主要目標。眼下，特朗普政府已推遲做出決定：北約(Nato)其他成員國發出了前所未有的警告，稱這類限制措施將威脅它們自己的安全，也許是這番警告讓白宮有些猶豫了。

If the administration cares about preserving open trade and good relations with its allies, it should abandon its plans altogether. Wholesale restrictions on imports of raw materials with a spurious national security justification are economically nonsensical and politically ruinous.

如果特朗普政府重視維持與盟國之間的開放貿易和良好關係，那就應該徹底放棄其計劃。假借國家安全的名義對原材料進口加以全面限制，在經濟上是荒謬的，在政治上則具有毀滅性。

Standard trade defence instruments like antidumping and countervailing duties, employed against imports deemed unfairly priced or state-subsidised, rarely do more than slow the pace of decline for affected industries. They also create distortions elsewhere, especially for domestic companies that use imported inputs. But they are a settled and legitimate part of the global trading system, their overuse to some extent curtailed by the rules of the World Trade Organization.

常規的貿易防禦工具，比如針對被認爲定價不公平或得到國家補貼的進口商品實施的反傾銷與反補貼關稅，多數情況下不過是延緩了受影響行業的衰落速度。它們還在其他方面製造了扭曲，尤其是對於使用進口材料的國內企業來說。但是，它們是世界貿易體系中的一個固定的、合法的部分，它們的濫用在一定程度上受到世貿組織(WTO)規則的制約。

What Mr Trump is contemplating is much more alarming. Although a national security carve-out was written into the WTO’s founding treaty in 1947, it has very rarely been used. There is a good reason for that. Governments have generally recognised that invoking national security to justify trade restrictions is something of a nuclear option. Because the definition is so vague, and because it is politically explosive to accuse another country of scaremongering about its own safety, such a move is more likely to lead to retaliation than conciliation.

特朗普正在盤算的措施就可怕多了。儘管1947年WTO創始條約裏寫入了一項國家安全例外規定，但該規定很少被用到。這是有充分理由的。各國政府普遍認識到，以維護國家安全之名爲實施貿易限制找理由，有些像是一個核選項。因爲國家安全的概念是模糊的，也因爲譴責另一個國家在其自身安全上危言聳聽從政治上來說具有爆炸性，這樣的舉動更有可能引發報復而非調解。

In reality it is absurd for the US to claim that its defence or infrastructural capabilities are threatened by cheap Chinese steel. There is no global shortage of the commodities, and if the US government needs to secure supply of specialist materials, it can already use its public procurement rules to favour domestic companies. In any case, US antidumping measures imposed in recent years on grounds of unfair competition have already slowed the flow of Chinese steel into the US. The main victims of greater restrictions are likely to be European and Japanese companies.

在現實中，如果美國聲稱其防務或基礎設施能力受到廉價中國鋼鐵的威脅，那就太荒謬了。目前這種大宗商品並不存在全球短缺局面，而且如果美國政府需要確保特種材料的供應，那麼它可以利用其公共採購規則來偏袒國內公司。無論如何，近些年美國以不公平競爭爲由實施的反傾銷措施，已經阻止了中國鋼鐵進入美國的速度。如果美國加大限制，主要受害者可能是歐洲和日本的公司。

The move also threatens to harm the whole trading system. The task of judging the claim about national security may well fall to the WTO, assuming another country takes the US to the organisation’s dispute settlement body. This would give the institution an extraordinary dilemma.

此舉也可能會傷害全球貿易體系。假如有另一個國家向世貿組織的爭端解決機構投訴美國的話，評判國家安全之說是否成立的任務很可能落在世貿組織身上。這將使該機構面臨一個非同尋常的難題。

Either a WTO judicial panel rules that the exemption does not contravene its rules, which will open the floodgates to tit-for-tat measures, or it can judge the measures illegal and risk a major rupture with Washington. Mr Trump’s administration is already staffed with sceptics of the WTO. This would give them the opportunity to declare the organisation illegitimate and simply ignore its laws.

WTO的司法專家小組要麼裁定豁免不違反WTO規則——這將爲針鋒相對的報復措施打開閘門——要麼裁定這些措施不合法，因此可能與美國嚴重失和。特朗普政府裏有一些幕僚本來就對WTO持懷疑態度。這將讓他們有機會宣佈WTO不合法、乾脆忽略其規則。

With one action, Mr Trump threatens to harm the US economy, start an international trade war, alienate America’s allies and undermine the rules-based system that has governed global trade for 70 years. Even by his standards, this would be a mindlessly destructive act. The administration should reverse course forthwith.

只要採取一個動作，特朗普就可能傷害美國經濟、打響一場國際貿易戰，疏遠美國的盟國，並破壞已有70年曆史的基於規則的全球貿易體系。即便以他的標準衡量，這也將是一個愚蠢、毀滅性的舉動。特朗普政府應當立即改變立場。