2月份中國製造業PMI降幅爲六年來最大

China’s official gauge of manufacturing activity for February suffered its largest drop since 2011, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown that left it near the zero-growth level.

2月份，中國官方衡量制造業活動的指數出現2011年以來最大幅度的下降，製造業活動的放緩幅度之大出乎人們的意料，其擴張近乎爲零。

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics fell to 50.3, down a point from January and the largest fall in more than six years. The fall marked the gauge’s nearest brush with the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since August 2016.

中國國家統計局公佈的製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)降至50.3%，比1月份低了1個百分點，降幅爲6年多來最大。此次下降是該指數自2016年8月以來最接近50%枯榮線的一次。

A median forecast from economists polled by Reuters had predicted only a fractional slowdown: none of the 28 forecasts for February had pencilled in a reading below 51 for the gauge, which is based on a survey of larger and predominantly state-run companies.

路透社(Reuters)調查的經濟學家給出的預測中值是，該指數只會小幅下降。在對2月份製造業PMI的28個預測當中，沒有一個認爲該指數會低於51%。該指數是基於對大中型且主要爲國有的企業的調查得出的。

China’s statistics bureau on Wednesday attributed the slowdown to the lunar new year holiday, when migrant workers return to their home villages and output typically dips. In 2017 the holiday stretched from the end of January through early February, while this year’s holiday fell entirely in February, making for an unfavourable comparison.

週三，中國國家統計局將此次下降歸因於春節假期，其間外出務工人員返鄉、產出一般都會下降。2017年的春節假期是從1月底到2月初，而今年的假期完全落在2月份，不利於比較。

However, the downward move was outsized for the usually incremental series, making it the sharpest fall since a 1.4 point drop in late 2011 that pushed the gauge into contractionary territory.

但對近來一般都在逐步上升的該指數來說，此次下降的幅度實在太大，降幅是自2011年底以來最大的。2011年底時該指數下降了1.4個百分點，降入榮枯線下方。

“The lower PMI readings for February may be partly due to Chinese new year, since seasonal adjustments may not fully iron out the impact in year-to-year shifts in the timing of the holiday,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. “But even if we account for such volatility by averaging across the first two months of the year, the data still point to a clear slowdown in early 2018.”

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級中國經濟學家朱利安?埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示：“春節可能是2月份PMI讀數走低的部分原因，因爲季節性調整可能無法完全熨平春節假期時間點的年度變化帶來的影響。但是，即使我們通過求今年頭兩個月的均值來計入這種波動，數據仍顯示出2018年開年出現明顯放緩。”

Betty Wang, senior China economist for ANZ, suggested authorities’ crackdown on heavy polluters “also played an important role in dampening the headline numbers on top of the holiday effect”. But she added that while the drive’s impact on manufacturing activity would probably last for another couple of months, it was unlikely to have an impact on policy direction.

澳新銀行(ANZ)高級中國經濟學家王蕊(Betty Wang)表示，除了假期的影響，有關部門對嚴重污染企業的整頓也對推低PMI起到了重要作用。但她同時表示，雖然整頓舉措對製造業活動的影響可能還會再持續幾個月，但它不可能對政策方向產生影響。