俄羅斯外交家大業大 被指工作一團糟

It seems only yesterday that President Vladimir Putin seized the world’s attention with his proposal to put Syria’s chemical weapons under international control. To many, the fancy footwork had a clear message: Russia was back in the diplomatic big league at last.

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)因爲提議讓敘利亞的化學武器置於國際控制之下而引起全球關注，似乎只是昨天才發生的事。對於很多人來說，這個花哨的動作釋放了一個明顯的信號：俄羅斯終於迴歸了外交大國地位。

We can see now what all the headlines briefly obscured. Since Mr Putin regained the presidency last year, his foreign policy has foundered. Russia has not faced such a serious need to rethink its role in the world for more than a quarter century.

現在我們可以看到那些頭條新聞都短暫遮蓋了什麼。自從去年普京重新當選總統以來，他的外交政策一直沒有起色。逾四分之一世紀以來，俄羅斯沒有像現在這樣迫切需要反思其在世界上的角色。

Start with Europe. For the past decade, Moscow avoided conflict in relations with the EU by staying on good terms with Germany. No more. Whether the issue is energy pricing or gay rights, Berlin is now one of Mr Putin’s foremost critics. Russian trade tactics – such as a recent threat to ban Dutch tulips as unsafe – make enemies across the continent.

從歐洲說起。過去十年裏，俄羅斯通過與德國保持良好關係，避免了與歐盟的衝突。但局面已不再是這樣。無論是能源定價還是同性戀權利問題，如今德國都是普京最嚴厲的批評者之一。俄羅斯的貿易策略（比如最近以不安全爲由威脅禁止進口荷蘭鬱金香）在歐洲大陸普遍樹敵。

Belligerence has antagonised former Soviet neighbours, too. To thwart Ukraine’s and Moldova’s interest in closer ties with the EU, Moscow has warned that it may block their goods from entering Russia. In September it started a similar quarrel with Belarus; last month, with Lithuania. Mr Putin, it seems, will pick a fight with anyone.

好鬥姿態也得罪了與俄羅斯相鄰的前蘇聯加盟共和國。爲了挫敗烏克蘭和摩爾多瓦強化與歐盟的聯繫，莫斯科警告，可能會禁止他們的商品進入俄羅斯。9月份，莫斯科與白俄羅斯發生了類似的爭端，10月份則是與立陶宛。普京似乎要與所有人打一架。

Russia’s influence in the Middle East is also declining. Almost three years into the Arab spring, it is on worse terms with nearly all the region’s states. Seen from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Jordan, Israel and Egypt, Moscow’s support for Iran promotes instability. And Russian backing for Syria’s regime evokes genuine anger.

俄羅斯在中東的影響力也在下降。“阿拉伯之春”爆發近三年來，俄羅斯與該地區幾乎所有國家關係惡化。在土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、海灣國家、約旦、以色列和埃及看來，俄羅斯對伊朗的支持加劇了地區不穩定。同時，俄羅斯對敘利亞政權的支持引起了真正的憤怒。

Relations with the US show the same pattern. President Barack Obama cancelled his Labor day summit with Mr Putin because it promised no results. Yes, Russia’s granting of asylum to Edward Snowden, the National Security Agency contractor turned whistleblower, annoyed the US. But the summit was scratched because there was so little to justify it.

與美國的關係也展現出同樣的格局。巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)取消了北美勞動節那天與普京的會晤，因爲不會有什麼結果。沒錯，俄羅斯爲美國國家安全局(NSA)前合同工、泄密者愛德華?斯諾登(Edward Snowden)提供庇護讓美國惱怒。但此次峯會被取消是因爲幾乎沒什麼事可談。

Some experts point out that Mr Putin has at least improved ties with China. This achievement is far less significant than it should be, however. Imagine how the US would feel in the same position. When you have good relations only with China, you have nowhere else to turn. Russians are as uneasy about China’s rise as Americans – maybe more so. But they are facing it alone.

一些專家指出，普京至少改善了與中國的關係，但這一成就的意義遠遠小於其應該達到的水平。想象一下，美國在同樣的處境會有什麼樣的感受？當一個國家只與中國交好時，該國就難以找到別的朋友。對於中國的崛起，俄羅斯人與美國人同樣感到不安，也許程度更深。但他們在單獨面對這個大趨勢。

Mr Putin may reckon others will eventually yield to his pressure. But his strategy is clearly not working. The response of most governments is outrage and resistance. Many think they can stand up to Moscow because its leverage is declining. Upheaval in global energy markets – especially the shale gas revolution – is one reason. The dramatic drop in Russian economic growth this year further saps Russian influence.

普京可能在盤算，其他人最終將向他的壓力屈服。但顯然他的戰略並不奏效。多數國家政府的反應是憤怒和抵制。很多國家認爲他們可以站起來對莫斯科說不，因爲俄羅斯的勢力正在減弱。全球能源市場的劇變（特別是頁岩氣革命）是一個原因。今年俄羅斯經濟增長急劇放緩，進一步削弱了俄羅斯的影響力。

And although it threatens a trade war, Moscow ignores the fact that many of its neighbours have already redirected their exports to the EU. Russia’s diplomatic tools are weaker in other areas, too. For years, Moscow found a middle route in the stand-off between the US and Iran. Now, with Washington and Tehran in wary contact, Russia’s influence with both will decline.

儘管俄羅斯威脅要打一場貿易戰，但它忽視了一個事實：它的很多鄰國已經將出口轉向歐盟。俄羅斯在其他領域的外交工具也有所弱化。多年來，俄羅斯在美國和伊朗之間的對峙中找到一條中間路線。現在，隨着華盛頓和德黑蘭在謹慎接觸，俄羅斯對二者的影響力都將下降。

A record this poor ought to be a problem for Mr Putin. Yet it is rarely criticised. The public seems to like his bristly nationalism. The president has mounted an intense domestic propaganda campaign to portray his Syria moves as a huge success. Disputing this claim – much less suggesting that the rest of his policy is going nowhere – only invites retribution.

如此糟糕的表現，對於普京來說應該是個問題。但這種表現很少受到批評。公衆似乎喜歡他這種生硬的民族主義。普京發起了一場強勢的國內宣傳活動，將他在敘利亞化學武器問題上採取的主動渲染爲一個巨大成功。質疑這種說法（更別提認爲他的其他政策一籌莫展了）只會招致懲處。

Even many of Mr Putin’s critics seem to think that attacking his international record is not the best way to challenge him. Better to focus on economic, political or legal reform – issues on which he may be more vulnerable. When Russia starts to change, I have been told, foreign policy will take care of itself.

就連普京的很多批評者似乎也認爲，攻擊他的外交作爲並不是挑戰他的最佳方式。最好聚焦於經濟、政治或者立法改革等問題，因爲他在這些方面可能更加脆弱。有人告訴我，當俄羅斯開始改變的時候，外交政策會自然而然地出現起色。

Right or wrong, these answers testify to the timidity of Russia’s foreign policy establishment, its intellectual and business elite and its political opposition. Yet it is hard to believe the nation will long be satisfied with the path he has put it on. Current policy produces too little benefit for anyone. A more fundamental course correction – no easy undertaking in any country – is inevitable.

不管是對是錯，這樣的答案證明俄羅斯外交政策體制、知識分子和商界精英以及政治反對派的怯懦。然而，我們很難想象，這個國家會長期滿足於普京所選擇的道路。當前政策幾乎沒有給任何人帶來明顯利好。一種更爲根本的道路糾正是不可避免的。對於任何國家來說，這都不是一項輕而易舉的事業。

Can the rest of us do anything to hasten a Russian reassessment?

那麼外界能否爲加速俄羅斯的重新評估做點貢獻呢？

Anti-Putin crusading will not help much; to many Russians, it simply confirms he is doing the right thing. But conciliation is not the right response either; it too suggests he is getting results. What Russian policy makers and experts alike should hear from Europe and the US – a message delivered more in sorrow than in anger – is that their foreign policy has gone way off track. Until it rights itself, Russia will have less and less global influence.

反對普京的運動不會有多大幫助。對於很多俄羅斯人來說，這隻能證明他做對了。但順從也不是正確的迴應，因爲這將表明他有所作爲。歐洲和美國應該以遺憾（而非憤怒）的語氣告訴俄羅斯政策制定者和專家，他們的外交政策嚴重脫軌。只要俄羅斯不自我糾正，其全球影響力就會越來越小。

The old remark about Britain in the 1960s – that it had lost an empire but not yet found a role – captures Moscow’s predicament exactly. More than 20 years after the Soviet collapse, Russians have to think this problem through for themselves. Mr Putin, unfortunately, keeps putting the answer out of reach.

對上世紀60年代英國的描述（它已失去一個帝國，但還沒有找到新的角色）非常適合現在的俄羅斯。蘇聯解體20多年後，俄羅斯人必須自己想清楚這個問題。不幸的是，普京在不斷地推開答案。