時報首輪預測 希拉里有76%機率勝選

For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States.

至少目前看，希拉里·克林頓有76%的機率打敗唐納德·特朗普，成爲美國新一任總統。

A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.

但特朗普依然相當可能獲勝：克林頓失利的可能性與一名NBA球員罰球不進的機率相當。

This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and national polls of the race conducted since mid-April.

這樣的大選勝負機率是《紐約時報》“結語”專欄(The Upshot)的大選預測模型做出的第一輪預測，是基於各個州的投票歷史，以及自4月中以來就競選進行的約300項州和全國性民意調查得出。

Our model suggests Mrs. Clinton is a strong favorite in 15 states, enough to give her 186 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the White House. Add to this eight states that polls Currently show are leaning Democratic — including Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and Mrs. Clinton would have 275 electoral votes and the presidency.

我們的模型顯示，克林頓在15個州獲得了着強有力的支持，足以讓她拿到贏得大選所需的270張選舉人票中的186張。再加上民意調查目前顯示有另外八個州傾向於民主黨——包括明尼蘇達、密歇根和賓夕法尼亞——預計克林頓將獲得275張選舉人票，由此贏得總統職位。

But, with 16 weeks remaining in the campaign, a lot can change. Using the same model, we would have said that Bill Clinton had less than a 20 percent chance to win the presidency with roughly four months to go in 1992. It was only after Ross Perot left the race and the Democrats rallied around Mr. Clinton after the Democratic convention that his polls improved. And they improved sharply. One month later, he was an 84 percent favorite.

然而，考慮到距離最後的投票時間還有16周，很多情況有可能發生改變。使用同一個模型，我們本會預測，在距離1992年大選還有大約4個月時，比爾·克林頓贏得競選的機率只有不到20%。只是在羅斯·佩羅(Ross Perot)退出競選，民主黨人在該黨全國大會之後團結在克林頓周圍之時，他的民意調查結果纔有所改善。而且是急劇提升。一個月後，他的獲勝機率達到了84%。

This kind of polling volatility should be expected, particularly with party conventions at hand. It is one reason that Mrs. Clinton’s probability of victory is not higher. Current polling averages suggest a four-point victory in the national popular vote for Mrs. Clinton, if nothing changes. But we expect changes between now and Election Day.

應該對這種民意調查的劇烈變化做好心理準備，尤其是考慮到兩黨的全國大會就在眼前。正因如此，克林頓的獲勝機率沒有更高一些。如果情況不發生任何改變，目前的民意調查顯示克林頓在全國普選中有4個點的贏面。但我們料想從現在到大選日會有一些改變發生。

The Upshot is not the only news organization trying to forecast election results. We believe each model provides useful glimpses of possible futures, so we are compiling forecasts from a variety of them into one easy-to-digest table.

“結語”專欄不是唯一一個試圖預測大選結果的新聞機構。我們相信每種模型都可以提供一些有關未來可能性的有用信息，所以我們在將各種預測信息彙總，編輯成一個易於理解的表格。

Viewed side by side, the differences among the models become clearer. Arizona, for example, is rated as a tossup by FiveThirtyEight, while our model has not yet seen enough polling evidence to revise its assessment of Arizona’s recent history as a Republican-leaning state. Similarly, while the betting markets rate New Mexico as almost a sure thing in the Democratic column, our model is not as certain, giving Mr. Trump a 21 percent chance to upset Mrs. Clinton there.

放在一起看，不同模型的區別變得更加一目瞭然。比如，亞利桑那州被博客網站FiveThirtyEight列爲沒有明確傾向的州，而我們的模型還沒看到太多的民意調查證據，不足以修改亞利桑那在最近這些年中作爲傾向共和黨的州的判斷。同樣地，儘管博彩市場將新墨西哥州列爲幾乎可以肯定會支持民主黨的州，我們的模型卻沒有如此確定，而是認爲特朗普在該州有21%的機率擊敗克林頓。