希拉里獲勝的關鍵是女性大綱

There are few worse countries to be a woman than Saudi Arabia. Yet the kingdom’s recent adoption of four weeks paid leave means Saudi women now have better maternity benefits than their US counterparts.

對於女性而言，幾乎沒有比沙特阿拉伯更糟糕的國家了。然而，沙特阿拉伯最近實行的四周帶薪產假政策意味着，沙特阿拉伯女性現在的產假福利高於美國。

American women’s surprisingly weak work benefits are now belatedly coming into the spotlight. Hillary Clinton’s White House bid took a long time to get off the ground. But if she can stir the female vote, as her campaign aims to do, the White House is hers to lose. Women vote in higher numbers than men. They also hold the key to America’s economic future.

美國女性的工作福利低得驚人，這點現在纔開始引起人們的關注。希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)也經歷了很長時間才宣佈競選總統。但如果她能激發女性選民的投票，一如她的競選活動所計劃的，那麼她入主白宮將勝算很大。在美國，女性投票率高於男性。她們也是美國經濟未來的關鍵。

Mrs Clinton virtually ignored her gender in her 2008 campaign. The prospect of electing America’s first black president overshadowed that other big glass ceiling. Because of her familiarity, it is easy to underestimate her potential to excite women in 2016. In the US, black men received the vote more than half a century before women. Black turnout for Barack Obama was a strong factor in his 2008 landslide. Women could do the same for Mrs Clinton. The gap in turnout is already wide (63.7 per cent of US women voted in 2012, versus 59.8 per cent of men). If Mrs Clinton could extend that by a couple of points, her electoral maths would be decisive.

在2008年總統大選中，希拉里幾乎忽略了她的性別。選出美國首位黑人總統的前景，讓人忽視了女性同樣面對着巨大的“玻璃天花板”。由於她被人熟知，人們很容易低估她在2016年激發女性熱情的潛力。在美國，黑人男性獲得選舉權的時間要比女性早半個多世紀。對於巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)而言，黑人選民是他在2008年以絕對優勢入主白宮的一個有力因素。女性也可能會將希拉里送入白宮。男女投票人數差距已經拉大（2012年美國女性投票率爲63.7%，男性爲59.8%）。如果希拉里能夠把差距再提高几個百分點，那麼她將穩操勝券。

The women’s vote is Mrs Clinton’s potential gold mine. But it is also her pitfall. Any sense that she is pandering to one slice of the electorate — even if it makes up more than half of it — could backfire. Many women (and men) revile Mrs Clinton as a manipulative figure who owes her career to her husband. Women lean more Democratic than Republican, but most do not vote on a candidate’s gender. Moreover, at 67, Mrs Clinton suffers from an age gap. In 2008, Mr Obama won more young women’s votes in the Democratic primaries than Mrs Clinton, although she received marginally more of the female vote overall. She cannot expect to shift the gender gap simply by declaring that her election would make history. She will need to incite women’s hopes without alienating men. As it happens,a majority of both belong to America’s squeezed middle class.

女性選民的選票是希拉里的潛在金礦。但這也是她的陷阱。如果她讓人有任何她在迎合某一部分選民的感覺，即使這部分人構成總選民半數以上，都可能會產生反作用。很多女性（以及男性）斥責希拉里是一個靠丈夫走上政治生涯、善於玩手腕的人。比起共和黨，女性更傾向於民主黨，但大多數女性不會根據候選人的性別投票。此外，67歲的希拉里在年齡差距上也要吃虧。2008年，奧巴馬在民主黨初選中獲得的年輕女性的選票比希拉里更多，儘管後者在女性總體投票中略佔優勢。她不能指望僅僅通過宣稱自己的勝選將創造歷史，來改變性別差距。她必須既激起女性的希望，又不疏遠男性選民。湊巧的是，兩者中的大多數都屬於美國受到擠壓的中產階級。

There was a time when promising to revive US manufacturing would have done the trick. But most voters sense that “reshoring” is a chimera, at least in terms of jobs. Besides, Mrs Clinton tried that line in 2008 and lost — and most of the blue collar jobs that had vanished were male. Mrs Clinton’s challenge in today’s post-meltdown economy is very different. Women bear the brunt of the trend towards part-time work in casualised industries. They also have a far rawer deal than in most other advanced economies. Alone among wealthy democracies, American women have no right to paid maternity leave, no federal support for childcare facilities and very few protections if they get pregnant. Under a bill passed in Bill Clinton’s first year as president, Americans are entitled to 12 weeks of unpaid parental leave. Nothing has been added since then. Almost no men avail of it, according the Center for American Progress, a Washington think-tank. Perhaps they would if it was worth their while.

曾有一段時間，承諾重振美國製造業本可以一箭雙鵰。但大多數選民都感到製造業“迴流”只是一種幻想——至少在增加工作機會方面。此外，希拉里2008年已嘗試過這一路線但失敗了，而且大部分已消失的藍領工作都是男性從事的。在目前後危機時代的經濟中，希拉里面臨截然不同的挑戰。在臨時工化行業的兼職趨勢中，女性往往是首當其衝。比起其他大多數發達經濟體，她們的待遇也糟糕得多。在富裕的民主國家中，只有美國女性沒有權利帶薪休產假、沒有聯邦政府對兒童保育設施的資助，而且在懷孕期間很少受到保障。根據比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)擔任總統第一年期間通過的一項法案，美國人享有12周的無薪育嬰假。從那時起，再沒有增加。華盛頓智庫美國進步中心(Center for American Progress)數據顯示，幾乎沒有男性享用過這一權利。如果這樣做是值得的話，也許他們會休育嬰假。

But the real scandal is America’s falling rate of female employment. Until 2000, the US female labour force participation rate climbed in parallel with those of other countries. Since then, it has dropped while it has continued to improve elsewhere. Only 75 per cent of US women between the ages of 25 and 54 are in work, compared to an average of 79 per cent in the other 22 advanced countries. A key reason is the weakness of women’s benefits. In places like Germany and Canada, the gap between men and women’s pay is far smaller than in the US. That is partly because far more men take parental leave. It is also because the US has much weaker childcare support. In almost half of US states, it costs more to put two kids in childcare than the average cost of housing. Little wonder so many women have been dropping out of work.

但真正的醜聞在於美國女性就業率的下降。直到2000年，美國女性勞動參與率一直與其他國家同步攀升。自2000年以來，美國女性勞動參與率開始下降，而其他地區的該比率在繼續上升。在25至54歲的美國女性中，僅有75%的人在工作，而其他22個發達經濟體平均爲79%。一個關鍵原因是職場女性福利的薄弱。在德國和加拿大等國家，男女收入的差距比美國小得多。部分原因在於更多男性休育嬰假，也在於美國對兒童保育的支持要弱得多。在美國將近一半的州里，把兩個孩子託付給兒童保育機構的費用高於住房的平均費用。也難怪有如此多的女性退出職場。

In this respect, Mrs Clinton’s candidacy comes at precisely the right moment. America’s biggest economic problem is its stagnant middle class. It will probably be the key issue in the 2016 presidential election. The most obvious remedy is to bring more women into the US workforce and keep them there. The larger the labour force, the longer the US Federal Reserve can keep interest rates low without triggering inflation. The more secure women feel in their jobs, the lower the turnover costs to business. It costs far more to find and train new employees than to retain them with decent benefits.

在這一方面來講，希拉里成爲總統候選人正逢其時。美國最大的經濟問題是中產階層的停滯不前。這很可能將成爲2016年總統大選中一個關鍵問題。最顯而易見的解決辦法是讓更多女性進入職場，並留住她們。勞動力隊伍越大，美聯儲(Fed)就可以把低利率維持得越久而不引發通脹。女性在工作中越是感到安全，企業的員工流失成本就越低。找到並培訓新員工的成本，遠高於以體面的福利留住他們的成本。

The economic case is a no-brainer — The US is a generation late to the party. But the political case may be tougher to sell. In recent years, Democrats, including Mrs Clinton, have focused on the Republican “war on women”. Republican-controlled states have busily been making it harder to get abortions. They have also been restricting access to contraception. Mrs Clinton’s temptation will be to up that rhetorical ante. It would be a mistake. Republicans will do that for themselves. Her focus should be the US economy. Women’s issues are no longer just women’s issues, if they ever were. Their economic wellbeing is a key to lifting America’s long-term growth.

從經濟問題入手非常容易讓人理解——在恢復繁榮上，美國已經遲到了一代人的時間。但從政治問題說服別人或許就困難很多。近幾年來，包括希拉里在內的民主黨人把注意力集中在共和黨人的“反婦女戰爭”(War on Women)上。共和黨人控制的州一直忙於給墮胎設置更多障礙。這些州也一直給獲得避孕服務設限。希拉里將面臨升級這方面論調的誘惑，不過這將是一個錯誤。共和黨人自己將會這麼做。希拉里的關注焦點應是美國經濟。婦女問題如今不再僅僅是婦女問題，就算曾經是的話。婦女的經濟福祉是提振美國的長期增長的一個關鍵因素。

The more Mrs Clinton can make voters think about that, the likelier she is to turn the conversation her way.

希拉里越是能讓選民們想到這一點，她就越有可能讓對話朝着對自己有利的方向發展。