印度可以同時打贏中國和巴基斯坦?

Army chief declares that India is perfectly capable of winning a two-front war against China and Pakistan. But consider this: the Chinese military has two million active personnel Pakistan has 600000 while India has 1.3 million. The math does does not seem to favor India.

陸軍參謀長聲稱印度具有完勝中巴兩線作戰的能力。但是考慮一下，解放軍有200萬而巴基斯坦則有60萬現役軍人，但印度只有130萬，數字上看好像印度並不那麼美麗。

After 26/11 India was sorely tempted to retaliate against Pakistan. As it was after the attack on Parliament in 2001. But after every major provocation it dithers. For sure there is heavy American pressure. But Indian defence planners also seem unsure.

在2008年11月26號孟買恐怖襲擊事件後，印度非常想要報復巴基斯坦。同樣的，2001年印度議會恐怖襲擊事件後印度也想報復巴基斯坦。但是每次進行挑釁後印度都放棄了。當然有來自美國的重大壓力。但是印度的國防計劃者們貌似也不是很確定。。

Pakistan will fight to the hilt any Indian attack but after a few weeks it will wilt. It hopes that the Chinese open a second front against India but that could be a forlorn hope. The Chinese inscrutable as ever may decide to do nothing. Or they may show solidarity with Pakistan and hit India.

R03;巴基斯坦剛開始會全力迎擊對印的戰爭，但是堅持不了多久。他們會寄希望於中國開闢對印的第二條戰線但是可能希望渺茫。中國一如既往的模糊戰略也許什麼都不做，也許會爲了巴鐵的關係攻擊印度。

India would then be forced to take on China much to Pakistan’s delight. All along there would be intense American pressure to bring a subcontinental war to a halt. But it may not succeed. In the absence of China a sinking Pakistan would be tempted to resort to nukes.

解釋印度將正中巴基斯坦的下懷被迫對抗中國。然後美國會施加壓力終止印度次大陸戰爭。但是可能不會成功。如果中國不提供幫助，弱勢的巴基斯坦可能會藉助於使用核武器。

The situation would be as complicated in case Pakistan initiates a war against India. In a couple of years the Taliban should have taken Kabul. Thousands of foreign jihadis—Chechens Uighurs Arabs—would suddenly become unemployed then.

如果巴基斯坦發動針對印度的戰爭，情況將變得複雜起來。幾年之內，塔利班將佔領喀布爾。屆時大量外國聖戰分子將失去僱主，包括車臣人，維吾爾人和阿拉伯人。

Pakistan will almost without fail redirect them as well as its own jihadis against Kashmir. It tried the same in 1989 had the Indian army on the ropes but the army recovered and the Pakistani putsch failed. But now presents another golden opportunity that Pakistan is sure not to miss.

巴基斯坦勢必將用這些人以及國內的聖戰分子來對付克什米爾。1989年巴基斯坦也採取了同樣的手段，讓印度軍隊差點無力招架，但是印度軍隊後來恢復了，所以巴基斯坦的暴動才失敗了。但是現在巴基斯坦又迎來了新的機會，它是不會錯過的。

The only difference is that the Indian army is battle-hardened now and well-versed in counter-insurgency. So Pakistan will find it hard to detach Kashmir from India. Frustrated it may launch an attack elsewhere once again hoping the Chinese would join in the pArty.

唯一不同的是印度軍隊現在是身經百戰，精通反叛亂。所以巴基斯坦很難把喀什米爾和印度分開。無奈之下，它可能會在其他地方發動攻擊並希望中國加入戰鬥。

But with India not the aggressor China might be more reluctant to do so. Or they just might. With the Chinese one never knows. Indian defence planners must then necessarily plan for a two-front war. How prepared are they?

但是由於印度不是侵略者，所以中國可能不願意參戰。也有可能參戰，中國人的心理誰又能瞭解呢。印度國防規劃者有必要做好兩線作戰的規劃。他們準備得怎麼樣了？

The vast majority of India’s men and munitions face Pakistan. Things look rather bleak on its eastern front. Each time a few Chinese soldiers show up on the border an edgy army alxs the media which raises a national alarm. The ghost of 1962 is still alive and kicking.

印度絕大多數人和武器都面對着巴基斯坦。所以東線看起來相當暗淡。每次一些中國士兵出現在邊境，印度陸軍就感到急躁不安，然後通知媒體，然後由媒體引發全國警報。1962年的幽靈依然陰魂不散。

The Chinese have unveiled two types of stealth fighters. The stealth fighter is an amazing conventional weapon. Evading radar and hence detection it can hone in with exact precision on an enemy target destroy it and return home unscathed.

中國已經公佈了兩款隱形戰鬥機。隱形戰鬥機是一種很棒的常規武器，能夠躲避雷達的偵測，長驅直入，以極度精確的打擊摧毀敵方目標，然後毫髮無損地返航。

India is light years away from developing any reliable fighter jet leave alone a stealth. India’s primary deterrent against China seems to be missiles but long-range missiles can go awry. Aim for Shanghai but plonk yourself in the water. An Indian proposal to raise a mountain strike corps aimed against China was scrapped apparently for lack of money.

研發出可靠的噴氣式戰鬥機對於印度來說仍然是一件遙不可及的事，更遑論隱形戰鬥機了。印度把導彈當作威懾中國的主要手段，然而遠程導彈可能會飛往錯誤的方向，本來是瞄着上海發射，但結果卻一頭扎進了海里。（印度的布朗運動彈已經名聲在外了麼。。。）印度的一項旨在建立山地打擊軍以應對中國的提議也由於顯而易見的資金缺乏而作罷。

Indian defence planners have been following a twin-track weaponization policy. They fund indigenous arms development but even 70 years after Independence Indian defence labs cannot produce a decent pistol.

在軍備發展方面，印度的國防規劃者們一直遵循着外購與自研並舉的雙軌政策，他們爲本土的武器研發提供資金。然而，即便是在國家獨立了70年之後，印度的軍工科研院所甚至連一支像樣的手槍都還造不出來。

The labs moan that the powers that be are really only interested in acquiring arms from abroad perhaps because of all the cuts involved. That may well be the case but the point is that India must arm itself effectively whether indigenously or through foreign means.

各個研究所都在抱怨政府說 只對從外國獲取裝備感興趣，可能是與所有開支的削減有關。或許事情真是如此，但是關鍵在於，印度必須高效的武裝自己，不管是否國產抑或靠海外渠道。

The previous government was so haunted by the ghost of Bofors that it literally put a stop to any major weapons acquisition. The current government seems keen to undo past mistakes but it has convolved foreign arms procurement with its Make in India campaign.

歷任政府都被“博福斯幽靈”搞得心神不寧，那真真切切的讓主戰武器採買近乎停滯。現任政府看上去急切的想從過去的錯誤中脫開，但是“印度製造”運動對外國武器採購造成了不利的影響

The Rafale was the winner in a tortuous tender process but when the government arm-twisted the French to make the jet in India they balked. The price would have to go up considerably because the French would have to set up foreign supply chains in India Indian manufacturers not seen as being up to the mark.

陣風戰鬥機是這場曲折的招標的大贏家，但是當印度政府對法國施壓以使該機能在印度製造時，他們畏縮了。那勢必導致價格飛漲，因爲法國必須在印度建立一條海外供應鏈，而印度製造商（的工業水平）看上去並不足以符合標準。

The air force needs about 200 fighter jets. The Americans seem inclined to make the F-16 in India but they do not not appear terribly convincing. Saab of Sweden has been an aggressive promisor but then again. Conflating buying foreign jets with making them in India could take years before they take to the skies.

空軍需要約200架戰機。美國人似乎傾向於讓印度製造F16，但是他們並沒有表現得讓人完全信服。不過反倒是瑞典薩博公司（Artoria：即國內所稱“紳寶”）誠意滿滿。在戰機飛上天之前，海外購買與國產化加起來得花很長時間。

And then what about the stealth? India needs at least a few stealth fighters of its own to counter China. Any company we get conventional jets from must have stealth capability as well as the willingness to supply it to us.

然後呢，隱形戰機怎樣？印度需要最低程度的隱形戰機以反制中國。向我們出售傳統戰機的公司必須具備隱形技術以及向我們提供隱形戰機的意願。

Finally the military has to be made a more attractive career choice. The army suffers from a shortage of 10000 officers. A senior army officer recounted that in a country like India there is no shortage of people. But the army needs quality people. After Independence the army was a career of choice which led to the stunning 1971.

最後，軍隊必須變成一個更加吸引人的職業選擇。陸軍現在短缺1萬名軍官。一名高級陸軍官員稱印度這樣的國家根本不缺人。但是軍隊需要高質量的人才。獨立後，軍隊變成了一個特別的職業，導致了1971年的大勝（第三次印巴戰爭）。

In both Pakistan and China military personnel are looked after from cradle to grave. We treat our veterans shabbily. Any army necessarily has to have brawn but to prevail it must have brains like Napoleon Clausewitz and Rommel. Do we?

在中巴兩國，軍人的一生都有優待。我們對待自己的退伍兵很吝嗇。對於任何一隻軍隊力量不可或缺，但更需要像拿破崙、克勞塞維茨和隆美爾一樣的領袖。我們有嗎？