巴基斯坦民主的關鍵時刻

No Pakistani government has served out its full term since independence in 1947. This dismal democratic record is set to continue with the ousting of prime minister Nawaz Sharif on Friday.

自1947年獨立以來，巴基斯坦沒有一屆政府服務完整個任期。巴總理納瓦茲?謝里夫(Nawaz Sharif)上週五遭解職意味着這一令人沮喪的民主記錄將延續下去。

The accompanying allegations of corruption are serious and extend to at least five members of the Sharif family. But the military’s role in the process is also a matter of concern.

隨之而來的嚴重腐敗指控已經波及謝里夫家族至少5名成員。但巴軍方在此過程中所扮演的角色也是一個令人擔憂的問題。

This saga began with last year’s Panama Papers leak, revealing the Sharifs’ children to be the proud, but undeclared, owners of some decidedly high-end property overlooking London’s Hyde Park.

這場大戲始於去年的巴拿馬文件(Panama Papers)外泄——曝光了謝里夫子女們名下一些未申報的、可俯瞰倫敦海德公園(Hyde Park)的高端房產。

The family’s claims that the suspect assets had come from legitimate business interests were rather undermined by forensic analysis showing documents, supposedly created in 2006 and central to the family’s defence, were typed with a computer font that was not commercially available at the time. In Pakistan, the scandal became known as #fontgate.

謝里夫家族聲稱這些受到質疑的資產來自合法商業利益，但這一說法遭到了法院調查的駁斥。調查發現，一些據稱2006年簽署、該家族用以辯護的核心文件，用的是一種當時還未開放商用的電腦字體打印的。這樁醜聞在巴基斯坦被稱爲“#字體門”(#fontgate)。

In removing Mr Sharif from office, the supreme court simply cited two articles in the constitution — both inserted by a past military dictatorship — that require office-holders to be honest and morally upright. Mr Sharif will now likely face corruption charges.

在解除謝里夫的職務時，巴最高法院僅引用了憲法中的兩條——均由以前的軍事獨裁政府寫入——要求公職人員誠實並堅守道德規範。謝里夫現在很可能面臨腐敗指控。

As ever in Pakistan, tensions between civilian government and the powerful military hugely complicate the issue. Mr Sharif has had two previous stints as prime minister and on both occasions his early exit was at the behest of the generals. On this occasion there has been inevitable speculation that the military was pressing for such an outcome again.

與以往一樣，巴基斯坦文職政府與強大軍方之間的緊張關係使這個問題更加複雜化。謝里夫此前曾兩度出任總理，而之前他兩次提前下臺都是拜將軍們所賜。這一次，外界不可避免會猜測，軍方正在爲再次達到這一結果施壓。

One of Mr Sharif’s stated foreign policy goals — better relations with India — posed a particular threat to the army. The perceived Indian threat has ensured the military receives a large slice of Pakistan’s budget and helped the generals maintain autonomy from civilian meddling. This extends to the media, where some local television stations have instituted a 30 second buffer in live broadcasts to mute any criticism of the army.

謝里夫提出的外交政策目標之一是改善與印度的關係，這尤其對巴軍方造成了威脅。讓民衆感受到來自印度的威脅確保了軍方可以獲得巴基斯坦很大一部分預算，並有助於將軍們保持不受政府幹預的自治權。軍方的壓力也傳導到了媒體，一些地方電視臺在現場直播中設置了30秒的緩衝，以屏蔽對軍隊的任何批評聲音。

The India fixation has also benefited Pakistan’s premier spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, which allegedly maintains murky relations with various militants — triggering last year’s refusal by the US to release $300m in military reimbursements over concerns that Pakistan was not fighting the Taliban’s Haqqani network.

對印度的關注也有利於巴基斯坦最高間諜機構三軍情報局(Inter-Services Intelligence)，據說該機構與各種武裝分子保持着不可告人的關係，導致去年美國擔心巴基斯坦沒有打擊塔利班(Taliban)的“哈卡尼網絡”(Haqqani network)，拒絕報銷3億美元軍費。

There is of course an argument that this whole affair is cause for applause: Mr Sharif was ousted as a result of a formal judicial process, offering a sharp example that Pakistan elite society is actually moving against endemic corruption.

當然，有種說法是這整件事值得鼓掌：謝里夫經由正式司法程序被罷免提供了一個鮮明的例證——巴基斯坦精英社會實際上正在對抗大範圍的腐敗。

The judiciary has certainly reasserted itself since lawyers fought against then-President General Pervez Musharraf’s firing of judges in 2007. But in the Sharif case, the six member joint investigative team who produced the report, spurring the supreme court action, included representatives from two military intelligence agencies. That alone raises concerns over the fairness of the process.

確實，在2007年時任總統佩爾韋茲?穆沙拉夫上將(General Pervez Musharraf)宣佈解除法官職務，引發律師界與之對抗之後，司法機構已經重新確立了其權威地位。但在謝里夫案中，製作報告、促使最高法院解除謝里夫職務的六人聯合調查小組中包括兩名軍事情報機構的代表。僅這一點就引起了對該司法過程公正性的關切。

What happens next is critical. Several would-be replacements for Mr Sharif, such as former cricketer Imran Khan and Benazir Bhutto’s husband Asif Ali Zardari, are already facing corruption-related charges. And it remains the case that the army has used civilian political vacuums in the past to take control.

接下來的走向是關鍵。謝里夫的幾個接替人選——如前板球運動員伊姆蘭?汗(Imran Khan)和貝娜齊爾?布托(Benazir Bhutto)的丈夫阿西夫?阿里?扎爾達里(Asif Ali Zardari)——已經面臨腐敗相關指控。而軍方以前曾利用文職政治真空來取得控制。

Meanwhile, if the judiciary wants to solidify its independence and demonstrate real action on malfeasance at the top of Pakistan society then it will make sure Mr Sharif has a fair and transparent trial.

同時，如果司法部門想要鞏固自己的獨立性，並證明真正對巴基斯坦社會高層的違法行爲採取了行動，就應確保謝里夫受到公平透明的審判。