爲什麼威爾士不會要求公投獨立

AFTER months in which it looked all but certain that Scotland would vote “No” to independence, there is now real concern in London at the possibility of Scotland opting for a divorce this Thursday. Polls suggest a closer race than many had predicted, with the “Yes” campaign for Scottish independence even nudging ahead of the lacklustre “No” campaign in some surveys over the past two weeks. But if Scotland does leave the United Kingdom, what of Wales? Would a Scottish “Yes” vote prompt calls from the Welsh to hold their own referendum on independence, precipitating the exit of Wales from the Union too?

In fact, although Wales is in a similar position to Scotland, both in terms of history and its present constitutional arrangements, if the polls are to be believed there is almost no appetite for independence in Wales. A YouGov poll in April asked Welsh voters: “Should Wales be an independent country?”, and the answer was a resounding No. Only 12% answered positively, with 74% against (and 13% don’t knows). Curiously, the same poll showed that more Welsh supported independence for Scotland than for their own country. Furthermore, that 12% figure is probably on the high side, as several other surveys have shown support for Welsh independence at more like 5%. Not even all supporters of Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, are in favour of independence. If Scotland votes "No" on September 18th it will certainly get more powers devolved from Westminster to Edinburgh anyway, and the same is bound to happen to Wales. But that is not expected to shift the basic Welsh objection to independence much.

There are several reasons for this lack of enthusiasm. Some worry about Wales's viability as an independent nation. Wales is smaller, with a population of just over 3m, compared with Scotland’s 5.3m, and nor does it have such an obvious source of income (and power) as Scotland does with its North Sea oil. The amount of oil and gas left in the North Sea for an independent Scotland to exploit is hotly disputed, but it nonetheless adds weight to the argument of the “Yes” campaign that Scotland can go it alone financially. Wales used to be a great coal-producing country, but most of that industry is long gone. These might be termed negative reasons to stay in the Union, born of a well-founded fear of how Wales might do on its own. But the Welsh also have more positive reasons to stay in the Union than do the Scots, principally because they seem to be more comfortable with their dual identity as Welsh and British. The Welsh enjoy a high degree of devolved government and combine this with a strong sense of cultural autonomy. Thus Wales is officially a bilingual country (all the road signs, for instance, are in Welsh and English), and it is estimated that about 20% of the population speak Welsh. Wales has distinct cultural and sporting festivals, and a distinct national sport—rugby football.

Yet despite this firm Welsh identity, Wales is closely linked to England both economically and politically—more so than Scotland. Telephone records reveal that whereas the Scots mainly talk to each other, the Welsh are mainly chatting to the English and others outside Wales. Furthermore, the Welsh are proud of the contribution that their own politicians have made to building modern Britain. David Lloyd George was British prime minister during the latter half of the first world war, and Aneurin Bevan, from Monmouthshire, founded the National Health Service in the Labour government immediately after the second world war. Conversely, the Welsh have been more accepting of English politicians occupying Welsh seats; Labour Party leader Michael Foot sat in Bevan’s old seat at Ebbw Vale for decades. It is only in more recent years, since the 1990s, that Scotland has consistently produced politicians that rose to the top of Westminster politics (such as Gordon Brown, prime minister in 2007-10). Whichever way the Scots vote, it looks as if the United Kingdom will at least hang on to Wales.據《經濟學人》報道，幾個月前，蘇格蘭會對獨立投否定票還很確定，但現在對倫敦的英國政府來說，9月18日週四蘇格蘭公投是否獨立才成爲真正需要關心的問題。民意調查顯示，與之前的預測相比，支持與反對蘇格蘭獨立的人的人數越來越接近。在過去兩週的一些調查中，贊成獨立的人甚至稍微超過了不贊成獨立的人數。但如果蘇格蘭可以脫離英國，那威爾士呢？蘇格蘭贊成獨立的公投會不會鼓勵威爾士人也舉行獨立公投，進而使威爾士也從英國分離出去呢？

實際上，雖然在歷史情況和憲政安排現狀上，威爾士和蘇格蘭很相似，但威爾士的選民毫無脫離英國的興趣。4月，輿觀調查網在一個民意調查中詢問威爾士選民：“是否威爾士應當成爲一個獨立的國家？”回答是響亮的：不應當！只有12%的人支持威爾士獨立，74%的人反對（13%的人說不知道）。讓人驚訝的是，在同樣的民意調查中，與支持自己的地區獨立相比，有更多的威爾士人支持蘇格蘭的獨立。此外，12%可能是比較高的數據，其他調查顯示支持威爾士獨立的人大概有5%。甚至並不是所有的威爾士國家政黨——威爾士黨（Plaid Cymru）的支持者都支持威爾士獨立。如果蘇格蘭9月18日公投決定不從英國獨立，那麼很明顯蘇格蘭可以從英國議會獲得更多權力，相似的情況也會發生在威爾士。不過，這也不可能使威爾士人反對獨立的基本情況有所轉變。

威爾士人對獨立不感興趣有幾個原因。有些人擔心威爾士成爲一個獨立國家後的生存能力。威爾士與蘇格蘭相比很小，只有300萬人口，而蘇格蘭有530萬。同時威爾士沒有明顯的收入來源，而蘇格蘭有着北海石油。在北海還有多少石油和天然氣可以由獨立後的蘇格蘭開發還充滿爭議，但這還是爲蘇格蘭的獨立增加了些許動力——至少蘇格蘭在財政上的獨立成爲可能。過去威爾士可以生產出大量煤炭，但這些工業在很早前就消失了。這也許提供了留在英聯邦的消極理由，人們對威爾士如何靠自己生存下去有種天生而有理由的恐懼感。但威爾士與蘇格蘭相比，有更多積極的理由留在英聯邦。很重要的一點是因爲威爾士人更滿意自己的雙重身份：既是威爾士人，又是英國人。威爾士有着享有高度自治權的政府，還有着強烈的文化自治感。因此，從官方角度說，威爾士是一個雙語地區（例如，所有的路標，既有威爾士語又有英語），據估計有20%的人口說威爾士語。威爾士有着特別的文化和運動節日，還有一個特別的國家級運動——橄欖球。

雖然有着這些顯著的威爾士自我標識，與蘇格蘭相比，威爾士與英格蘭有着緊密的政治經濟聯繫。根據電話通話情況顯示，蘇格蘭人主要和蘇格蘭人通話，而威爾士人更多的與英格蘭人或在外的威爾士人聊天。此外，威爾士人爲他們自己的政治家爲建設現代英國作出的貢獻而感到自豪。戴維·勞合·喬治（David Lloyd George）是一戰後期英國的首相。來自威爾士蒙茅斯郡（Monmouthshire）的安奈林·貝文（Aneurin Bevan）在二戰剛一結束，就在工黨政府內建立了國家衛生署。相反的，威爾士人更接受英格蘭政治家擔任威爾士政府的官員職位。工黨領導人邁克爾·富特（Michael Foot）在埃布韋爾貝文原來的位置上做了幾十年。只是在近幾年，蘇格蘭纔不斷出現進入英國議會的政治家，如2007年至2010年的英國首相戈登·布朗（Gordon Brown）。不論蘇格蘭公投的結果如何，看起來大不列顛及北愛爾蘭聯合王國至少能一直與威爾士在一起。