特朗普大搞單邊主義“底氣”何來
近期，以不按牌理出牌、特立獨行的美國總統特朗普再次發飆，掀起了一陣新的單邊主義狂潮，舉世爲之側目。
US President Donald Trump, known for his unconventional and sometimes eccentric moves and personality, was making waves again by playing up protectionism and unilateralism, and this shocked the whole world.
在國際政治領域，特朗普不斷狂熱“退羣”，繼執政第一年多次“退羣”之後，不久前又退出了伊朗核協議和聯合國人權理事會。而且，特朗普不會就此止步。依其“單邊”邏輯，他退出幾乎所有不是由美國獨家主導的國際組織或協議也是可能的。
In the international political arena, it seems Trump is keen on withdrawing the US from international or multilateral organizations and deals. In the first year of his presidency, he exited several of them, most recently, the comprehensive Iranian nuclear deal and the United Nations Human Rights Council, and still, there seems no sign of an end to it. Considering his logic for unilateralism, no one should be surprised if he decided to exit all international organizations or deals which are not dominated by the US.
在世界經濟領域，特朗普全面挑起貿易戰，搞得硝煙四起，全球不安。其中與盟國鋼鋁產品加徵關稅之爭導致最近一次G7峯會形成六對一局面，特朗普不但遲到早退，還拒籤聯合公報，使G7峯會歷史上第一次不歡而散。日前，特朗普還威脅要對歐盟汽車加徵高額關稅，雙方貿易爭端可能升級。特朗普對中國則掄起了最狠的貿易大棒，不顧WTO規則和雙方達成的協議，繼公佈對華500億美元商品加徵懲罰性關稅清單，又威脅要對高達2000億美元的中國產品加徵關稅。如果他真這樣做，無異於朝着將中美貿易“歸零”的方向走，將產生災難性後果。
On the global economic front, Trump is waging trade wars with many countries, including US allies, and this has given the world jitters. US tariff spat with the European Union over steel and aluminum products led to its conflict with six other G7 members at the Quebec summit. Trump was not only late for the meeting and left early, but also refused to sign the joint statement, leading to a situation in which the G7 summit, for the first time, ended without any statement issued. Trump again threatened to levy additional tariffs on automobiles imported from the EU, and trade tensions will likely escalate. As far as China is concerned, Trump brandished the big stick of trade tariffs, and in disregard of World Trade Organization rules and mutual agreements, threatened to impose additional tariffs on products from China worth $200 billion, after having announced punitive tariffs on Chinese products worth $50 billion. If he really followed through on tariff plans, he would destroy China-US trade.
在地緣戰略領域，特朗普用行動落實將美國戰略中心從反恐向與大國地緣競逐的轉變。在西線，首次在波蘭駐軍，加強了在歐洲尤其是在東歐和波羅的海沿岸國家的軍事存在與活動，對俄羅斯形成抵近戰略圍堵態勢。在東線，加緊實施“印太戰略”，罕見地強化對華遏制，尤其在臺灣問題上，頻踩中國紅線，冒可能引發雙方戰略碰撞的風險。同時，推出多年來美國耗費最高的軍事預算，大力擴充軍備，特別着力研發新式核武器，並宣佈推動組建“太空部隊”，明確提出要確保美國的太空霸主地位，以圖取得對中俄全面絕對軍事優勢，爲美國獨霸世界掃清主要障礙。
On the geopolitical front, Trump's unilateral moves represented a fundamental shift of America's strategic priorities from terrorism to rivalry with major countries. On the Western front, the US, for the first time, stationed troops in Poland, which strengthened its military presence in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and countries along the Baltic Sea, and is containing Russia. On the Eastern front, the US advocated and implemented the Indo-Pacific strategy, which uNPRecedentedly strengthened its containment policy against China. On the question of Taiwan, the US repeatedly tested the red line drawn by China, and risked triggering strategic conflicts between the two major powers. The US adopted a big defense budget to expand its military capabilities, in particular, the development of new nuclear weapons, and announced the establishment of its space forces to seek “American dominance in space” so as to establish America's absolute military advantage over China and Russia and to clear hurdles for American hegemony.
在中東，特朗普推行極端親以政策，放任並支持以色列霸道橫行；極端敵視和極限制裁伊朗，強化對敘利亞的軍事幹預和打擊，全面攪亂了地區局勢，使之面臨爆發更大戰亂的危機局面。
In the Middle East, Trump adopted a policy that favors Israel by tolerating and supporting Israel's domineering activities, is hostile toward Iran, and calls for greater military interference and strikes in Syria. This fundamentally disrupted the regional situation and heightens the risk of full-blown war.
特朗普敢於同國際社會對着幹，肆無忌憚地大搞單邊主義，有其特有的原因和條件。
Then, let's take a look at why Trump dared to buck the global trend to take reckless, unilateral moves.
第一，錯位的指導理念。特朗普施政的核心理念是“美國優先”，聲稱“世界各國必須爲美國第一讓路”。如此毫不掩飾地表露要將美國利益凌駕於別國之上，在美國曆屆總統中極爲罕見。這使人彷彿聽到了老列強對弱小國家巧取豪奪時代的回聲。在這種時代錯位理念指導下，美國必然要以鄰爲壑，損人利己，不擇手段地打壓和削弱競爭對手，以服務於“美國再度強大”的戰略需要。他自以爲這一套已顯成效，壓制了對手，增加了美國霸權實力地位，因而樂此不疲甚至變本加厲而爲之。
First, his mismatched guiding philosophy. The core philosophy of Trump's administration is “America First”, and he even claimed that no one may obstruct the road of the US. It is uNPRecedented that a US president directly and openly places American interests above any other countries. This seemed to echo the age of plundering the weak by the old imperial powers. Guided by such outdated principles, it was natural that the Trump administration adopted a beggar-thy-neighbor approach and resorted to every possible means to contain and weaken its competitors so as to serve its strategic goal of “Making America Great Again”. Trump assumed that his tactics to contain competitors and solidify American dominance were working, and therefore doubled down on the capricious and unilateral moves.
第二，利用超強國力支撐。特朗普有恃無恐地橫行，就是仗着美國的獨超強勢。雖然當今世界正經歷百年大變局，美國世界霸主地位在走下坡路，但它仍是全球唯一超級大國，綜合國力尤其是軍事和經濟實力仍獨步天下。不少國家安全上要依靠它，各國對外開放發展經濟都有賴於它。美國曆屆政府都恃力逞強，堅持推行霸道強權政策。特朗普則更走極端，在國際關係中動輒使用“極限施壓”、“極限制裁”、“零容忍”、“踩紅線”、“退羣”等超高壓手段訛詐威嚇和遏制對手，迫其作出讓步，以實現美國利益最大化。
Second, America's national strength. Trump counted on America's super strength for his reckless moves. Although the world is undergoing a fundamental transformation and the US' global dominance is waning, America is still the world's only superpower, and its overall national strength, particularly economic and military prowess, is still unrivaled. Many countries are relying on the US for security, and more countries depend on the US for economic development. US administration have a record of cashing in on American strength. Trump went even farther by blackmailing, intimidating or containing others through the random use of “extreme pressure”, “extreme sanctions”, “zero tolerance”, “breach of bottom lines,” and “withdrawals” from organizations or deals in international relations. By doing so, Trump intended to coerce others to yield and therefore maximize American interests.
第三，一定的社會基礎。特朗普是憑反傳統精英政治和“讓美國再度強大”的口號，得到在美國很有聲勢的保守勢力和民粹思想較重的中下層羣體支持而崛起的。他推行強硬單邊主義政策且在某些方面有所見好，又助長了美國政治保守主義和社會民粹主義，也在一定程度上提升了他的支持率，擴大了他的社會基礎。現在主導美國政治的共和黨趨於保守化、民粹化和“特朗普化”，完成了對特朗普由厭嫌到接納到擁戴的“三級跳”式轉變。這使特朗普更加我行我素。近日他竟宣佈要世界各國在11月4日前完全停止進口伊朗石油，“誰要是進口伊朗石油，就制裁誰”。這無異對各國發出了“最後通牒”。如此極端單邊主義霸道作爲，在戰後國際關係史上幾無先例。
Third, some backing from social strata. Trump, shouting slogans against the traditional elite politics, rose to stardom and power with the support from powerful conservatives and the middle and lower social strata. His unilateral policies have helped fuel political conservatism and social populism in the American society, and to some extent, helped lift his popularity and consolidate the social foundation supporting him. The Republicans have undergone a three-phase makeover in their attitudes toward Trump – from dislike, to acceptance, to support. This gave Trump bigger confidence to act this way. He recently ordered all countries to completely stop importing Iranian crude oil from November 4, threatening to impose sanctions on any countries that continue to import Iranian oil after that. This is an ultimatum to all nations. Such extreme unilateral and hegemonic actions are uNPRecedented in the post-World War II history of international relations.
特朗普大搞單邊主義同他個人特質也有關係。他從一個純粹的商人一 躍而成美國總統，在思想上從極端個人主義發展爲極端民族利己主義，對世界大勢知之甚少，缺乏戰略和長遠視野，好急功近利。極端自私和短視也可以成爲一些人“無畏”和一意孤行的“底氣”。
In addition, Trump's reckless unilateral moves could also be attributed to his personality. When Trump, as a businessman, suddenly became president, he had to change himself from an extreme individualist to an extreme nationalist, who knows little about global affairs, lacks strategic and long-term vision and is always eager for quick successes and benefits. Someone so short-sighted and selfish would dare do anything.
特朗普的所作所爲已造成嚴重後果，使得國際關係和國際形勢出現近些年來少有的緊張動盪，損害了世界和平發展大局與各國利益，也使美國自己受損。他挑戰國際規制和國際秩序，一再出爾反爾自食其言，既使美國的國際信譽和聲望降到歷史谷底，陷於空前孤立，消損了其軟實力，也損害了其實際利益。幾乎所有美國發動貿易戰的對手都進行了有力反制，使美國陷於四面楚歌，其中加拿大對從美國進口價值126億美元的商品加徵25%的高額關稅，震動了美國的產業界。這些應能促使特朗普反思。希望他迴歸理性，回到同各國進行正常交往與合作的軌道，使美國擺脫與其他國家的對抗共輸，實現友好相處與互利共贏。
Trump's unilateral actions has had grave consequences. It has brought turmoil to international relations, harmed global peace and development and the interests of all nations, and harmed America itself. He challenged international rules and global order and repeatedly broke his own promises. This caused damage to America's international reputation, threw the US into uNPRecedented isolation, and undermined US' soft power. All countries have launched or are launching retaliatory measures against the US in the trade war. Canada has decided to impose an additional 25% tariffs on imports from the US worth $12.6 billion, jolting American industries. The retaliatory moves should be enough to serve as a wake-up call for Trump and should be able to force Trump to be rational. Hopefully Trump will soon return to the track of normal exchanges and cooperation with other countries and work together with them for mutual benefits and win-win outcomes.
