馬來西亞選舉,遭遇"華人海嘯"

“What else do the Chinese want?” screamed the banner headline in one of Malaysia’s most widely read, pro-Malay newspapers.
馬來西亞發行量最大並且親馬來人的報紙之一在一條通欄標題中嚷道：“華人還想要什麼？”

If anything summed up the real outcome of the southeast Asian country’s general election this week, it was this.
如果說有哪句話可以概括這個東南亞國家本週大選的實際結果，這句話就足以。

Malaysia, one of the region’s economic success stories and most remarkable multi-ethnic experiments, is struggling with worrying divisions.
馬來西亞正陷入令人擔心的分裂之中。馬來西亞是東南亞地區經濟發展取得成功的案例之一，同時也是一個引人注目的多族裔共處國家。

The party that improved most at this election, the most bitterly fought since Malaysia’s independence from Britain in 1957, was neither the main ruling party, the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), nor the opposition led by Anwar Ibrahim, probably Malaysia’s best-known political figure.
這是自1957年馬來西亞脫離英國殖民統治獲得獨立以來最激烈的一次選舉。在各個政黨中，選舉成績較上次選舉有明顯提升的既不是主要執政黨馬來民族統一機構（United Malays National Organisation，簡稱巫統），也不是馬來西亞政壇上最有名的人物安瓦爾•易卜拉欣(Anwar Ibrahim)領導的反對黨。

It was the Democratic Action party, the opposition coalition’s Chinese party. It not only won more seats than Mr Anwar’s party but trounced a candidate for the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition – of which Umno is the biggest member – in the key state of Johor, next to Singapore.
選績進步最多的是反對黨聯盟中的華裔政黨民主行動黨(Democratic Action)。該黨不僅奪得比安瓦爾所在政黨更多的席位，而且還在關鍵的柔佛州（與新加坡毗鄰）擊敗了一位來自執政聯盟——國民陣線聯盟（Barisan Nasional，簡稱國陣）的候選人。巫統是國陣中最大的政黨。

Najib Razak, sworn in as prime minister yesterday, recognised this as – in his own words – a “Chinese tsunami”. He is right to be concerned. Malaysia’s ethnic Chinese have been increasingly disaffected by a system of pro-Malay affirmative action policies that not only hand Malays privileged access to the country’s economic spoils but are crowding out Chinese children from the education system. They have apparently had enough.
週三宣誓就任馬來西亞總理的納吉布•拉扎克(Najib Razak)承認，這是一場“華人海嘯”（這是他的原話）。他的擔心是有道理的。馬來西亞華裔對親馬來人的“扶弱政策”(affirmative action)越來越不滿。扶弱政策不僅賦予馬來人在獲取經濟利益方面的特權，而且還將華裔子女擠出教育體系。華裔羣體顯然已經受夠了。

Making matters worse, Mr Anwar has still not conceded the election. He says the poll was stolen, accusing the election commission of complicity in fraud. The accusations range from the use of supposedly indelible ink that could be washed off, to the padding of marginal seats in key states with voters flown in from other parts of Malaysia.
更爲糟糕的是，安瓦爾仍不承認此次選舉結果。他表示，選票被竊取，並指責選舉委員會合謀舞弊。他提出多項指控，包括使用可以被輕易抹掉的所謂不褪色墨水投票，以及從其他地區派選民到勝選希望不大的關鍵州投票湊數。

The government has denied any impropriety and called such claims sour grapes. But awkwardly for Mr Najib, this election, the 13th in the country’s history, was already going to be close. Mr Anwar’s Pakatan Rakyat (People’s Alliance) rode a wave of popular disgust at corruption and cronyist links between Umno and Malay businesses to its best performance yet.
政府方面否認存在任何不當行爲，並稱此類指控是出於“酸葡萄心理”。但讓納吉布尷尬的是，在這場馬來西亞歷史上的第十三次選舉中，兩大陣營的實力頗爲接近。安瓦爾率領的人民聯盟(Pakatan Rakyat，簡稱民聯)取得了歷來最好的成績，這是得益於公衆普遍憎惡腐敗以及巫統與馬來企業之間的裙帶關係。

Swaths of urban Malay voters peeled away from Barisan, worsening a gulf between the two that was first exposed at the last election in 2008. Not only did Mr Anwar’s side win 89 seats in parliament – one seat more than Umno, it is worth noting – but it actually won the popular vote. Barisan Nasional clinched the poll in the end, but that was largely because of the ballast of a loyal base in rural heartlands and a gerrymandered constituency system that favours the incumbent.
大量的馬來裔城市選民拋棄了國陣，這加劇了兩大陣營在2008年上次選舉中首次曝出的深刻分歧。安瓦爾執掌的民聯不僅贏得了89個國會席位（有必要指出的是，這比巫統還多出一個席位），而且實際上還贏得了人頭票(popular vote)。雖然國陣最終贏得了選舉，但這在很大程度上歸功於農村地區穩定的忠實選民基礎，以及有利於現任政府的選區劃分體系。

This is not the sort of result that gives Mr Najib much of a mandate to take Malaysia to the next level of economic development and lead it out of a “middle income” trap. The election leaves Malaysia in the grip of a narrow “Umnocracy”, shorn of support from moderate Malays and Chinese, who alone make up a quarter of the population.
這種選舉結果無法賦予納吉布多少權力來領導馬來西亞步入下一個經濟發展階段，帶領國家走出“中等收入”陷阱。此次選舉將馬來西亞置於狹隘的“巫統政體”(Umnocracy)支配之下，喪失了馬來裔溫和派和華裔的支持。僅華人就佔到馬來西亞人口的四分之一。

Barisan had recently been cultivating an image of wasatiyyah, Malay for moderation. The arrival of Umnocracy makes this harder to attain.
國陣最近致力打造一種“中庸”形象。“巫統政體”的成型使這個目標更難實現。

The immediate challenge for Mr Najib is to survive. This seems a strange statement, given his side won. But his Umno was brutally unforgiving of his predecessor and sacked him after presiding over the loss of Barisan’s two-thirds majority at the last election.
納吉布迫在眉睫的挑戰是成功留任。這聽起來有些奇怪，畢竟是他所在的陣營贏得了大選。但在上次大選中由於巫統失去了國會三分之二的多數席位，納吉布的前任遭到巫統毫不留情的拋棄。

Umno would be wise to reflect that the forces that gave Mr Anwar’s coalition its best showing yet – demands for a free media and an end to rampant corruption – are not going away. Umno may be an inward-looking party, but it needs to understand that the foreign investment community is watching this stage of the “Malaysian experiment” very carefully.
巫統最好反思一下，讓安瓦爾領導的民聯獲得迄今最佳成績的因素——要求媒體自由和打擊腐敗——並未消失。巫統可能是一個保守內向的政黨，但它有必要明白，外國投資界正非常仔細地觀看着現階段的“馬來西亞實驗”。

Mr Najib – for all his faults, including a certain technocratic hesitation – must be given a chance to push through his reformist agenda, otherwise you can write off Malaysia for the next five years.
納吉布儘管存在種種不足，比如具有技術官僚猶豫不決的特點，但應該讓他有機會推行自己的改革議程，否則投資者今後5年可能就要拋棄馬來西亞了。