影響:中國經濟轉型將影響世界大綱

Forget the Federal Reserve. Forget the European Central Bank. The institution whose decisions will matter most to the world economy over the next five years is China's State Council.
忘記美聯儲(Federal Reserve)，忘記歐洲央行(European Central Bank)。未來五年，對世界經濟影響最大的決定將來自中國國務院。

The 30 or so officials that the National People's Congress will this month name as new five-year members of that powerful cabinet body will oversee a sweeping economic transformation with global consequences. How smoothly they manage China's planned transition from an unsustainable growth model that's been based on exports and state-directed investment toward an open, consumer-driven economy will have vast implications for the rest of the world. Prices for everything from European government bonds to iron ore are on the line. How it transpires will even dictate whether and when the Fed and the ECB can normalize their extraordinary monetary easing policies.
中國的全國人民代表大會本月將任命大約30名官員進入這個擁有很大權力的內閣機構，開始他們爲期五年的任期。這些官員將負責會在全球造成影響的全面經濟轉型。他們將實施中國的經濟轉型規劃，改變依賴出口和政府主導的投資的不可持續增長模式，轉向開放的消費者驅動型經濟，這一過程是否順利將會對世界其他地區產生深遠的影響。從歐洲各國政府債券到鐵礦石，一切資產的價格都會受到影響。這次轉型的過程甚至將決定美聯儲和歐洲央行能否讓他們不同尋常的貨幣寬鬆政策正常化。

So far, developments just before and during the NPC's two-week-long annual meeting suggest the council will continue a policy of incremental liberalization. Those changes are in the best interests of a more balanced global economy, but only so far as the economic pain that they deliver to key industries within and outside China is manageable. Tens of millions of jobs are on the line.
到目前爲止，全國人大爲期兩週的會議之前和會議期間的進展顯示，國務院將會繼續實施漸進式自由化的政策。這些改革最有利於實現更加平衡的全球經濟，但前提是它們爲中國內外的關鍵產業帶來的經濟痛苦是可控的。這種改革危及數千萬個工作崗位。

On March 1, curbs on property loans were announced and this week we learned that mainland-dwelling residents of Macau and Hong Kong can now invest in the stock market. In different ways--in the first case, by attacking a looming credit bubble and in the second, by bolstering capital markets as an alternative to banks and increasing cross-border fund flows--these measures chip away at the structure of a tightly managed financial system through which state-controlled banks have funneled Chinese households' excess savings into subsidized loans for massive investment projects.
3月1日，對購房貸款的限制措施出臺，本週，我們瞭解到居住在內地的港澳居民現在可以投資股市了。這兩個措施以不同的方式削弱了一個被牢牢控制的金融體系的結構，前者是通過打擊未來可能出現的信貸泡沫，後者則通過支持資本市場成爲銀行的替代品，增加跨境資金流動。國有銀行一直通過這一金融體系將中國居民的大量儲蓄用作大型投資項目的補貼貸款。

Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China has let the yuan rise by 0.6% against the dollar since Feb. 21 to close it in on a record high. The gain might not seem much, but it coincided with the dollar's own 1.6% increase versus the basket of seven advanced-country currencies that comprise the Wall Street Journal Dollar index and an almost-4% surge versus the yen. This makes the yuan one of the strongest performing currencies in the world right now. Along with some hefty wage increases in recent years, the currency realignment is simultaneously dissolving Chinese exporters' cost advantages while boosting the purchasing power of its army of budding consumers--a desirable and necessary power shift.
同時，自從2月21日以來，中國央行還允許人民幣兌美元升值0.6%，使人民幣收盤價創下新高。這個升值幅度可能不大，但是與此同時，美元自身對華爾街日報美元指數(the Wall Street Journal Dollar index )中七個發達國家的一籃子貨幣升值了1.6%，並且對日圓大幅升值近4%。這讓人民幣成爲目前全世界表現最強勁的貨幣之一。加上最近幾年工資水平幾次大幅上漲，貨幣的升值同時消除了中國出口商的成本優勢，同時提振了新興消費大軍的購買力，這是一個可喜和必要的力量轉移。

Nonetheless, recent data highlight the risks in the Chinese authorities' balancing act. Over the weekend, retail sales fell notably short of expectations, suggesting that domestic consumer spending is struggling to take the growth baton from overseas demand. The poor performance was in part caused by a crackdown on corruption, which is curtailing officials' expenditures on luxury goods. No good deed goes unpunished.
儘管如此，近來的數據卻凸顯出了中國當局在平衡經濟方面遇到的風險。上週末，中國零售數據遠低於預期，表明國內消費支出難以接過海外需求的“接力棒”來推動增長。從一定程度上來說，國內零售業績低迷是反腐造成的，因爲反腐會限制官員在奢侈品方面的支出。真是好人沒好報。

Making matters worse, inflation exceeded forecasts. That raised the prospect that the People's Bank of China will tighten monetary policy at an inopportune moment of economic slowdown. Sure enough, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier Wednesday that the central bank's low money supply target reflected its focus on price stability.
更糟的是，通脹超過了預期。人們認爲，中國央行(People's Bank of China)可能會收緊貨幣政策，儘管在眼下經濟放緩的時候，此舉顯得有些不合時宜。果然，中國央行行長周小川週三早些時候說，中國央行較低的貨幣供應量目標體現出對價格穩定的關注。

Even an otherwise welcome increase in exports last week is being challenged by economists who believe it was inflated by false orders. And electricity production, which is trusted as a more reliable, less-manipulated statistic, was down.
甚至本該令人滿意的上週出口額的增加也受到了經濟學家的質疑，他們認爲出口額因虛假訂單而有所誇大。另外，發電量也出現下降，外界一直認爲這是比較可信、受到較少控制的數據。

If you're wondering whether any of this matters, consider how outside markets reacted to these announcements from the world's second-largest economy. When the government unveiled tougher mortgage terms, the Australian dollar swooned as investors reasoned the measures would slow Chinese construction projects and sap demand for iron ore, one of Australia's main exports. And after the weekend's data provoked predictions that 2013 growth would fall short of the government's targeted 7.5% rate, markets across Asia fell.
如果你想知道上述任何一項數據是否會產生重要影響，那麼想想海外市場對世界第二大經濟體發佈這些消息的反應吧。中國政府公佈更嚴格的住房抵押貸款條件後，澳元應聲大跌，因爲投資者認爲，此舉將導致中國建築項目放緩，減少對鐵礦石的需求，而鐵礦石是澳大利亞主要的出口產品之一。上週末的數據不禁令外界預測，中國2013年的經濟增速將不及政府7.5%的目標。鑑於此，亞洲市場普遍下跌。

And consider this: The more economic challenges China faces at home, the less likely it is to use its $3 trillion stockpile of currency reserves to prop up the struggling bond markets of Europe or to help fund Washington's borrowings. In fact, if Beijing supports a stronger yuan, it may encourage a net repatriation of reserves. This could drive up interest rates in the West, and provoke financial instability.
想想看，中國國內面臨的經濟挑戰越多，它使用3萬億美元外匯儲備刺激歐洲苦苦掙扎的債市或爲華盛頓提供借款資金的可能性就越小。實際上，如果北京支持強勢人民幣，那就有可能促成外匯儲備的調回。這樣一來，也許會推動西方利率上漲，引發金融動盪。

China's tricky transition demands a deft handling of these competing challenges. Let's hope those new State Council members keep a steady hand on the tiller.
在中國複雜的過渡時期，需靈活處理這些相互矛盾的挑戰。讓我們期待中國國務院新領導人能穩住陣腳吧。