小小iPhone能給經濟帶來大影響
The next iPhone, which Apple Inc. plans to unveil this week, could do something the White House, Congress and Federal Reserve have struggled to do: boost the U.S. economy.
Sales of the new iPhone could add between a quarter and a half of a percentage point to the annualized rate of economic growth in the fourth quarter, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli estimates. That could help cushion the sluggish U.S. economy from other risks in the final months of the year.
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)首席美國經濟學家費洛裏(Michael Feroli)說，新iPhone的銷售有望使第四季度年化經濟增長率提高0.25至0.5個百分點。這可能有助於疲弱的美國經濟在年內最後幾個月應對來自其他風險的衝擊。In a note to clients Monday, titled 'Can one little phone impact GDP?,' Mr. Feroli walks through the math: J.P. Morgan's equity analysts expect Apple to sell about eight million new iPhone units in the final three months of 2012.
弗洛裏週一向客戶發送了一份題爲《小小手機能否影響GDP？》的報告，解釋了上述結論的計算過程：摩根大通股權分析師預計蘋果將在2012年最後三個月賣出約800萬部新iPhone。
If the phone sells for around $600, with about $200 of it counted as imported components, then $400 per phone would add to the government's measure of gross domestic product, the total value of the economy's output.
如果售價約爲600美元，其中摩根大通算爲進口零部件的部分在200美元左右，那麼每部手機就會使政府統計的國內生產總值(GDP)增加400美元。Even though consumers may not pay that much for the phone, because of subsidies from wireless carriers, Mr. Feroli explains that companies often report phone sales based on the price of the stand-alone product.
雖然電信運營商的補貼可能會讓消費者不用支付那麼多錢，但費洛裏解釋，企業在報告手機銷售額的時候，常常是基於單個產品的價格。The bottom line: The new iPhone sales could boost GDP by $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. That is an increase of 0.33 percentage point in the annualized rate of GDP growth. It could be even higher, he says. Even a third of a percentage point would limit the risk the economy would grow more slowly than J.P. Morgan's fourth-quarter growth projection of 2%.
總之，新iPhone的銷售額有望將第四季度的GDP提高32億美元，摺合成年率爲128億美元，相當於年化GDP增長率提高0.33個百分點。弗洛裏說，實際可能還會更高。哪怕只有三分之一個百分點，也會降低第四季度實際經濟增長速度低於摩根大通預測速度2%的風險。Mr. Feroli warns that the estimate 'seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically' but adds: 'We think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection.'
弗洛裏警告說，這個估計數字看起來似乎相當大，所以應當抱懷疑態度。但他也說：我們認爲近期出現的證據與這一預測相符。One clue: When the iPhone 4S became widely available last October, he writes, over half of the 0.8% increase in the nation's so-called core retail sales─which exclude autos, gasoline and building materials─came in the categories of online sales and computer and software sales. The two categories together had their largest monthly increase on record.
他寫道，另一條線索是，當去年10月份iPhone 4S廣泛上市銷售時，核心零售額（排除汽車、汽油和建材）0.8%的增幅中，超過一半的增幅來自網上銷售和電腦及軟件銷售。這兩個項目加起來的月增長幅度達到有記錄以來最高水平。He estimates the sales growth was due to the iPhone, which boosted overall GDP growth by a fifth to a 10th of a percentage point. The new iPhone launch will be even bigger than that, he says, making the latest estimate 'reasonable.'
費洛裏估計這種增長得益於iPhone，它使整個GDP增速提高了0.1至0.2個百分點。他說，新一代iPhone是分量更大的產品，所以最新的估計是“合理”的。In the final three months of last year, the U.S. economy expanded rapidly at a 4.1% annual rate, and then slowed sharply to a 2% pace in the first quarter of this year, and 1.7% in the second quarter.
去年最後三個月，美國經濟年化增長率達4.1%，今年一季度大幅減速至2%，二季度又降至1.7%。Many analysts have recently lowered their forecasts for economic growth in the second half of the year for reasons including the drought, higher oil prices and uncertainty about U.S. budget policies. Last week, the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers shaved its forecasts for economic growth to a 1.5% annual rate in the third-quarter and 1.4% in the fourth quarter, both down seven-tenths of a percentage point, largely due to the effect of the drought on farm output.
很多分析師最近下調了美國下半年經濟增長預期，原因包括旱災、油價上漲及美國預算政策的不確定性。預測公司Macroeconomic Advisers上週將第三季度年化經濟增長率預期下調至1.5%，將第四季度預期下調至1.4%，分別都降了0.7個百分點，理由主要是旱災對農業產量的影響。
