中國鐵礦石進口量料進一步上升

China's dependence on foreign iron ore will likely reach new records, industry officials said, which could help underpin slumping global prices and intensify Beijing's efforts to diversify sources of the important steelmaking ingredient.

業內人士稱，中國對海外鐵礦石的依賴可能會達到新的紀錄，這或許有助於支撐國際市場上不斷下滑的鐵礦石價格，並促使中國政府加大努力實現這種鋼鐵生產重要原料來源的多元化。

The forecast also foresees a rise in China's steel production despite government efforts to curb an industry widely seen as bloated and polluting. Beijing has pledged to curb industry suffering from overcapacity as part of its effort to restructure its economy, but the effort is politically difficult in places where such facilities are major employers.

上述預測也意味着中國將提高鋼鐵產量，儘管政府正努力遏制這個被普遍認爲臃腫且高污染行業的產能。作爲推動經濟轉型的措施之一，中國政府已承諾將整頓產能過剩的鋼鐵行業，但這一努力面臨較大的政治阻力。在中國，鋼鐵行業由大型企業所主導。

China is the world's biggest buyer of iron ore, accounting for 63% of global imports last year. This year, its iron-ore imports are likely to rise 6% to a record 870 million metric tons, Li Xinchuang, executive deputy secretary-general with the state-backed China Iron and Steel Association, said at an industry conference Tuesday.

中國是全球最大的鐵礦石進口國，中國去年進口的鐵礦石佔全球進口量的63%。中國鋼鐵工業協會(China Iron and Steel Association)常務副祕書長李新創週二在一個行業會議上表示，今年中國的鐵礦石進口量可能會增加6%，達到創紀錄的8.70億噸。

Steelmakers are buying ore even as inventory at port-side warehouses piles up to near-record levels and a slowdown weighs on the broader Chinese economy. 'A lot of mills are now importing ore in competition with each other,' Mr. Li said. 'It's like, if I see that you're bringing in ore, I have to bring in ore as well.'

雖然港口倉庫的鐵礦石庫存已接近紀錄高位，且中國總體經濟增速正在放緩，但鋼鐵企業仍在採購鐵礦石。李新創說，許多鋼鐵廠現在競相進口鐵礦石，就好比，我看到你在進口鐵礦石，那麼我也一定要進口。

Part of the appetite may derive from rising global ore supply, which is making prices more attractive. The world's top iron ore producers are set to produce an additional 126 million tons, or 14% more, iron ore by the end of this year compared with last year, according to analysts.

中國的部分需求可能源自全球鐵礦石供應增加，供應上升使鐵礦石價格變得更具吸引力。據分析師稱，全球大型鐵礦石生產商今年的鐵礦石產量料將比去年增加1.26億噸，同比增加14%。

For miners, Chinese demand could help ease that price slide. Iron-ore prices are down 21% from a year earlier to around $122 a ton this week for a benchmark grade of fine ore, due to slower global growth as well as oversupply, though they picked up slightly toward the end of 2013 on Chinese buying interest.

對礦商來說，中國的需求可能有助於緩和鐵礦石價格的跌勢。受全球經濟增長放緩以及供應過剩影響，本週基準品位的粉礦價格同比下跌了21%，至每噸122美元左右。2013年年底時，中國的購買興趣曾支撐鐵礦石價格小幅上漲。

China's cost of producing its own ore remains high at around 457 yuan ($74) a ton, compared with $30 to $60 a ton for imported ore, said Pan Guocheng, chief executive officer of China Hanking Holdings Ltd., a Chinese ore miner.

中國鐵礦石開採商中國罕王控股有限公司(China Hanking Holdings Ltd.)總裁潘國成表示，國內鐵礦石生產成本約爲每噸人民幣457元（約合74美元），依然較高，相比之下進口成本每噸僅爲30-60美元。

The disparity is driving China's longer-term dependence on foreign ore, which Mr. Pan expects will rise to 77% of its total ore consumption in 2016 from 72% last year. He projected China's ore imports in 2016 would reach 949 million tons.

這種成本差異提高了中國對海外鐵礦石的長期依賴性。潘國成預計到2016年，中國的鐵礦石進口占國內鐵礦石總消費量的比例將從去年的72%上升至77%。他預計2016年中國鐵礦石進口量將達到9.49億噸。

Sensitive to reducing its dependence on foreign suppliers, the country's top economic planners last month publicly urged Chinese steelmakers to continue shopping for ore assets abroad.

爲了降低對海外供應商的依賴，中國國家發展和改革委員會（簡稱：發改委）上個月公開敦促中國鋼鐵企業繼續收購海外鐵礦石資產。

Mr. Li said China is likely to see more iron-ore imports coming from China-owned projects in Africa, rather than its traditional suppliers in Brazil and Australia. The two countries--home to the world's largest global miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale SA--still supply a combined 70% of China's ore.

李新創說，中國可能會從自己擁有的非洲項目進口更多鐵礦石，而不是進口更多的巴西和澳大利亞傳統供應商的鐵礦石。巴西和澳大利亞擁有必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)、淡水河谷(Vale SA)等全球最大的鐵礦石生產企業，中國70%的鐵礦石供應來自這兩個國家。

Africa currently accounts for just 8% of China's supply--3% if longtime supplier South Africa is excluded--but Beijing has been building relations with at least 15 African nations, picking up small ore shipments last year from new suppliers such as Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Swaziland, customs data show.

中國目前從非洲進口的鐵礦石僅佔需求總量的8%，如果剔除長期供應國南非，這一比例將降至3%。不過中國正在與至少15個非洲國家建立聯繫，海關數據顯示，去年中國從幾內亞比紹、坦桑尼亞、烏干達、贊比亞和斯威士蘭等新供應國進口了少量鐵礦石。

Last year, London-listed African Minerals Ltd. said Tianjin Minerals & Equipment Group Corp., one of China's largest ore trading companies, will pay $990 million for a mine in Sierra Leone. China Minmetals Corp. has a six-year-old ore supply deal with Mauritania. State-owned Aluminum Corp. of China is jointly developing the large Simandou iron ore deposit with Rio Tinto in the West African nation of Guinea.

倫敦上市的非洲礦業公司African Minerals Ltd.去年表示，中國大型鐵礦石貿易公司天津物產集團有限公司(Tianjin Minerals & Equipment Group Corp.)將斥資9.9億美元收購塞拉利昂一個鐵礦。中國五礦集團公司(China Minmetals Corp.)與毛里塔尼亞簽署了一項爲期六年的鐵礦石供應協議。中國鋁業股份有限公司(Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd., 簡稱：中國鋁業)正在西非國家幾內亞與力拓聯合開發Simandou大型鐵礦石項目。

Mr. Li said China still has a strategic need to break free of the market dominance held by BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale. 'The speaking rights of global miners are still too strong,' he said, using a Chinese term that roughly means 'power.'

李新創稱，中國在戰略上仍有必要擺脫必和必拓、力拓和淡水河谷的壟斷，這些全球礦商的話語權仍舊太大。

Beijing is trying to wield tighter control over a smaller steel industry, to reduce its price volatility and environmental footprint. But output of crude steel, most of which go into China's construction, automotive and manufacturing sectors, is likely to reach a record 815 million metric tons, Mr. Li said.

中國正在努力加強對鋼鐵行業的控制，縮小行業規模，降低價格波動，減少環境污染。但李新創說，中國粗鋼產量有可能達到創紀錄的8.15億噸，其中大部分流向建築、汽車和製造行業。

'Overstimulus in the past has produced complications and a reform dilemma,' Mr. Li said. 'Overcapacity in the steel industry is larger than we imagined.'

他說：之前的過度刺激導致局面變得複雜，造成改革陷入困境。鋼鐵行業的產能過剩比我們想像得更加嚴重。

Still, the association says the pace of growth will slow to 3% this year from 7.5% last year. Demand from the construction of smaller cities and towns will likely underpin the growth in steel consumption, Mr. Li said.

不過中國鋼鐵工業協會表示，今年粗鋼產量的增長速度將從去年的7.5%放緩至3%。李新創說，小城鎮建築業的需求可能將支持鋼材消費量的增長。