中國勞動力市場進一步收緊

Job cuts in China appear to be on the rise, dimming prospects for a labor market that has been a resilient bright spot amid a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

在中國，裁員的數量正在增多，令勞動力市場的前景變得黯淡。在中國這個世界第二大經濟體的增長放緩之際，勞動力市場曾一直是一個抗衝擊能力很強的亮點。

The latest sign came on Thursday, when preliminary gauges of August factory activity and hiring showed continued weakness. The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dipped to 47.8 for August from July's 49.3, continuing a 10-month string of results below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

週四出現了最新跡象，衡量8月份工廠活動和僱傭情況的預覽值顯示勞動力市場持續低迷。8月份匯豐中國製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)從7月的49.3降至47.8，延續了10個月來低於50的走勢。PMI值高於50表示經濟擴張，低於50表示經濟收縮。

Behind weak activity: a slowdown in trade and shrinking real-estate investment. China's exports grew just 1% in the year to July, and exports from coastal hot spots such as the city of Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang contracted.

製造業活動低迷背後的原因在於，貿易增長放緩和房地產投資收縮。今年年初至7月份，中國出口僅增長了1%，上海、江蘇和浙江等沿海熱點省市的出口出現下滑。

Meanwhile, an August reading of 47.7 in the PMI survey's employment subindex, unchanged from July, shows firms shedding workers for the sixth consecutive month.

此外，8月份匯豐PMI分類指數中的就業指數爲47.7，與7月份持平，表明企業連續第六個月裁減人員。

The results follow sporadic reports of job cuts in some parts of the country.

這一結果發佈之前，有零星報道說中國一些地區削減了工作崗位。

'Anecdotal evidence suggests that an increasing number of coastal enterprises are laying off workers or closing down factories,' HSBC economists said in a note. 'It is time for Beijing to focus more squarely on the job market.'

匯豐的經濟學家在一份報告中說，有證據表明，越來越多的沿海企業開始裁員或關閉工廠；現在是北京更加密切地關注就業市場的時候了。

There are also some signs that labor unrest is on the rise. China Labour Bulletin, a nongovernmental organization that tracks collective action by Chinese workers, recorded 37 incidences of worker strikes and protests in July, roughly double the number in January, with more actions over unpaid wages.

也有一些跡象表明，罷工數量有所上升。專門追蹤中國工人集體行動的非政府組織中國勞工通訊(China Labour Bulletin)的記錄表明，7月份中國共發生了37次罷工和抗議活動，這一數字大約是今年1月份的兩倍。因討薪而發起的活動數量有所增加。

Third-quarter economic data so far suggest China's first-half slowdown is continuing, increasing pressure on policy makers to increase lending or boost government spending to rekindle growth.

三季度迄今爲止發佈的經濟數據表明，中國上半年經濟放緩的趨勢仍將繼續，這加大了決策者增加貸款數量或增加政府開支以重新拉動經濟增長的壓力。

Judging the true state of China's labor market is difficult. So far the weakness appears to be well short of the job losses that followed the global financial crisis, which saw as many as 20 million unemployed migrant workers head back to their home towns--a major factor in prompting a massive stimulus spending program by Beijing.

想要評估中國勞動力市場的真實狀況並不容易。到目前爲止失業人數遠低於全球金融危機過後的水平。金融危機過後，多達2,000萬失業農民工返回老家。這是促使中國政府當年推出大規模刺激性支出計劃的主要原因。

Other gauges suggest many firms are still hiring, albeit it at a slower pace.

從其它指標看，很多企業仍在招聘，不過速度已有所放慢。

At a government labor exchange in the center of Beijing on Thursday, there was little sign of anxiety among those looking for work. Lin Wei, a recent graduate from China University of Petroleum, was looking for a first job in civil engineering. 'I have only been looking for a week but there seems to be a number of opportunities,' she said.

週四在北京市中心一個由政府舉辦的招聘會上，幾乎看不出求職者有任何焦慮。中國石油大學(China University of Petroleum)的應屆畢業生林薇(音)想找一份與土木工程相關的工作，這將是她的第一份工作。她說，我只找了一個星期，但是似乎已經有一些工作機會了。

Song Guibo, a human-resources manager at Vanke Management Services, was at the exchange to fill vacancies for security guards, receptionists, and cleaners. His main complaint was a shortage of workers. 'We mainly employ migrant workers, and they can get higher wages in the provinces now, so not so many are coming to Beijing' said Mr. Song.

北京萬科物業服務有限公司(Beijing Vanke Property Service Co. Ltd.)的人力資源經理宋貴波在招聘會上招聘保安、接待員和清潔工。他最大的苦衷是招不到人。宋貴波說，我們主要招聘外來務工人員，而這些人在各個省份都能拿到比以往更高的工資，所以沒那麼多人來北京了。

The Chinese government publishes numbers on unemployment, which shows the rate at 4.1% in the second quarter, unchanged from the end of 2010. But economists widely regard the figure as unreliable, partly because it does not measure joblessness among migrant workers.

中國政府公佈的失業統計數據顯示，第二季度的失業率爲4.1%，與2010年底持平。但是經濟學家普遍認爲這個數字不可靠，部分原因是數據沒有反映外來務工人員的失業情況。

Analysts say that unemployment may lag changes in the economy. A new labor law, which came into force in 2008 and makes it costly to fire workers, and concern about a shortage of workers when growth picks up mean firms are reluctant to let workers go.

分析人士說，就業狀況可能會滯後於經濟形勢的變化。2008年生效的新勞動法提高了僱主解僱勞動者的成本，同時僱主也擔心如果經濟形勢好轉企業會出現人手不足的問題，這些因素意味着企業不願意讓員工離開。

A shoe-factory owner in the eastern city of Wenzhou who gave his name as Mr. Mao said that new labor regulations make it difficult for him to lay off any of his 800 workers. 'We don't fire them, they fire us,' he said, referring to a practice in which migrant workers hop between factories based on where orders and wages were strongest.

中國東部城市溫州的一位自稱姓毛的鞋廠廠主說，由於新勞動法的出臺，他很難解僱800名員工中的任何一個。他說，不是我炒他們，是他們炒我。他指的是外來務工人員經常跳槽到訂單更多和工資更高的工廠。

'The problem with the generation of workers born after the 1980s is that they are not able to eat bitterness,' he said. 'They are not as hard working as their parents.'

他說，80後這一代工人身上存在的問題是，他們不能吃苦。他們不像他們父母那一輩工作那麼努力。

Chen Shao, China analyst at Macquarie, says that factory owners he visited on a recent trip to Fujian were hanging on to workers to avoid losing face. 'They don't want to signal to competitors or creditors that they are in difficulty,' he said.

麥格理證券(Macquarie)中國分析師Chen Shao說，他最近去福建旅行期間見到的工廠廠主都儘可能地不讓工人跳槽，爲的是不讓自己丟面子。他們不想讓競爭者或債權人知道他們遇到了困難。

Guo Sheng, the chief executive officer of recruitment website , said that growth in the number of jobs advertised on the website had slowed sharply, from 77% growth in 2011 to 17% growth in 2012. 'The bad news is that growth in job opportunities has slowed, the good news is there is still growth,' he said.

招聘網站智聯招聘()的首席執行長郭盛說，其網站上所發佈工作機會的增速正在急劇放緩，從2011年的77%下降到了2012年的17%。他說，壞消息是工作機會的增長在放慢，好消息是工作機會仍在增多。

He also sees signs that the slowdown in China's growth was denting wage increases. 'At the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 wages were rising at around 15% to 20% a year,' he said. 'From the second quarter we are seeing slowing growth and falling inflation reducing wage increases.'

郭盛還看到了中國經濟增速放緩影響工資增長的跡象。他說，2011年末和2012年初，勞動者工資水平在以每年15%到20%左右的速度增長。從今年第二季度開始，我們看到，經濟增速放緩和通脹水平下降正在導致工資增長速度降低。