黃金重拾漲勢 人氣回暖

Investors are buying gold again.

投資者們又開始買入黃金了。

Gold is up 11% this year, and wagers on rising prices are at a four-month high in the futures market. This month, investors were net buyers of SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest exchange-traded fund that buys gold, for the first time since December 2012.

今年以來金價累計漲幅已達11%，黃金期貨價格處於四個月高位。全球最大黃金交易所交易基金(ETF) SPDR Gold Shares本月出現了自2012年12月以來的首次資金 流入。

Gold has a long way to go to recover from last year's rout, the metal's worst annual performance in more than three decades. Gold futures ended Thursday at $1,331.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up slightly for the day but down 16% from a year ago.

在過去的2013年，黃金走出了30多年來的最差行情，黃金要徹底收復去年的失地仍有很長的路要走。週四紐約商品期貨交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) Comex分部的黃金期貨收盤價報每盎司1,331.60美元，較前日微漲，但和一年前相比仍下跌了16%。

Some money managers are betting that the market hit bottom at the end of 2013. Risky assets that drew cash away from gold last year, including emerging-market stocks and bonds, are looking less appealing. Gold also is regaining its role as a hedge against inflation as some investors question the Federal Reserve's commitment to ending its economic stimulus.

一些基金經理押注黃金市場在2013年末已經觸底。曾在去年吸引資金流出黃金市場的風險資產（包括新興市場的股票和債券）現如今已不具昔日魅力。而隨着一些投資者懷疑美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱：美聯儲)能否按期結束刺激計劃，黃金對衝通脹風險的重要意義也就再度凸顯出來。

'A reset needed to happen in gold,' said Michael Tiedemann, who manages $8.5 billion at Tiedemann Wealth Management in New York.

在紐約Tiedemann Wealth Management管理着85億美元資產的蒂德曼(Michael Tiedemann)認爲，黃金市場的盤整是必要的。

Like many investors, Mr. Tiedemann sold gold in December to lock in losses for tax purposes. However, he started buying SPDR Gold Shares to restore those positions in January and is recommending that new clients hold gold. He said he sees gold as a store of value should the Fed's stimulus policies trigger higher inflation or a weaker dollar.

和許多投資者一樣，蒂德曼出於對稅務因素的考量在去年12月拋售黃金以鎖定損失。然而今年1月，他開始買入SPDR Gold Shares以增補倉位，並建議其新客戶持有黃金。他說，如果美聯儲的經濟刺激政策會推高通脹水平或拉低美元匯率的話，黃金可被用作爲一種儲值手段。

SPDR Gold Shares, known by its ticker symbol GLD, has added 10.54 metric tons to its gold holdings this month through Wednesday, boosting its total to 803.7 tons. Net inflows for the year total $255 million. Still, February's rise is dwarfed by last year's decline of 552.6 tons.

在本月截至週三，SPDR Gold Shares（代碼GLD）的黃金持有量已增加10.54噸，總量達到803.7噸，今年 流入資金總額達2.55億美元。不過2月的這一增長仍不不足以彌補去年減少的552.6噸黃金持有量。

Investors have had plenty of reason to buy gold in the past few months. Doubts about the financial stability of Turkey and Argentina, and fears of a default by Ukraine more recently, prompted some investors to seek safety in gold alongside the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.

過去的幾個月讓投資者有充足的理由來買入黃金。土耳其和阿根廷金融穩定性令人懷疑，加上最近擔心烏克蘭違約，這些都促使一些投資者投向黃金、美元以及美國國債等資產以期避險。

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is underperforming, with indicators for employment, consumer confidence and manufacturing coming in below expectations in recent weeks.

與此同時美國經濟亦表現欠佳，近幾周的就業數據、消費者信心指數以及製造業指數均不及預期。

'Gold has been playing its role as a great diversifier,' said Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments LLC in Palo Alto, Calif., which has $400 million under management. 'U.S. data has raised some doubts about the economy's performance, and people are choosing to buy gold as a hedge. This rally is for real.'

位於加州帕洛阿爾託的投資諮詢公司Merk Investments LLC的負責人默克(Axel Merk)說，黃金一直是一種實現分散化投資的好方法。該公司管理着4億美元資產。他說，美國的數據讓人對該國經濟的表現產生了一些懷疑，人們開始選擇購買黃金作爲避險手段。這輪漲勢是真實的。

Mr. Merk currently has 15.7% of his fund's assets in gold, up from 8.4% this time last year.

默克的基金目前有15.7%的資產爲黃金，去年同期爲8.4%。

Gold rose Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the central bank might consider a pause in its reduction of bond buying if weakness in the economy persists.

美聯儲主席耶倫(Janet Yellen)曾說，如果經濟形勢持續低迷，美聯儲可能考慮暫停縮減購債規模。受耶倫此話的推動，金價週四上漲。

As the Fed shrinks the amount of money it pumps into the economy every month, interest rates are expected to rise, making the dollar more attractive and reducing the allure of alternatives such as gold. Much of gold's fall in 2013 came after the Fed began signaling early in the year it was considering an end to bond purchases.

隨着美聯儲減少每個月向經濟中注入的資金額，預計利率將上升，美元會變得更有吸引力，而黃金等替代性投資的吸引力將減弱。2013年金價下跌的主要原因就在於美聯儲在年初時開始暗示正在考慮終止購債計劃。

To be sure, most investors believe the Fed would need to see several more months of weak data to slow the cuts to its asset-purchase program. If the Fed stays on course, bond yields are likely to rise, putting downward pressure on gold, which yields nothing, said Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment officer for portfolio strategies at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, which has $1.9 trillion in assets under management.

誠然，大部分投資者認爲，還需再有幾個月的疲弱數據，美聯儲纔會放緩資產購買計劃的縮減。美林財富管理(Merrill Lynch Wealth Management)負責投資組合策略的首席投資長巴特爾斯(Mary Ann Bartels)說，如果美聯儲繼續縮減購債，債券收益率可能會上升，給金價帶來下行壓力，黃金將沒有分文的回報。該公司管理着1.9萬億美元資產。

'If you're expecting gold to earn a return, we're asking clients to reconsider owning it,' she said. Ms. Bartels expects gold prices to end the year at $1,100 an ounce, a level unseen since April 2010.

她說，如果你指望在黃金投資上獲得回報，那麼請重新考慮是否要持有黃金。她預計年底金價將跌至每盎司1,100美元，創2010年4月以來的最低水平。

Still, there are plenty of investors looking for safe places to park their cash, and gold is one of the cheapest forms of protection, says William Larkin, portfolio manager with Cabot Wealth Management Inc., in Salem, Mass., with $550 million under management.

位於馬薩諸塞州塞勒姆的投資諮詢公司Cabot Wealth Management Inc.的投資組合經理拉金(William Larkin)說，儘管如此，有很多投資者在尋找安全的地方投資他們的現金，而黃金是最便宜的保護形式之一。該公司管理着5.5億美元資產。

'Gold had a miserable 2013--this thing has been taken out to the woodshed, so I see some value here,' Mr. Larkin said. He has been buying shares of SPDR Gold Shares over the past two months.

拉金說，黃金經過了2013年痛苦的一年，金價暴跌，所以我認爲現在黃金有一定的投資價值。過去兩個月，他一直在買進SPDR Gold Shares。