好萊塢夏季票房 還是得指望女觀衆

Heading into the all-important summer moviegoing season, two converging box-office trends are startling studios: Women are driving ticket sales to a degree rarely, if ever, seen before, while young men — long Hollywood’s most coveted audience — are relatively AWOL.

在至關重要的夏日觀影季即將到來之際，兩股票房潮流的匯聚讓電影公司感到驚訝：女觀衆對票房的推動達到前所未有的高度，而男性青少年觀衆卻相對減少了，長期以來他們是好萊塢最看重的觀衆。

With the release of “The Divergent Series: Insurgent” over the weekend, women have delivered the three biggest live-action openings of the year. The audience for “Insurgent,” which took in an estimated $54 million from Friday to Sunday, was 60 percent female. The opening-weekend crowd for “Fifty Shades of Grey” was 67 percent female, and women made up 66 percent of the audience for “Cinderella.”

本年度最轟動的三次真人電影上映週末都是由女性觀衆製造的，上週末的《反叛者》(The Divergent Series: Insurgent)是最新的一次。《反叛者》從週五到週日約賺得5400萬美元票房，觀衆中有60%是女性。《五十度灰》(Fifty Shades of Grey)上映那個週末的觀衆中有67%是女性；《灰姑娘》(Cinderella)的觀衆中有66%是女性。

It would be easier to dismiss those percentages as a fluke — three big female-oriented movies just happened to arrive in proximity — if a parade of movies aimed at young men had not bombed over the same period. Among the carnage: “Jupiter Ascending,” “Seventh Son,” “Hot Tub Time Machine 2,” “Chappie” and, over the weekend, Sean Penn’s “The Gunman.”

人們很可能會將熱門電影中女性觀衆的高比例視爲偶然現象，說這是因爲三部以女性爲目標觀衆的大製作影片碰巧接連上映，但在同一時期，一大堆以青少年男性爲目標觀衆的電影卻遭遇滑鐵盧，包括《木星上行》(Jupiter Ascending)、《第七子：降魔之戰》(Seventh Son)、《熱浴盆時光機2》(Hot Tub Time Machine 2)、《超能查派》(Chappie)以及上週末肖恩·潘(Sean Penn)的《臥底槍手》(The Gunman)。

The shift has been noticeable enough to prompt movie executives and producers to ruminate about the causes and consider whether the big film factories should recalibrate their assembly lines. Counting on the stability of young men, studios have nearly 30 superhero movies on the way by the end of 2015, each costing well over $100 million to make. But young men are more easily distracted by other forms of entertainment, and women may now be the more reliable opening-weekend audience.

這種變化已經非常明顯，足以促使電影公司執行官和製作人們思考它背後的原因，考慮大型電影公司是否應該重新安排生產線。電影公司把賭注壓在年輕男觀衆的穩定性上，到2015年底將有近30部超級英雄大片上映，每一部的製作費都遠在一億美元之上。但是年輕男人更容易被其他娛樂方式吸引，而女性現在可能是更可靠的上映週末(opening-weekend)觀衆。

“You can never put your finger on it entirely, but you have to ask the questions,” said Dan Fellman, president of domestic distribution at Warner Bros. “Is this just the cyclical nature of the movie business? Or does it point to a more serious shift in habits?”

“你永遠也不可能完全弄清原因，但你必須開始思考，”華納兄弟影業(Warner Bros)的國內發行總監丹·費爾曼(Dan Fellman)說，“這只是電影業的自然週期，還是反映出更重大的習慣變化？”

The uncertainty comes as Hollywood tries to bounce back from a terrible 2014. Admissions fell 6 percent at North American theaters last year, to 1.27 billion, compared with the previous year; ticket sales declined 5 percent, to $10.4 billion. Ticket sales are up about 4 percent so far in 2015, but the high-risk summer months — packed with male-centric movies like “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “Terminator: Genisys” and “Ant-Man” — usually set the pace for the year.

這種不確定性出現之際，正值好萊塢努力從糟糕的2014年重振旗鼓之時。去年，北美的觀影人次與前年相比下跌6%，跌至12.7億人次；票房銷售下跌5%，跌至104億美元。2015年到目前爲止，票房銷售增長了約4%，但是高風險的夏季通常會決定一年的總體形勢，因爲夏季擠滿了以男性觀衆爲主的電影，比如《瘋狂的麥克斯4：狂暴之路》(Mad Max: Fury Road)、《終結者：創世紀》(Terminator: Genisys)和《蟻人》(Ant-Man)。

Studios awoke to the power of female ticket buyers in 2008, when the “Twilight” action romances became a global phenomenon. Since then, women have turned films like “The Hunger Games,” “Bridesmaids” and “Frozen” into smash hits. But the muscle of women at the multiplex has recently gone “from sporadic to continuous,” said Paul Dergarabedian, a senior analyst at Rentrak, which tracks box-office data.

2008年，電影公司開始領悟到女性購票者的力量，那一年，刺激的愛情片《暮光之城》(Twilight)在全球受到熱捧。從那以後，女性觀衆使得《飢餓遊戲》(The Hunger Games)、《伴娘》(Bridesmaids)和《冰雪奇緣》(Frozen)等影片轟動一時。但是，票房數據跟蹤公司Rentrak的高級分析師保羅·德加拉貝迪安(Paul Dergarabedian)說，最近，女性在影院的影響力“由零散性變爲持續性”。

Young men used to be Hollywood’s most reliable audience, in part because they tended to be less discriminating than women. “No story? No problem! As long as people got blown up, guys showed up,” Mr. Dergarabedian said.

過去，年輕男人是好萊塢最可靠的觀衆，部分原因是他們不像女人那麼挑剔。“沒有故事？沒關係！只要有人被炸飛、硬漢能現身就行，”德加拉貝迪安說。

But studio research executives say young men are the most likely to be lured by alternative activities like video games, sports and YouTube comedy clips. Research indicates that teenage boys in particular do not want to be told when and where they have to consume entertainment, which makes herding them into a movie theater difficult.

不過，電影公司的調查主管們說，年輕男人最可能被其他娛樂活動吸引，比如電子遊戲、運動或YouTube上的搞笑視頻。調查表明，十幾歲的男孩尤其不喜歡在確定的時間和地點進行娛樂，因此把他們聚到影院比較困難。

In contrast, “teenage girls still seem to want the experience of going to the movies as a group,” said Terry Press, president of CBS Films, which recently hit specialty film pay dirt with “The DUFF,” an $8 million comedy about a high school pecking order that is closing in on $35 million in ticket sales, overwhelmingly because of female moviegoers.

相比之下，“十幾歲的女孩似乎依然喜歡一起去看電影的感覺，”CBS電影公司總裁特里·普雷斯(Terry Press)說。最近，該公司憑藉特色影片《醜女也有春天》(The DUFF)大賺一筆。這部喜劇片講述的是高中裏的社會等級，成本爲800萬美元，票房收入爲3500萬美元，主要來自女性觀衆。

The recent box-office gyrations also expose a flaw in studio strategy, analysts say. At a time when so many movies turn themselves inside out trying to attract everyone (a plan that could be summed up as “wide and shallow” in industry parlance), it is clearly possible to fill a big tent by picking a couple of demographics, in particular underserved ones, and superserving them (“narrow and deep”).

分析師們稱，最近的票房波動也暴露出電影公司策略的一個缺點。許多電影徹底顛覆自己，努力吸引所有人（行話說就是“廣泛而膚淺”）。與此同時，選擇明確的目標觀衆，特別是那些沒有得到足夠服務的人們，對他們給予特別優待（“細化而深刻”），顯然也能收穫成果。

“Cinderella,” for instance, was not aimed at everyone. But by being a perfect version of something narrower — a costume romance aimed at mothers and girls — “Cinderella” has sold a stout $122 million in tickets in the United States and Canada in just two weeks. (“Empire,” aimed initially at often-ignored African-American viewers, offers a corollary example from television.)

一個極佳的例子是古裝愛情劇《灰姑娘》，它的受衆較窄，不是面向所有人，而是針對母親和女孩。它的北美票房僅在兩週內就達到1.22億美元。大獲成功的《嘻哈帝國》(Empire)最初針對的是經常被忽視的非裔美國觀衆，是電視圈的一個類似成功案例。

“What has been happening at the box office sends a message loud and clear that you don’t need four quadrants to be a massive hit,” said Phil Contrino, chief analyst at . In movie jargon, a four-quadrant movie is one that attracts men and women, young and old; Hollywood considers anyone over 25 to be old.

“票房情況發出了一個清晰明確的信號，不是隻有‘四象限影片’(four quadrants)才能成爲熱門影片，”網站的首席分析師菲爾·孔特里諾(Phil Contrino)說。在電影術語中，“四象限電影”指的是吸引男女老幼的影片——好萊塢把所有25歲以上的人都歸入“老”的類別。

When it comes to the male-female divide, the recent overreliance by studios on visual effects may play a role. The bar for visual effects has been raised so high, experts say, that nothing less than a prolonged smackdown between a raging Hulk and a supersize Iron Man has much hope of turning male heads.

提到男女區別，近些年電影公司對視覺效果的過分依賴可能也產生了一些影響。專家們說，如今觀衆對視覺效果的要求很高，恐怕只有憤怒的綠巨人(Hulk)和超大型鋼鐵俠之間的長時間打鬥才能引起男人們的強烈興趣。

“You used to be able to go to movies and see something that you never saw before — a giant shark, dinosaurs,” said Allison Shearmur, a producer of “Cinderella” and a former senior executive at Lionsgate, Paramount and Universal. “But spectacular visual effects have become routine.”

“過去，你走進電影院，有可能看到之前從沒見過的東西——巨大的鯊魚、恐龍，”《灰姑娘》的製作人艾莉森·什耶默(Allison Shearmur)說。她曾擔任獅門電影公司(Lionsgate)、派拉蒙影業(Paramount)和環球影業(Universal)的高級執行官。“但是壯觀的視覺效果已成爲常規。”

Ms. Shearmur continued: “So what does that mean? It means that we’ve got to make more movies that have a compelling core story. The audience still comes when the story is strong, when we can laugh or cry or be afraid in a theater together.”

什耶默接着說道：“所以那意味着什麼？那意味着，我們必須拍出更多具有精彩的核心故事的影片。如果故事很有趣，觀衆們還會去看，因爲他們可以在影院裏一起大笑、大哭或者恐懼。”

Mr. Fellman of Warner Bros. predicted that boys would return en masse for coming PG-13 event movies like “Furious 7” and “The Avengers: Age of Ultron.”

華納兄弟影業的費爾曼預計，男孩子們會一起去影院觀看即將上映的PG-13級別的電影，比如《速度與激情7》(Furious 7)和《復仇者聯盟2：奧創紀元》(The Avengers: Age of Ultron)。

“Outside of ‘American Sniper,’ which started older and got younger, and ‘Kingsman: The Secret Service,’ there has been a noticeable lack of young men,” Mr. Fellman said. “But a lot of the so-called guy movies recently have been rated R, and you lose a lot of tweeners that way,” he noted.

“除了《美國狙擊手》（American Sniper，它本來是針對年紀較大的觀衆，後來轉向年輕觀衆）和《王牌特工：特工學院》(Kingsman: The Secret Service)，現在明顯缺乏針對年輕男子的影片，”費爾曼說，“但是很多所謂的硬漢片最近都被評爲R級，因此失去了很多青少年觀衆。”

Warner will add another R-rated comedy to the mix on Friday with “Get Hard,” which has been generating solid interest from men in prerelease surveys.

週五，華納公司將在自己的上映組合計劃中加入另一部R級喜劇片——《獄前教育》(Get Hard)。這部影片在預映調查中引起了男人們的強烈興趣。

But the success of Hollywood’s summer box office may well rest with women. Nestled among the superheroes and action movies are an unusually large number of pictures aimed at a female audience, including “Pitch Perfect 2,” an estrogen-heavy musical comedy; “Spy,” an action comedy starring Melissa McCarthy; “Pan,” a splashy adaptation of the Peter Pan story; and the male stripper sequel “Magic Mike XXL.”

但是好萊塢夏季票房的成功可能主要在很大程度上也要看女人。在超級英雄大片和動作影片中通常會夾雜着很多針對女性觀衆的影片，包括女性色彩濃郁的音樂喜劇片《完美音調2》(Pitch Perfect 2)；梅利莎·麥卡錫(Melissa McCarthy)主演的動作喜劇片《密探》(Spy)；引人注目的改編影片《彼得·潘》(Pan)；以及關於脫衣舞男的後續影片《魔力麥克2》(Magic Mike XXL)。

“The whole notion of the summer blockbuster has always been built around young men,” Mr. Dergarabedian said. “I think we’re about to see that change. The clout and importance of the female audience has never been bigger.”

“夏季大片的概念一直是以青少年男觀衆爲基礎，”德加拉貝迪安說，“我覺得我們就要看到變化了。女性觀衆的勢力和重要性從未如此之大。”