摩根大通預測:英格蘭將奪本屆世界盃冠軍
England will finally win the World Cup after 44 years of pain if City boffins are to be believed.
European champions Spain will be runners-up with the Netherlands winning the third place play-off, according to J.P. Morgan quantitative analysts who issued their findings on Tuesday ahead of the World Cup (June 11-July 11) kick-off.
They predict world number one team Brazil will fall short in South Africa because of a tougher route through to the final than their main rivals.
The quantitative analysts at an used information such as FIFA ranking, historical results and its an Team Strength Indicator to come up with a mathematical model to predict match results, they explained.
However, they warned "this report should be taken with a pinch of salt" and that it is an exercise to "light-heartedly explain quantitative techniques and demystify the typical quant framework."
The analysts usually use these kind of mathematical models to help predict stock market winners with millions of dollars hanging on their calculations.
England last won football's biggest prize in 1966 when the Beatles topped the charts with Yellow Submarine and Harold Wilson was Prime Minister.
In the latest official FIFA rankings, England were in eighth position and Spain were second.
英國的金融業分析人士日前做出預測，英格蘭足球隊在歷經44年的磨難後，將奪本屆世界盃的冠軍。
今年的世界盃足球賽將於6月11日至7月11日舉行。摩根大通公司的數量分析專家於本週二發佈預測結果稱，歐洲冠軍西班牙隊將獲得本屆世界盃的亞軍，荷蘭隊將獲季軍。
據預測，世界排名第一的巴西隊在南非世界盃上恐怕無緣冠軍，因爲與他們的主要競爭對手相比，巴西隊晉級決賽的道路更爲艱難。
據介紹，摩根大通公司的數量分析專家通過分析國際足聯排名、歷史戰績以及摩根大通球隊實力指數等信息，得出了一個用來預測比賽結果的數學模型。
但他們同時提醒稱，“大家應帶有保留地看待這一預測”，這是“用通俗的方式解釋數量分析法，讓數量分析框架淺顯化”的一次嘗試。
分析人士通常使用這類數學模型來幫助預測股市贏家，他們的計算結果常常關係到數百萬美元的資金運作。
英格蘭隊上一次捧走大力神杯還是在1966年。當年，披頭士樂隊的專輯《黃色潛水艇》橫掃各音樂排行榜，英國的當政首相還是哈羅德•威爾遜。
在國際足聯最新排名中，英格蘭隊位居第八，西班牙隊位居第二。
Vocabulary:
City: 倫敦最古老的金融商務中心，倫敦商業區，一般稱爲the City。
boffin: a scientist or technical expert（研究員）
the third place play-off：爭奪第三名的比賽
with a pinch of salt：有保留地
demystify:使非神祕化
