奧地利數學家算出世界盃冠軍 曾成功預測西班牙捧杯
Austrian mathematicians have revealed why you should put your money on either Brazil or Germany for the 2018 World Cup.
奧地利數學家解釋了本屆世界盃期間大家應該投注給巴西和德國的原因。The two teams are neck-and-neck favourites to win the tournament, according to a set of millions of calculations based on hundreds of betting odds.
他們根據數百萬次基於大量投注賠率的計算髮現，這兩支球隊都是奪冠大熱。Experts said while Brazil have a 16.6 percent probability of winning the title, defending world champions Germany are close behind with a 15.8 percent chance.
專家表示，巴西隊捧杯機率爲16.6%，衛冕冠軍德國隊緊隨其後，捧杯機率爲15.8%。
The research team has successfully predicted several tournament outcomes in the past, among them the correct world champions Spain in the 2010 World Cup and three out of four semi-finalists in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
該研究小組成功預測過幾次盃賽結果，包括正確預測了2010年世界盃冠軍西班牙隊和2014年巴西世界盃三支進入半決賽的球隊。Researchers at the University of Innsbruck in Austria combined the odds of 26 online bookmakers and betting exchanges with a complex set of statistical models.
奧地利因斯布魯克大學的研究人員運用一套複雜的統計模型，對26個網上賭注經紀人和博彩交易所的投注賠率進行了綜合統計。Using these calculations to simulate all possible games and results, Brazil and Germany came out on top more than all other teams.
研究人員利用這些計算模擬所有可能的比賽及其結果。巴西和德國奪冠的可能性位居其他所有球隊之上。‘The most likely final with a probability of 5.5 percent is also a match between these two teams, giving Brazil the chance to make up for the dramatic semi-final of 2014,’ study coauthor Professor Achim Zeileis said.
研究合著者阿奇姆-澤勒斯教授說：“決賽最有可能在巴西隊和德國隊之間展開（5.5%），讓巴西隊有機會彌補2014年世界盃半決賽遭遇德國隊時的慘敗（譯者注：這場比賽中巴西隊1-7慘敗德國隊）。”Though a final between the two seems likely, the models were unable to predict which of the teams would lift the trophy.
儘管決賽有可能在巴西隊和德國隊之間展開，但模型無法預測出誰將捧起大力神杯。Brazil’s probability of winning the final against Germany is just 50.6 percent, leaving the defending champions with a 49.4 percent chance in the final.
巴西隊戰勝德國隊的機率是50.6%，德國隊戰勝巴西隊機率則爲49.4%。Behind the two top favourites Germany and Brazil there were two other teams with a good chance of winning: Spain (12.5 percent) and France (12.1 percent).
奪冠機率位居巴西隊和德國隊之後的是另外兩支球隊：西班牙隊（12.5%）和法國隊（12.1%）。The most likely semi-final pairings was therefore Brazil vs. France at 9.4 percent and Germany vs. Spain at 9.2 percent.
因此最有可能出現的半決賽對陣局勢是：巴西隊對法國隊（9.4%），德國隊對西班牙隊（9.2%）。Both Brazil and Germany were deemed the more likely winners of these matches.
這兩場比賽中，巴西隊和德國隊獲勝機率都更大。
England was picked out as the seventh most likely team to win, with a probability of 4.9 percent.
英格蘭隊在獲勝機率榜單中排名第七（4.9%）。The bookmakers’ odds saw the host country Russia as the twelfth-best team overall.
根據賠率計算，東道主俄羅斯隊獲勝機率排在第12位。While the probability that Russia will reach the quarter-finals was an impressive 28.9 percent, their chances of winning the tournament were just 2.1 percent.
儘管俄羅斯隊打進四分之一決賽的機率高達28.9%，但捧杯機率僅有2.1%。‘Naturally, the bookmakers want to earn money with their betting offers, and hence they set their odds as realistically as possible, taking into account not only historical data but also the tournament draw and short-term events such as injured players,’ Professor Zeileis said.
澤勒斯教授說：“博彩業者當然想從下注中賺錢，因此他們把賠率設置得儘可能接近實際。他們不僅考慮了歷史數據，還考慮了比賽抽籤和短期事件，比如傷病運動員的影響。”1) Brazil – 16.6%
巴西– 16.6%2) Germany – 15.8%
德國– 15.8%3) Spain – 12.5%
西班牙– 12.5%4) France – 12.1%
法國– 12.1%5) Argentina – 8.4%
阿根廷– 8.4%6) Belgium – 7.3%
比利時– 7.3%7) England – 4.9%
英格蘭– 4.9%8) Portugal – 3.4%
葡萄牙– 3.4%9) Uruguay – 2.7%
烏拉圭– 2.7%10) Croatia – 2.5%
克羅地亞– 2.5%11) Colombia – 2.2%
哥倫比亞– 2.2%12) Russia – 2.1%
俄羅斯– 2.1%13) Poland – 1.5%
波蘭– 1.5%14) Denmark – 0.9%
丹麥– 0.9%15) Mexico – 0.8%
墨西哥– 0.8%16) Switzerland – 0.8%
瑞士– 0.8%17) Sweden – 0.6%
瑞典– 0.6%18) Egypt – 0.5%
埃及– 0.5%19) Serbia – 0.5%
塞爾維亞– 0.5%20) Senegal – 0.5%
塞內加爾– 0.5%21) Peru – 0.4%
祕魯– 0.4%22) Nigeria – 0.4%
尼日利亞– 0.4%23) Iceland – 0.4%
冰島– 0.4%24) Japan – 0.3%
日本– 0.3%25) Australia – 0.2%
澳大利亞– 0.2%26) Morocco – 0.2%
摩洛哥– 0.2%27) Costa Rica – 0.2%
哥斯達黎加– 0.2%28) South Korea – 0.2%
韓國– 0.2%29) Iran – 0.2%
伊朗– 0.2%30) Tunisia – 0.1%
突尼斯– 0.1%31) Saudi Arabia – 0.1%
沙特阿拉伯– 0.1%32) Panama – 0.1%
巴拿馬– 0.1%
