中國放棄玉米價格支持政策

The Chinese government could face paper losses of more than $10bn on its state-owned corn reserves as it shakes up its agricultural support policy.

隨着中國政府調整農業支持政策，其國有玉米儲備可能面臨逾100億美元的賬面損失。

Beijing last month announced that it would end its price support policy in an attempt to reduce its mounting corn stockpile, starting with the upcoming harvest this year.

北京方面上月宣佈，將從今年收穫季開始結束價格支持政策，此舉旨在削減日益增加的玉米庫存。

“The government has now abandoned price support policies for all commodities except wheat and rice,” confirmed the Beijing bureau of the US Department Agriculture in a report released on Thursday.

在週四發佈的一份報告中，美國農業部(USDA)北京農業事務處證實：“中國政府現已放棄了除小麥和大米以外所有大宗商品的價格支持政策。”

The Chinese government’s announcement led to a 10 per cent fall in the new crop corn price traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, said the USDA report.

美國農業部的報告稱，中國政府的聲明導致在大連商品交易所(Dalian Commodity exchange)交易的新玉米價格下跌了10%。

“A Rmb600 per tonne write down on corn stocks would result in a paper loss of over $10bn,” it said, adding that the total cost was likely to be higher as the figure did not take into account storage costs.

它表示：“玉米庫存每噸減值600元人民幣將導致逾100億美元的賬面虧損。”報告補充稱，總成本可能更高，因爲該數據沒有考慮倉儲成本。

“Some corn stocks may have lost their entire value as they are too deteriorated to sell,” it said.

它表示：“一些玉米庫存可能喪失全部價值，因爲它們變質得太厲害，根本賣不出去。”

Beijing’s agricultural support policy has led to mounting surpluses, while cheap imports have also led to domestic corn being left unconsumed. Huge state inventories as well as falling productivity and environmental deterioration were forcing China to overhaul its policy, said the USDA.

中國的農業支持政策導致玉米日益過剩，同時廉價進口也導致國產玉米沒有被消費掉。美國農業部表示，龐大的政府庫存以及生產率不斷下降和環境惡化，正迫使中國調整其政策。

The report comes after international agricultural trade bosses this week said that China could turn to exports to reduce its corn stocks.

該報告發布之前，國際農產品貿易機構的掌門人本週紛紛表示，中國可能轉向出口以削減其玉米庫存。

The head of Cargill’s grain trading said earlier this week at the FT Commodities Global Summit that there was a “fifty-fifty” chance of China exporting some of its inventories.

嘉吉(Cargill)的穀物貿易主管本週早些時候在英國《金融時報》全球大宗商品峯會(FT Commodities Global Summit)上表示，中國有“五成”的可能性出口一部分庫存。

Gert-Jan van den Akker, president of Cargill’s agricultural supply chain, said: “[The Chinese] don’t need to export that through corn exports itself” — damaged corn could also be turned into industrial starch or ethanol before being sold, he added.

嘉吉農業供應鏈總裁格特-簡•範登奧凱爾(Gert-Jan van den Akker)表示：“（中國人）不需要通過玉米本身出口而出口。”他補充稱，變質玉米也可以先製成工業澱粉或者乙醇，然後再銷售。

“China has a huge starch industry,” he said.

他說：“中國擁有龐大的澱粉工業。”

China would be breaching WTO rules by selling its subsidised corn overseas.

如果中國向海外銷售其接受補貼的玉米，將違反世貿組織(WTO)規則。

However, it could wait until this year’s harvest, which would not be supported by the state, to export its corn, said another agricultural trader.

然而，另一位農業貿易商表示，中國可以等到今年收穫之後再出口玉米，今年收穫的玉米價格將不會受到政府的支持。

The country is seen to hold about 100m tonnes of corn in its grain reserves. The last time the country exported significant amounts internationally was in the 2006-07 crop year, when it sold more than 5m tonnes.

外界認爲中國的穀物儲備中有大約1億噸的玉米。上次中國大量出口是在2006-07作物年度，當時它銷售了逾500萬噸。

The USDA Beijing bureau forecast overall corn acreage to fall 3 per cent, although it added that the corn planting season had already begun.

美國農業部北京農業事務處預計中國整體玉米種植面積下降3%，不過它補充稱，玉米種植季已經開始。

“According to contacts in north-east China, most farmers have already made planting decisions and cannot easily change plans based on the cancellation of the temporary reserve programme,” it added.

它接着說道：“中國東北的消息人士稱，大多數農民已經做出了種植決定，不可能因爲臨時收儲項目取消而輕易改變計劃。”