7月份中國官方PMI降至49.9

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by the National Bureau of Statistics fell to 49.9 in June, below the 50-point line delineating growth from contraction for the first time in four months. That was just a hair below a consensus forecast from economists of 50 that would have meant activity neither rose nor fell compared to the previous month.

據中國國家統計局(NBS)公佈數據，7月製造業採購經理指數(PMI)降至49.9，四個月來首次落於榮枯線以下。該數據微微低於經濟學家此前預計的50(意味着製造業活動較上一月既沒有上升也沒下降)。

In an explanatory note the bureau suggested the primary factor behind the fall was a particularly strong El Nino effect, pointing to heavy rains and flooding in most of China’s provinces, particularly those along the Yangtze River Basin, which had impacted production (down 0.4 percentage points to 52.1) and transportation, among other things. But it also acknowledged a marked backslide in market demand.

中國國家統計局在數據解讀中表示，本月回落主要原因是受超強厄爾尼諾現象影響，中國大部分地區，特別是長江流域遭遇強降雨及洪澇災害，生產及運輸等受到影響，本月生產指數回落0.4個百分點，至52.1。但該機構也承認市場需求明顯放緩。

Economic stimulus continued to chiefly benefit large-scale enterprises, where PMI came in at 51.2, up 0.2 percentage points from June. Mid-sized and smaller enterprises both saw activity contract more severely with readings of 48.9 and 46.9 for the period respectively.

經濟刺激政策的受益者仍主要爲大型企業，其PMI指數爲51.2，比6月份上升0.2個百分點；中、小型企業PMI指數分別爲48.9和46.9，顯示其活動收縮加重。

The official non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services but also includes some old-growth industries such as construction, came in at 53.9 in June, climbing further above the 50-point line.

7月官方非製造業PMI爲53.9，在榮枯線之上進一步攀升。非製造業PMI不僅涵蓋服務業，還包括建築業等一些傳統增長行業。

A sub-index for business activity in the services industry rose 0.4 percentage points from June to 52.6, which the bureau attributed to marked growth in rail and air logistics, telecommunications, information and technology, foreign exchange finance, capital market services, and leasing and business services.

服務業商務活動指數比6月上升0.4個百分點，達到52.6，中國國家統計局認爲這是由於鐵路和航空物流、電信、信息和技術、外匯融資、資本市場服務以及租賃商業服務的顯著增長所致。

But non-manufacturing employment dropped another 0.2 percentage points to 48.5, indicating more job shedding. And China’s construction industry appeared to decelerate after revving up substantially in months prior, as a sub-index for the sector dropped to 61.1 in July, a marked fall from June’s reading of 62.

但非製造業就業人數又下降了0.2個百分點至48.5，表明用工量繼續減少。中國的建築行業在經過此前幾個月的大幅加速後也出現減速，7月建築業商務活動指數降至61.1，相較6月份的62有明顯下降。

The official figures suggested things were grim for China’s manufacturing sector, but the latest edition of an independent activity gauge for the sector suggests they may be improving.

官方數據顯示中國製造業狀況嚴峻，但根據獨立調研機構財新(Caixin)最新發布的數據，中國製造業可能有所提高。

The Caixin-Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for July rose above the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction with a reading of 50.6, up from 48.6 in June.

財新7月份PMI比6月份高了2個百分點，升至50.6，來到榮枯線上方。

The return to growth for the gauge, marking its highest reading since February 2015, comes as its official counterpart published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics has finally slipped into contraction after four months of respite.

這是財新PMI自2015年2月以來達到的最高水平，標誌中國製造業恢復增長，但與國家統計局公佈的數據出現背離。

The survey also showed output, buying activity and new orders all returned to growth as well, while a fall in new export orders suggested that growing demand was primarily domestic. However, companies surveyed said they had cut jobs in July for a fifth month running, if at a marginally slower rate.

財新的調查研究還表明產出、購買活動以及新訂單都恢復增長，但新出口訂單出現下降，這表明需求提高主要來自國內。不過受調查公司表示他們在7月份繼續裁員，這已是連續第五個月用工量收縮，雖然收縮速度略微放緩。