“政治大戲”緣何沒有驚動美國股市
Two peculiar things happened in America this week. One of these made headlines:
Donald Trump sacked James Comey as head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, just as the agency intensified investigations into the president’s dealings with Russia. It has plunged Washington into a political drama which, at best, could create months of distraction and, at worst, spark a Nixon-style crisis.
就在聯邦調查局(FBI)加緊調查唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)與俄羅斯的交易之際，這位美國總統解僱了FBI局長詹姆斯?科米(James Comey)。此事在華盛頓掀起一場政治大戲，最好的情況是可能造成幾個月的混亂，最壞情況是觸發一場尼克松式的危機。The second peculiar event, however, was less noticed: the so-called Vix index of volatility for American stocks sank below 10, to the lowest level seen since 1993, before slightly rebounding.
第二件怪事注意到的人就比較少了：美國股市的所謂Vix波動指數降至10以下——爲1993年以來最低點——稍後略有反彈。
Yes, you read that correctly. What the Vix now implies is that the outlook for the US economy and markets is more stable and benign than anything seen for 24 years — irrespective of missile threats from North Korea, dangers of China’s debt bubble, uncertainty around European populism — and this week’s speculation about Mr Trump.
是的，你沒看錯。Vix指數當前水平暗含的意思是，投資者認爲美國經濟和市場的前景比24年來任何情況下都更穩定、更有利，儘管當前面臨朝鮮的導彈威脅、中國債務泡沫的危險和圍繞歐洲民粹主義的不確定性，以及近日人們對特朗普的猜測。And while the Vix index is not a perfect barometer, since it can be distorted by opaque trades, what is equally striking is that other market indicators also signal calm. US equity prices are high and have not budged in response to these dramas. Credit markets are frothy. Indeed, confidence in future stability seems so high that Bridgewater, the hedge fund, is telling clients it is seeing an explosion in the “carry trade”, or a situation where investors borrow cheaply to invest in riskier assets.
儘管由於可能受到不透明交易的扭曲，Vix指標不是一個完美的風向標，但同樣令人吃驚的是，其他市場指標也預示着平靜。美國股市處於高點，並未隨着政治大戲上演而變動。信貸市場泛起了泡沫。實際上，人們對於未來穩定性的信心是如此之高，乃至對衝基金橋水(Bridgewater)告訴客戶稱，眼下“套息交易”火爆，也就是說，投資者紛紛借入較廉價的資金，投向風險更高的資產。How to explain this juxtaposition? One, cynical, explanation might be that investors, unlike journalists, simply don’t care about politics. The US economy has been expanding for eight years and groups such as the International Monetary Fund predict healthy global growth this year. And though the Federal Reserve is tightening, the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are still injecting huge liquidity into the market. This, rather than any Trump reform agenda, keeps supporting asset prices; or so the argument goes.
如何解釋這種市場與政治分隔的狀況？一種輕率的解釋或許是，跟新聞記者不同，投資者根本不關心政治。美國經濟已持續增長了8年，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)等機構預測稱，今年全球經濟會實現健康增長。而且，儘管美聯儲(Fed)在收緊政策，日本銀行(BoJ)和歐洲央行(ECB)仍在向市場注入鉅額流動性。正是這些、而不是特朗普的任何改革議程，一直支撐着資產價格；觀點大抵如此。A second explanation, however, is that politics does matter but investors think that the present political administration has two faces. One of these faces is dominated by the president as reality-television star, who grabbed the headlines this week by telling Mr Comey in effect, “You’re Fired!”, and subsequently embarked on a Twitter rage against his opponents.
然而，第二種解釋是，政治確實重要，但投資者認爲當前政治當局有兩張面孔。一張面孔來自當過電視真人秀明星的總統。近日特朗普上了新聞頭條，他實際上告訴科米“你被炒魷魚了！”，然後到推特上抨擊對手們。The second face is the sensible part of his senior team, which includes respected figures such as Rex Tillerson, Lieutenant General HR McMaster and General James Mattis (on the foreign policy side) and Gary Cohn, Steven Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross (on economic policy). These men appear to embrace a sober foreign policy stance and Reagan-style agenda of tax cuts, infrastructure plans and deregulation. It is the latter that has investors excited, since they think the “sensible” face will outlive the crazy dramas.
第二張面孔是他的高級團隊中的理性成員，外交政策方面有雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)、陸軍中將赫伯特?雷蒙德?麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)和詹姆斯?馬蒂斯(James Mattis)將軍，經濟政策方面有加里?科恩(Gary Cohn)、史蒂文?姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)和威爾伯?羅斯(Wilbur Ross)，都是受人尊敬的人物。這些人看來採取了一種冷靜理性的外交政策立場，以及里根式的減稅、基建和放鬆監管議程。正是後一方面讓投資者感到興奮，因爲他們認爲，瘋狂鬧劇收場後，這副“理性的”面孔還會繼續存在。Investors know that there is also a danger that Mr Trump’s Russia scandals prove so distracting that Congress never gets a chance to discuss tax reform or healthcare. But optimists around the White House insist that work on the reform agenda is proceeding apace; some believe that the scandals might make congressional Republicans more — not less — determined to pass some economic reform bills; after all, they will need some good news to campaign on in the next midterm elections.
投資者知道，還有一個危險是，特朗普的通俄醜聞會讓人分心，以致國會根本沒有機會討論稅改或醫保方案。但接近白宮的樂觀者堅稱，有關改革議程的工作正在向前推進；有些人認爲，醜聞也許會讓國會中的共和黨議員更堅定地（而不是相反）通過一些經濟改革法案；畢竟，在下一次中期選舉中，他們需要一些好消息來爲自己宣傳。There is, however, a third, more alarming, way to interpret the Vix: investors are dangerously complacent about (geo) political risks. More specifically, one way to frame the situation is that markets have stealthily slipped into a “normalisation of deviance” pattern, to use the phrase coined by sociologist Diane Vaughan: so many political boundaries and precedents have been broken that investors have lost perspective on events, because the bizarre seems almost normal.
然而，對於Vix指數當前水平還有第三種、也更令人擔憂的解讀：投資者對（地緣）政治風險滿不在乎，這是很危險的。更具體講，對當前形勢的一種解讀是，市場已悄悄地落入了一種“異常現象正常化”模式，這是社會學家黛安?沃恩(Diane Vaughan)創造的詞語。在這種模式下，太多政治邊界和先例被打破，以致投資者看不透局勢，因爲奇怪行爲幾乎成了正常的事情。After all, Mr Comey’s removal is no usual political blood-letting: it overturns the time-honoured principle that presidents do not fire the people investigating them, or attack independent bodies. If this is undermined, America’s political economy looks more like an emerging market than western democracy: rule of law is supposed to be a bedrock of America’s political culture (and its capital markets).
畢竟，科米被炒不是一般的政治殺戮：它會推翻一項由來已久的原則，即總統不會解僱正在調查自己的人，也不會攻擊獨立機構。如果這條原則被顛覆，美國的政治經濟看起來會更像一個新興市場、而不是西方民主國家：法治被認爲是美國政治文化（以及美國資本市場）的一塊基石。Most senior Republicans would dismiss this interpretation of events as alarmist. I still think that there is a reasonable chance that the antics of Trump-the-Reality-Television-President will be reined in by the judiciary and more sensible aides. But the longer the Vix stays low, the more peculiar the juxtaposition between markets and politics seems to be; and, of course, the greater the risk of a future snapback.
大多數資深共和黨人會認爲這種解讀危言聳聽。我仍認爲，這位電視真人秀明星總統的怪異舉止很有可能將受到司法部門和理性助手們的牽制。但是，Vix指數維持低位的時間越長，市場與政治之間的這種分隔就會顯得越古怪；當然，未來形勢迅速轉向的風險也就越大。
