傑米•戴蒙與掌舵太久的風險

If Jamie Dimon fulfils the plan he announced this week, and remains chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase until 2023, he will have been at the helm for 17 years. That is still some way short of the near-half century racked up by John Pierpont Morgan, who founded the eponymous bank in 1871. But in this day and age, it is more than a fair innings.

如果傑米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)執行他最近宣佈的計劃，繼續擔任摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)董事長兼首席執行官至2023年，那他將執掌摩根大通帥印17年。這與1871年創立該行的約翰·皮爾龐特·摩根(John Pierpont Morgan)近半個世紀的掌舵相比，仍是小巫見大巫。但在當今這個時代，這已超出公平範疇。

To fend off criticism that he has no clear succession plan in place, Mr Dimon has promoted Gordon Smith and Daniel Pinto to the new roles of co-president and co-chief operating officer, inviting the assumption that one of them will take over from him. The five-year timeframe also appears designed to scotch rumours Mr Dimon could stand as a Democrat candidate for US president in 2020.

爲化解外界對於他沒有明確接班計劃的批評，戴蒙同時提拔了戈登·史密斯(Gordon Smith)和丹尼爾·平託(Daniel Pinto)出任聯席總裁和聯席首席運營官，引發外界猜測其中一人將成爲他的接班人。五年的時間框架似乎也意在戳穿關於戴蒙將成爲民主黨的2020年美國總統候選人的傳言。

But on both counts, the mercurial Mr Dimon could yet surprise.

但在這兩方面，變幻莫測的戴蒙都仍有可能出人意料。

Succession planning has been an on-off topic for Wall Street’s longest-serving chief for years. He has sometimes elevated top performers, only to cut them down or ease them out soon afterwards. Dig out a copy of Fortune magazine from September 2008 and you will see the JPMorgan boss on the cover, flanked by the seven star bankers who had helped the group come through the financial crisis in better shape than any rival.

對這位華爾街任職最久的掌門人來說，接班計劃這個話題多年來一直沒有斷過。他偶爾提拔過表現最優秀的下屬，只是隨後很快就會把他們開掉或者悄悄地打發走。翻出2008年9月的《財富》(Fortune)雜誌，你會看到這位摩根大通老闆出現在封面上，身旁簇擁着7位明星銀行家，這些人幫助該集團比任何競爭對手都更加完好無損地挺過了金融危機。

Several of them — and others besides — were cited along the way as potential future chief executives. Today only one (the newly promoted Mr Smith) is still at the bank. Critics of Mr Dimon would say he has clung on to power and ruthlessly disposed of any rising star who might threaten his position prematurely. Acolytes would prefer to cast him as the football manager who only now has his optimum team.

其中幾位——加上另外幾人——先後被外界稱爲未來首席執行官的潛在人選。如今，只剩下一位（新近獲提拔的史密斯）仍在該行工作。戴蒙的批評者會說，他緊緊攥着權力，無情地排擠任何可能過早威脅其地位的後起之秀。親信們傾向於把他形容爲足球隊的經理，到現在纔剛剛擁有一支黃金陣容的隊伍。

What, then, should we make of the elevation of consumer boss Mr Smith and investment bank chief Mr Pinto to a rank that explicitly positions them as likely successors to the entrenched Mr Dimon· They might indeed fulfil that destiny if Mr Dimon’s five-year plan does not work out. But if it does, they would be in their sixties — not an age, surely, to start out as a bank CEO.

那麼，我們該如何看待消費部門主管史密斯和投行部門首席執行官平託的晉升（新職位明顯讓他們成爲地位穩固的戴蒙的潛在接班人）呢？如果戴蒙的五年計劃不能做到底，他們或許真有接班的命。但如果戴蒙做滿五年，他們將已經是60多歲的人——無疑不是接任銀行首席執行官的合適年齡。

Instead, those close to Mr Dimon believe he will spend the next few years grooming two or three alternative successors. Marianne Lake, the highly regarded finance chief, is probably the favourite, and is expected to be given management of an operating unit, such as the investment bank, in preparation. If Ms Lake were to wind up as chief executive, she would be Wall Street’s first female CEO — creating just the kind of legacy that a moderniser such as Mr Dimon would like to leave.

相反，接近戴蒙的人士認爲，他將利用接下來幾年時間培養兩、三名候選繼任者。備受尊敬的財務總監瑪麗安·雷克(Marianne Lake)可能是他最鐘意的人選，預計將被派去管理一個運營部門（比如投行部門）讓她獲得鍛鍊。如果雷克最終成爲首席執行官，她將成爲華爾街首位女性首席執行官——這正是戴蒙這樣的現代主義者希望留下的那種遺產。

So much for the succession plan. What of the five-year time span before it is enacted· Investors clearly like the idea of Mr Dimon staying around. JPMorgan’s shares have outperformed those of all its Wall Street peers over the 12 years he has been in charge. Profits last year, measured by the bank’s 12 per cent return on tangible equity, surpassed rivals’ too. Colleagues past and present enthuse about his leadership prowess, especially in times of crisis.

接班計劃僅此而已。那麼交接班之前的五年時間跨度怎麼樣呢？投資者顯然喜歡戴蒙留任。在他執掌該行的12年間，摩根大通的股價表現優於華爾街所有同行。以該行12%的有形股本回報率衡量，去年的利潤也超過了競爭對手。過去和現在的同事都欽佩他的領導才能，尤其是在危機時期。

And yet, however impressive the individual, long tenures can create big headaches. The need for potentially destabilising purges, as layers of frustrated senior managers pile up at the top of the organisation, is just one problem. Longstanding bosses, particularly successful ones, can spill over from confident and capable into arrogant and disengaged. There was more than a hint of that six years ago when the London Whale trading scandal generated a $6.2bn loss. More recently, he has appeared distracted, spending significant time on his work at the Business Roundtable lobby group in Washington.

然而，無論個人能力多麼令人印象深刻，長期佔據最高職位都會帶來巨大麻煩。隨着組織高層堆疊一層又一層懷才不遇的高層管理人員，需要進行潛在破壞穩定的清洗，這是問題之一。長期在位的老闆（尤其是那些成功的老闆）會由自信和能幹變得傲慢、不接地氣。六年前的“倫敦鯨”(London Whale)交易醜聞致使摩根大通虧損62億美元時，就已顯露出一些這方面的跡象。最近，他似乎有些分心，在華盛頓遊說組織——商業圓桌會議(Business Roundtable)的工作上花了大量時間。

For all that, Mr Dimon enjoys the support of the board — thanks in part to his impressive record but also to the quirks of the bank’s corporate governance. Mr Dimon is chairman as well as chief executive. And Lee Raymond, the former ExxonMobil chief executive who is the board’s “lead director” — and the closest thing Mr Dimon has to a boss — has himself been on the board for 31 years.

儘管如此，戴蒙還是得到了董事會的支持——這在一定程度上要歸功於他令人印象深刻的業績，同時也得益於該行奇特的公司治理結構。戴蒙既是首席執行官，也是董事長。而摩根大通董事會的“首席董事”、埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)前董事長李·雷蒙德(Lee Raymond)本人佔據董事會席位已有31年。

Overstaying is a common error — as demonstrated by JPMorgan adviser Tony Blair who spent a decade as UK prime minister, or by Jeff Immelt at General Electric, which is unravelling only months after the end of his 16-year stint in charge.

在位過久是一個常見錯誤——正如摩根大通顧問、擔任英國首相10年的託尼·布萊爾(Tony Blair)或通用電氣(General Electric)的傑夫·伊梅爾特(Jeff Immelt)所展示的那樣。在伊梅爾特結束16年掌權僅幾個月後，通用電氣就走上分拆的道路。

Then again, perhaps Mr Dimon is genuinely in that rare category of leaders, many of them company founders, who evolve with their business and prove exceptional corporate guardians — individuals such as Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (53 years at the helm) or Jeff Bezos at Amazon (23 years). Was it a coincidence that the day after JPMorgan’s succession announcement, the bank unveiled a not-for-profit healthcare collaboration with Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon·

話說回來，或許戴蒙真的屬於那類罕見的領導者，他們中的許多人是企業創始人，他們與企業一起與時俱進，證明自己是傑出的企業守護者——比如掌舵伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway) 53年的沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)或掌舵亞馬遜(Amazon) 23年的傑夫·貝索斯(Jeff Bezos)。在摩根大通宣佈接班計劃後的第二天，該行公佈了與伯克希爾哈撒韋和亞馬遜的一項非營利醫療合作計劃，這是巧合嗎？

Improving healthcare, along with tightening gun control and supporting immigration are among the big issues that Mr Dimon cares deeply about — fuelling the theory that he could yet have a shot at the presidency. It is an idea that his spokesman has refuted, on the grounds that in politics he would not have the executive power to implement the change he seeks.

改善醫療保健、加強槍支管控和支持移民，這些都是戴蒙深切關心的重大問題——這助燃了有關他可能嘗試競選總統的猜測。戴蒙的發言人駁斥了這種說法，理由是他在政壇反而得不到推行他所尋求的變革的執行權力。

For this ardent patriot, perhaps the only thing big enough to distract him from his attachment to JPMorgan is his love of America.

對於這位熱情的愛國者，也許唯一能吸引他告別摩根大通的大業就是他對美國的熱愛。