投資者仍對中國娛樂業過度陶醉

Western investors have long been beguiled by the sheer size of the Chinese market. But the reality has often failed to match their visions — just take the entertainment industry in China.

西方投資者一直被中國市場的龐大規模所迷惑。但現實往往達不到他們的期待——只要看看中國的娛樂業就會明白這一點。

The quest to combine the best of Hollywood magic with Chinese audiences has been playing out for some time now, with mixed results. Over the next year, investors are likely to be pitched a new wave of young companies wanting to go public and promising to succeed where others have failed.

將好萊塢模式的精華與中國觀衆結合起來的嘗試已經進行了一段時間，結果好壞參半。在接下來的一年裏，可能會有新一波想要上市並承諾會在其他公司跌倒過的領域取得成功的年輕公司，來到投資者面前進行推銷。

In a few months, STX, the second-tier Hollywood studio whose backers include Beijing-based Hony Capital, is expected to list its shares in Hong Kong. If all goes to plan, Open Road, another smaller Hollywood studio, will follow suit with an initial public offering in Hong Kong in 2019. Open Road was bought late last year by Tang media Partners, which is based in Shanghai and Los Angeles, and counts, China Media Group; Tencent Holdings; and Neil Shen, founder of Sequoia Capital China, as investors.

好萊塢二線影業公司STX預計將會在幾個月內在香港上市，其投資方包括北京弘毅投資(Hony Capital)。如果一切順利的話，另一家較小的好萊塢影業公司Open Road將於2019年在香港首次公開發行(IPO)。Open Road去年底被Tang Media Partners收購，後者在上海和洛杉磯設有辦公室，其投資方包括華聞傳媒投資集團股份有限公司(China Media Group)、騰訊控股(Tencent Holdings)以及紅杉中國(Sequoia China)創始人沈南鵬(Neil Shen)。

Over the past two years, the dominant story about China and the entertainment industry has been the serial acquisitions of western assets by former high-flying companies such as Dalian Wanda. Those transactions involved the conversion of massive amounts of Chinese renminbi to dollars to pay — or more likely overpay — for assets such as Wanda’s $3.5bn purchase of Legendary Entertainment, or its first signature deal, the $2.6bn purchase and subsequent listing of the AMC cinema chain.

在過去的兩年裏，關於中國和娛樂業的主要故事是大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)等曾經飛得極高的公司連續收購西方資產。這些交易涉及將大量人民幣兌換爲美元來支付（很多時候過高的）收購款，比如萬達以35億美元收購傳奇影業(Legendary Entertainment)，或者其首筆標誌性交易——26億美元購買AMC娛樂控股公司(AMC Entertainment Holdings)以及隨後推動AMC上市。

That wave of deals is now over, having fallen victim to Beijing’s displeasure and concerns about capital flight. That should sharpen investors’ focus on trying to pick the companies that will profit from the mixing of Hollywood and China, where the entertainment industry is changing fast.

這波交易潮如今已經結束——北京對資本外流不滿和擔憂的犧牲品。這應該會讓投資者更加註重挑選那些將受益於好萊塢與中國市場相結合的公司。中國的娛樂業正在快速變化。

Investors, for example, say Amazon is in talks that will probably result in its earmarking $1bn to acquire the rights and to produce three seasons of episodes based on a science fiction trilogy known by the title of the first volume, The Three Body Problem by Liu Cixin, a work that is wildly popular in China. It will prove more of a blockbuster than Game of Thrones, some mainland industry insiders predict. The rights are held by Lin Qi, the chairman of Youzu Interactive, primarily a developer of online games that is listed in China

例如，投資者們說，亞馬遜(Amazon)正在進行相關談判，談判結果很可能促使亞馬遜撥出10億美元，購買《三體》(The Three Body Problem)相關版權並基於該書製作三季連續劇。這部劉慈欣創作的三部曲科幻小說在中國廣受歡迎，書名取自三部曲的第一部。中國內地一些業內人士預測，根據《三體》改編的連續劇將比《權力的遊戲》(Game of Thrones)還要火。《三體》的影視版權握在遊族網絡(Youzu Interactive)董事長林奇手中。遊族網絡主要是一家網絡遊戲開發商，在中國上市。

Open Road is scouring the Chinese web for content (and is obtaining properties from online novel sites) to boost its fortunes ahead of that tentative listing. Many of the companies plotting IPOs over the next 12 months have attracted capital from some of the most respected venture capitalists.

Open Road正在中文網絡中搜羅內容（以及從網絡小說站點獲取版權）以便在其上市計劃落實之前提升發展勢頭。許多計劃在未來12個月IPO的公司吸引了一些最受尊敬的風險投資家的資金。

That is no guarantee they will prove a savvy investment for later stage investors, but the optimism about future Chinese entertainment and media consumption is growing. Analysts at Credit Suisse recently published a report on the prospects for the media industry in China, noting that it has “transitioned from a supply side and quantity driven expansion to a new age of growth underpinned by content and quality…Meanwhile, the TV drama industry has been transformed with the rise of online video websites as the primary distribution channel.” (That market has tripled in value to $42bn in 2016 from five years earlier, the brokerage notes.)

這並不能保證後來投資這些公司的人一定大賺，但人們對中國娛樂和媒體消費的前景日益感到樂觀。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)分析師最近發佈了一份關於中國傳媒業前景的報告，指出“中國傳媒業已經從供給和數量驅動的擴張過渡到以內容和質量爲支撐的新時代……與此同時，隨着在線視頻網站崛起爲主要分銷渠道，電視劇行業發生了鉅變”（瑞信指出，2016年該市場的價值增至2011年的3倍，達到420億美元）。

Part of the report’s optimism again rests on the size of the potential market — as it always does with China. “If the US is the dragon’s head, China is the dragon’s tail,” says one investor. “It is fat and growing. To really prosper, you need the Chinese tail; you need to pre-sell in China as well as the US.” Box office revenues [in China?] are expected to grow at a rate of 15 per cent in the next three years to$87, Credit Suisse says.

報告的部分樂觀情緒同樣源於潛在市場的規模——談到中國時情況總是如此。一位投資者說：“如果美國是龍的頭，那麼中國就是龍尾。這條龍肥碩，而且還在繼續長大。要想真正興旺，你需要中國龍尾；你需要在中國以及美國預售。”瑞信表示，預計未來3年票房收入將以每年15%的速度增長至870億美元。

In addition, protectionism gives Chinese mainland players an unfair advantage in the domestic market. Despite Beijing’s problems with overpaying for foreign entertainment content, studios and sports teams, the government is still determined to see Chinese content go global.

此外，保護主義讓中國內地企業在國內市場上享有不公平的優勢。儘管中國政府不滿於中國企業出過高價格收購外國娛樂內容、製片廠和運動隊，但中國政府仍然決心讓中國內容走向全球。

Most importantly, China’s growing clout in the global entertainment industry reflects its edge when it comes to mobile technology. Entertainment companies are developing short video streaming services for their mobile customers. Sequoia and Tencent, for example, are backing Kuaishou and plan to take the company, which is valued at $18bn, public this year. Meanwhile, Bilibili, another Chinese short-form video company in which Tiger Global and Li Ruigang’s China Media have invested, will soon go public in the US with a valuation of $4bn-$5bn.

非常重要的是，中國在全球娛樂業日益擴大的影響力反映出其在移動技術上的優勢。各娛樂公司都在開發面向移動客戶的短視頻流服務。例如，紅杉和騰訊投資了快手(Kuaishou)，並計劃在今年讓這家估值180億美元的公司上市。與此同時，老虎環球基金(Tiger Global)和黎瑞剛的華人文化產業投資基金(China Media Capital)投資的另一家中國短視頻公司嗶哩嗶哩(Bilibili)即將在美國上市，估值爲40億至50億美元。

As tantalising as these prospects seem, it is worth noting that just one of the three companies covered in the Credit Suisse report — Beijing Enlight Media — has an outperform rating. The challenge for investors is that many of these companies are young with a track record that is too short to judge. Not all of the new generation of aspiring media titans will succeed. Hollywood has always been about marketing dreams to investors as well as to audiences.

雖然這些前景看起來很誘人，但值得注意的是，在瑞信報告中所涵蓋的三家公司中，只有北京光線傳媒(Beijing Enlight Media)獲得了跑贏大盤的評級。投資者面臨的挑戰是，許多此類公司都很年輕，業績記錄太短而無法判斷好壞。並非所有新一代的有抱負的媒體巨頭都會取得成功。好萊塢總是致力於向投資者和觀衆推銷夢想。

Investors should not be too starry-eyed.

投資者不應被衝昏頭腦。