新增鋼鐵產能挑戰中國治污計劃

Steel plant closures central to the Chinese government’s plan for cutting pollution are likely to be outpaced by steel mills under construction, casting doubt on Beijing’s ability to make headway against air pollution enveloping northern China.

關停鋼廠是中國政府減少污染計劃的核心環節，但其關門的步伐可能趕不上鋼鐵產能擴張的步伐，這令人質疑中國政府抗擊華北地區空氣污染的行動能否取得進展。

On Wednesday, Beijing was again gripped by the thick grey pall that has lingered over northern China for more than a week. Public anger over air pollution has spurred the government to speed up the release of air monitoring data, and could strengthen the hand of environmental regulators in shutting down powerful polluters.

週三，北京再一次被濃濃的霧霾籠罩，這場霧霾覆蓋華北地區的時間已超過一個禮拜。民衆對空氣污染的憤怒，促使政府加快了發佈空氣質量監測數據的頻率，並可能促使環境監管機構關停有勢力排污企業的力度增強。

About 30m tonnes of new steel capacity across the country is still under construction, double the 15m tonnes of cuts pledged for 2014 by Hebei province, the industrial heartland surrounding Beijing which accounts for about a quarter of Chinese steel capacity.

目前中國全國範圍內在建的鋼鐵產能約3000萬噸，比河北省2014年承諾削減的1500萬噸產能多一倍。河北省是環繞北京的工業大省，鋼產能佔全中國的四分之一左右。

Hebei agreed to the cuts as part of a national plan to reduce polluting emissions in the North China plain, where pollution regularly exceeds national standards.

華北平原的污染情況一直比全國標準嚴重。爲服從一項旨在減少華北平原污染物排放的全國計劃，河北省同意削減鋼產能。

State media showed footage of steel mills and cement plants being destroyed to underline the government’s resolve. About 8m tonnes of capacity have been permanently closed down in Hebei since the plan was announced.

官方媒體播放了拆除鋼廠和水泥廠的畫面，以凸顯政府的決心。自計劃宣佈以來，河北已永久關停約800萬噸鋼鐵產能。

But so far, it is the least powerful polluters that have taken it on the chin. “Generally speaking, the mills that have closed are older and unprofitable,” Wang Jiguang, a sales director at Hebei Iron and Steel Group, one of China’s largest steel producers, said at an iron ore conference organised by Metal Bulletin in Beijing. “Most of them have actually been idle for six months to a year already due to economic reasons.”

但迄今爲止，被關停的只不過是那些實力最弱的排污企業。在英國《金屬導報》(Metal Bulletin)於北京舉辦的一次鐵礦石行業會議上，中國規模最大的鋼鐵製造商之一——河北鋼鐵集團營銷管理處處長王繼光說：“總體來說，到目前爲止關停的都只是些陳舊落後、不賺錢的鋼廠。其中大多數其實已經因爲經濟原因停產了6個月到1年。”

Hebei pledged to cut its steel capacity by 60m tonnes by 2017, as part of a negotiated deal to reduce emissions in northern China, the Yangtze Delta and the Pearl River Delta while encouraging industrial investment in the arid west.

河北省承諾在2017年底前削減6000萬噸鋼鐵產能，這是一項經過協商的方案的一部分，根據該方案，中國將減少華北、長三角和珠三角的污染物排放，同時鼓勵企業在貧瘠的西部投資發展工業。

Meanwhile, the central government set up a $1.6bn fund to reward industry that complies with emission cuts, in recognition of the local jobs and taxes generated by polluting companies. It is expected to transfer about $330m to Hebei province, which is also the source of most of Beijing’s power supply.

與此同時，考慮到污染排放企業對當地就業和稅收的貢獻，中央政府設立了一項16億美元的專項資金，用於獎勵污染減排達標的企業。專項資金預計將撥給河北省約3.3億美元。北京的電力主要由該省供應。

Past attempts by central planning agencies to reduce industrial capacity by fiat have similarly ended in tears, as plant bosses and the banks that lend to them almost always chose to expand rather than face closure.

中央規劃部門以往試圖通過行政指令削減工業產能的舉措同樣以失敗告終，因爲工廠老闆和爲工廠提供貸款的銀行幾乎總是會選擇擴張產能，而不是坐等被關閉。

Allowing the market to cull the inefficient producers has proved even more difficult in China, as state-owned steel companies are generally the worst performers. Nearly every inland steel producer with more than 5m tonnes of capacity – in other words, at least a dozen of China’s biggest and most politically powerful mills – are losing money, according to industry expert Xu Zhongbo of Beijing Metal Consulting Ltd, with the exception of mills that have invested in automotive steel.

事實證明，在中國，讓市場來淘汰缺乏效率的生產商更加困難，因爲國有鋼鐵企業通常業績最差。除了投資生產汽車用鋼的鋼廠以外，據北京梅塔科諮詢公司(Beijing Metal Consulting)總裁許中波表示，內地產能在500萬噸以上的鋼鐵製造商——也就是中國規模最大、最有政治勢力的十數家鋼鐵企業——幾乎全都在虧損。

Policies directly tied to reducing pollution rather than cutting industrial capacity have generally been more effective. For instance, about a decade ago China ordered the phase-out of the heavily polluting Soderberg process at aluminium smelters, and smelters were duly upgraded.

把政策目標直接放在減少污染、而不是削減工業產能，效果通常更好。例如，中國約10年前下令電解鋁行業淘汰污染嚴重的自焙槽技術，鋁廠都改造了設備。

Power plants across China have installed emissions scrubbers, and have become more willing to use them in recent years after power subsidies were tweaked to reward their operation.

近年來，中國各地發電廠都在安裝滌氣器，而且隨着政府修改發電補貼規則、獎勵使用滌氣裝置的做法，電廠也就更有意願安裝這類裝置。