挑戰:中國的中產階級不高興

China has the world's largest number of billionaires and 700 million peasants. In between is a surprisingly thin and unhappy middle class, which poses a big social and economic challenge.

中國有全世界數量最多的億萬富翁，還有七億農民。夾在兩者之間的，是薄薄的一層中產，而且他們還相當不高興。這對中國未來經濟和社會發展都是一個挑戰。

Among the 3,000 delegates of the 2013 National People's Congress, the percentage of blue-collar workers and peasants has risen to 13% from 8% in 2012. The number of migrant workers has jumped to 30 from just three last year. Wealthy Chinese continue to be well represented. China's richest man, Zong Qinhou, is attending the annual powwow for the 11th time.

在3，000來位全國人大代表中，工人和農民的比例從2012年的8%上升到了今年了13%。農民工代表的數量更是從去年的3位上升到今年的30位左右。富裕的階層繼續獲得良好的代表，比如中國首富宗慶後已經是第11次參加全國人民代表大會了。

The squeezed middle class deserves more love. As many as 51% of Chinese working professionals suffered from some level of depression, the Ministry of Health said in 2011. They blame pressure from a rapidly changing society, increased competition, long work hours and high property prices.

中國被擠壓的中產階級需要更多的關愛。衛生部2011年曾經引用數據說，有高達51%的中國人患有不同程度的抑鬱。原因在於快速變化的社會、日益激烈的競爭、長工作時間還有高房價。

'The biggest risk in the world is China's middle class not being happy,' said Shaun Rein, the managing director of China Market Research, a consulting firm. 'They are the most pessimistic group in the world.' 'The truly rich can afford to live anywhere, and the poor get double-digit wage increases every year,' Mr. Rein, author of the book 'End of Cheap China,' said. 'China's middle class has hopes to own a car and home and be rich one day. But as their salary growth slows, they realize they will never be able to get there.'

“中國現在最大的問題是中產階級不高興，他們是全世界最悲觀的一羣中產，”諮詢機構CMR的創始者和總經理，《廉價中國的結束》一書作者Shaun Rein說，“ 真正的有錢人可以在任何他們想要的地方生活，而底層人民每年會得到兩位數的收入增長。中國的中產階級希望能夠買車買房，有一天成爲富人。但隨着他們的收入增長放緩，他們意識到自己可能永遠也達不到那個目標。”

The Chinese government has made it a priority to help migrant workers. In 2012, 25 provinces raised minimum wages by an average of 20%, official data show. But wage increases for managers at multinationals, private and state-owned companies have slowed or stalled.

中國政府已經把幫助農民工作爲一個優先任務。2012年，官方數據顯示中國25個城市最低工資平均提高了20%。但近年來，跨國企業、國有和私營企業的工資漲幅開始放緩，甚至停滯。

At present, the great majority of the Chinese are working class, living in households with annual disposable income of between $6,000 and $16,000, just about enough to cover basic needs, according to consulting firm McKinsey & Co. The middle class, with annual disposable income of between $16,000 and $34,000, make up only 6% of the urban population. A tiny group of upper-middle-class to rich consumers, whose disposable income exceeds $34,000, comprises only 2% of the urban population.

據麥肯錫調查，目前來看，中國絕大多數人不過是工薪階層，每年可支配收入在37,000元 到106,000元人民幣，只夠支付日常開銷。中產階級，每年可支配收入在106,000 元到 229,000元人民幣，他們是有更多可以隨意花銷的錢的人，但只佔有城鎮人口的6%。每年可支配收入高於229，000元人民幣的就可以算是富裕人士了，他們的人數只佔城鎮人口的2%。

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development defines the global middle class as those households with daily spending between $10 and $100 per person in purchasing power parity terms. The OECD reckons the U.S. has the biggest middle class in the world, with some 230 million people, or 73% of the population. It puts China's middle class at up to 10% of the population, but expects the number to rise to 40% by 2020.

經濟合作組織對中產的定義是每天消費在10美元到100美元的人士，並根據不同國家價格水平進行調整。該組織認爲美國有世界上最大的中產階級羣，即2，300萬人口，佔總國民的73%；而中國的中產數量相當於近10%的人口數量，但預計2020年人數會上升到總人數的40%。根據胡潤2013年數據，按美元計算，中國有408個身家在10億美元以上的人，而美國只有317個。

China has 408 billionaires, more than the 317 who live in the U.S., according to Hurun Global Rich list 2013.

中國基本生活用品相對還是不貴，但要在中國過上中產階級生活，則並不便宜。在北京，一杯星巴克拿鐵大約要4.81美元，舊金山要3.55美元，香港要3.87美元。中國製造的大衆帕薩特在國內最高可以賣到5萬美金，在美國只要3.3萬美元。中國製造的衣服和電子產品常常比國外價格要高，中國效率不高的零售系統可能是原因之一。

Although basic goods in China are still relatively cheap, it is costly to lead a middle-class life in China. A Starbucks grande latte costs $4.81 in Beijing, compared with $3.55 in San Francisco and $3.87 in Hong Kong. A locally made Volkswagen Passat sedan retails for up to $50,000 in China, versus up to $33,000 in the U.S. Goods that are made in China, including clothing and electronics, are often more expensive there than they are abroad, partly due to inefficient distribution.

中國的中產階級也受到高房價的困擾。“就是因爲高房價，中國的中產階級存不下什麼錢。”波士頓諮詢公司的合夥人Jeff Walters說。

The middle class in China also suffers from high housing costs. Average rent jumped 9% in Beijing in January, according to the Statistics Bureau. 'If only because of rent, it is hard to save a lot of money in top-tier cities for the middle class,' said Jeff Walters, a partner at Boston Consulting. In some ways, middle-class status in China doesn't confer the same privileges as in the West. In China, basic things such as uncontaminated baby formula, clean air, top-quality schools and private hospitals are luxuries, out of reach of many members of the middle class. Usually, the middle class is the stabilizing force in a society. But China's nascent middle class, which is increasingly demanding better health and more freedom, marched on the streets of the prosperous Ningbo city in 2012 to protest a chemical project.

在中國做箇中產階級的感覺可能不如西方中產階級。那些日常的東西，比如安全的嬰兒奶粉、潔淨的空氣、教學質量一流的學校和私人醫院都是一種奢侈品，是普通的中產階級可望而不可及的。一般來說，中產階級是社會的穩定力量，但中國的新興中產階級越來越多地要求更好的醫療條件和自由，在相對富裕的寧波市，去年市民爲了反對一個化工項目走上大街遊行。

The authorities have said they want to develop an olive-shaped society, with a fat base in the middle. The 18th Party Congress in late 2012 came up with a new plan to double average income by 2020 by changing the economic growth model and income distribution system. But they may be missing something.

中國政府說想要打造橄欖型的社會，兩頭尖中間大。十八大也有了在2020年前，通過改變經濟增長模式和收入分配結構來將收入翻倍的計劃。但這麼做並非足夠。

'The government hasn't addressed the core of the issue,' said Wang Xiaolu of the China Reform Foundation and one of China's leading academics on income distribution. 'Without reforms of the fiscal system, land policies, social welfare and the administrative system, mere income growth can't resolve China's middle class problem.'

“更突出的問題沒有提，”中國收入分配專家、中國改革基金會的王小魯說，“如果沒有財稅、土地、社保和行政體制的改革，光把收入提高解決不了中產的實際問題。”