中國將如何幫助美國中產階級再度崛起

America has often thought of itself as a middle-class nation — one in which most people are merely comfortable and neither very rich nor very poor.

美國通常自認是一箇中產階級國家——大多數人過着只能算是舒適的生活，既不太富，也不會太窮。

That notion has come under siege lately. Income inequality has been rising since the early 1980s, and the median household income is now lower than it was in 1999. The status of the middle class has become a highly charged political issue. Nonetheless, a sober look at the trends of recent years reveals some reason for optimism: Pathways that already exist offer some chance of rejuvenating the middle class.

這種觀點近來受到很多質疑。收入差距從上世紀80年代以來一直在拉大，家庭收入中位數已經低於1999年的水平。中產階級地位成爲極度敏感的政治問題。然而，冷靜下來看一看近年的趨勢，我們仍然有理由保持樂觀：一些已有的途徑，給中產階級的再度崛起帶來了機會。

The weakness of recent middle-class wage growth has stemmed from a number of factors, including foreign competition, technological changes that favor highly skilled workers and persistent poverty. Let’s consider each in turn.

近年中產階級薪資增長的乏力源於多個因素，包括外國競爭，有利於高技能工人的科技變革，以及揮之不去的貧困問題。下面我們就逐一分析一下。

Much of the competition for American manufacturing has come from China, and recent research has shown that China’s economic impact in the United States has been bigger than many economists initially thought, and in some ways, it has been more painful. China’s manufacturing has held down American middle-class wages, while soaring Chinese demand for commodities has pushed up resource prices. Of course, cheap Chinese imports have made American paychecks go further, but that is no consolation for people who have lost their jobs or suffered lower wages as a consequence.

美國製造業的競爭主要來自中國，近來的研究顯示，中國經濟對美國的影響要比許多經濟學家原本估計的更大，從某些方面來看，也更痛苦。中國製造制約了美國中產階級薪資，而中國的大宗商品需求也推高了資源價格。當然，廉價的中國進口商品讓美國人的薪水可以買到更多的東西，但這不會讓那些因此失業或薪資下降的人好受些。

Better times may be ahead, though. Higher wages in China — and other emerging nations — are now limiting the competitive advantage of those economies. And perhaps more important for Americans, as China reaches technological maturity, it is likely to shower innovations on consumers, creating a net gain for people in the United States.

不過接下來情況可能會有好轉。中國及其他新興國家的薪資上漲，限制了這些經濟體的競爭優勢。而對美國人來說，更重要的可能是隨着中國走向技術成熟，會給消費者帶來鋪天蓋地的創新，爲生活在美國的人創造淨收益。

China is already the major producer of solar panels and electric cars, for example. It is likely to contribute important innovations in consumer drones and driverless cars and in many other fields: The Chinese government is pouring immense resources into biotechnology, including new gene editing techniques. When it comes to mobile apps, messaging and electronic payments, China is arguably ahead of America. Imagine a future in which Chinese innovations benefit Americans just as the United States benefited Europe and vice versa.

例如，中國已經是最大的太陽能組件和電動汽車生產國。它還可能給民用無人機、無人駕駛汽車以及其他許多領域帶來重要的創新：中國政府向生物技術領域投入了巨量資源，包括新的基因編輯技術。在移動應用、即時通信和電子支付方面，中國可以說已經超過美國。可以想象在將來，中國創新給美國人帶來的益處，將不亞於美國和歐洲之間的那種互惠。

This would mean more competition from China, of course, and lost jobs in some fields, but to simply focus on the negatives would be shortsighted. The reality is that innovators do not capture all or even most of the benefits they bring to the world. Once an idea emerges, its benefits begin to expand, and those benefits will surely spread to the United States.

當然，這意味着更多來自中國的競爭，某些領域會有失業，但死盯着負面因素是缺乏遠見的。事實上，創新者給世界帶來的益處不會被他獨攬，甚至大部分都談不上。一種理念一旦產生，其益處就會擴散出去，當然也會惠及美國。

What economists call skill-based technical change may also shift in a more egalitarian direction. The advent of information technology increased the value of workers and managers who could manipulate these new talents effectively, while smart software eliminated the jobs of many travel agents and paper-filing clerks. But consider a universe in which all it takes to work with a computer is to talk to it. That could lower the wages of technicians, while opening a new world where less skilled laborers could work with information technology effectively.

經濟學家所說的“基於技能的技術變革”還會帶來一種平等主義的趨向。信息技術的到來，給那些能有效掌握這些新才能的工人和管理人帶來升值，與此同時，智能軟件會淘汰許多旅行社和文員的工作崗位。但是，設想你生活在一個只需跟電腦說話就可以工作的世界。這會降低技術員的薪資，但同時也會開啓一個新世界，技能水平低的工人也可以有效地使用信息技術來工作。

That new world is already emerging. Consider the Amazon Echo, a small stationary computer that responds to voice commands. It can play music, call a car service or build a shopping list. Imagine fully functional voice-activated computers created for the workplace as more people grow up with information technology at their fingertips.

這樣的新世界已經在浮現。以Amazon Echo爲例，這是一種可接受語音指令的小型固定電腦。它可以播放音樂、叫車、創建購物清單。隨着越來越多的人在普及了信息技術的環境中長大，設想在工作場所有這樣一臺全功能語音激活電腦會是怎樣一番景象。

Finally, income inequality may begin to reverse itself through the evolution of social norms. Poor people who see no way out of their plight won’t all be able to advance without outside help, but some of the impoverished will succeed despite the barriers they face.

最後，社會規範的演化也可能扭轉收入不平等的趨勢。在困境中四面碰壁的窮人，勢必需要外部力量的幫助，然而還是有一些貧困者可以衝破隔閡取得成功。

Religions and social movements with strong moral codes may be able to help improve life prospects. It is striking, for example, that Utah fits the economic profile of an older, more middle-class-oriented America. The reasons for this are complex, but they may stem in part from the large number of Mormons in the state.

因循嚴苛道德準則的宗教和社會運動可能有助於改善生活前景。比如我們驚訝地看到，猶他州的經濟狀況，是符合一種老派的、更具中產階級導向的美國形象的。原因很複雜，但可能在一定程度上源於該州有衆多摩門教徒。

Mormons have done relatively well in economic terms, perhaps, at least in part, because their religious culture encourages behavior consistent with prosperity, such as savings, mutual assistance, family values and no drug and alcohol abuse.

摩門教徒在經濟上的表現相對良好，在一定程度上可能是因爲他們的宗教文化鼓勵那些與富足生活相一致行爲，比如儲蓄、互助、家庭價值、不濫用藥物和酒精。

I am not a Mormon and am not advocating that religion or any other. But it seems reasonable to observe that changing social norms, sometimes associated with religion, can help improve living standards.

我不是摩門教徒，也沒有在倡導這種或其他任何一種宗教。然而這似乎是一個合理的觀察——社會規範的改變有助於提高生活水平，而有時候這種改變和宗教有關。

All of these mechanisms involve some degree of speculation, and the speed at which they will develop will vary. Still, these processes can already be found around us to a limited degree. Furthermore, all of them could happen without requiring any major change in American public policy and thus they could bypass possible government gridlock.

這些機制都包含了一定程度的猜測，它們的發展也將是快慢不一的。然而我們已經可以在身邊看到些許跡象。此外，所有這些進程都不需要美國做出任何重大公共政策改變，一旦政府陷入僵持，它也不會受到制約。

Most people agree there is plenty of unfairness built into the current political system, such as bad public policies, which often favor the well-off and erect barriers to the advancement of poorer and less educated individuals. How to change these policies will no doubt continue to be a matter of political debate.

多數人認爲現行政治制度存在許多先天的不公，例如糟糕的公共政策往往讓富人受益，給較貧困、教育程度較低的人制造障礙，阻止他們提升自己。這些政策該如何去改變，無疑仍將是一個政治辯題。

But there is reason to believe that when inequality trends start to run in reverse — whenever that might be — it will be because of processes that are operating largely outside of politics. Technology, trade and even religion may help restore prosperity to the middle class.

但我們有理由相信，不平等趨勢的逆轉——不管究竟什麼時候出現——將源自一些基本上在政治之外運轉的進程。技術、貿易甚至宗教都可能幫助中產階級重新過上富足的生活。