特朗普背叛美國中產階級

It was fitting that Donald Trump was on the way to the Vatican when he came out with his US budget. Only a pope could hear a confession as egregious as President Trump’s fiscal plan. Pope Francis champions “social capitalism”, a philosophy that values each member of society. Mr Trump’s budget would decimate support for America’s poorest to fund a tax bonanza for its wealthiest. His budget achieves balance through numerological voodoo. Rarely has a fiscal document relied on such dark accounting.

美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在去梵蒂岡的路上推出了他的財政預算提案，這一安排堪稱貼切。也只有教皇才能傾聽像該提案這般駭人的懺悔。教皇方濟各(Pope Francis)支持“社會資本主義”，其理念是尊重社會的每一位成員。而特朗普的財政預算將大幅減少對美國最貧窮人羣的支持，以便爲針對最富裕人羣的減稅買單。他的預算僅靠數字巫術實現平衡。很少有哪份財政文件是建立在這樣的暗箱會計手法之上的。

It is a blueprint for epic betrayal. Mr Trump’s campaign was about helping the US middle classes. Now he wants to denude them of what cushion there is. In addition to the cuts for the needy, such as food stamps, the budget would wipe out higher education funding. Subsidies for those who cannot afford college loans would be eliminated. Tax incentives to encourage those on lower wages to stay in work — the highly effective earned income tax credit — would be heavily cut. Investment in research, job training, opioid treatment and scholarships would fall sharply. The only spending increases would come in the defence budget and for US-Mexico border security.

這是一份全面背叛的藍圖。特朗普的競選主題就是幫助美國的中產階級。如今他卻想要剝奪他們現有的保障。除了削減面向貧困人羣的福利，例如食品券，這份預算還將砍掉高等教育撥款，取消對無力負擔大學貸款者的補貼，並大幅削減爲鼓勵低收入人羣繼續工作而給予他們的稅收優惠——高度有效的勞動所得稅抵免(earned income tax credit)。此外，預算還將大幅減少對研究、職業培訓、阿片類治療和獎學金的投入。只有國防預算和美墨邊境安全方面的支出有所增長。

On top of that, Mr Trump’s budget commits the deadly sin of electoral suicide. The consolation is that he will find it hard to persuade his Republican colleagues to push most of it through.

最重要的是，特朗普的預算犯了“選舉自殺”這條死罪。令人安慰的是，特朗普會發現很難說服他的共和黨同僚們通過預算的大部分內容。

That said, Mr Trump has set the limits of America’s economic agenda. It trades investment in people for Gatsby-scale windfalls. It sacrifices budgetary common sense for magical thinking. Most of all, it robs the federal government of the tools to address America’s challenges.

話雖如此，特朗普仍由此設定了美國經濟議程的限度：犧牲對人的投資，以換取蓋茨比(Gatsby)級別的鉅額財富；放棄制定預算的常識，代之以奇幻的思維。最重要的是，聯邦政府將因此失去應對美國挑戰的工具。

Four of Mr Trump’s departments — education, housing, energy and the Environmental Protection Agency — are headed by people who want to shut down the agencies they lead. The irony is that Mr Trump is laying the ground for a hundred more Trump insurgencies. Somewhere out there, another Trump lies in waiting. The next one will really drain the swamp. Believe me.

特朗普政府有四個部門——教育部、住房和城市發展部、能源部和國家環境保護局——的負責人希望關掉自己領導的部門。諷刺的是，特朗普的作爲在爲100次“特朗普式起義”播下種子。還有其他的“特朗普”在某處伺機而動。這一個真的會“抽乾沼澤”。相信我。

But Mr Trump’s least forgivable sin is waste. Journalists experience the Trump presidency as a field day of leaks from an out-of-control operation. History will record it as an act of gross negligence.

但特朗普最不可饒恕的罪責是浪費。記者們覺得，特朗普任期就像某個失控行動，天天有現成的爆料送上門來。歷史將認定他的作爲有嚴重過失。

Mr Trump was driven to victory by the anguish of middle America against the elites. It followed the longest period in US history of stagnant middle incomes. This included rising mortality rates for large swaths of middle America, and a collapse in morale of the blue-collar male. Their most telling symptom is an addiction to painkillers. Mr Trump’s success was the manifestation of a middle class that has lost faith in liberal democracy. It turns out he is offering a cure worse than the disease.

當初把特朗普推向勝利的，是飽受痛苦的中產階級對精英們造反。此前美國經歷了史上最漫長的中等收入停滯。這包括美國中部大片地區不斷上升的死亡率，以及藍領男性士氣崩潰。最說明問題的症狀是服用止痛藥成癮。特朗普的成功說明美國的中產階級對自由民主體制喪失信心。但結果證明，他拿出的療法比疾病本身更可怕。

What will be the fallout? The first is that it will deepen the trench that spawned Mr Trump’s victory. The two likeliest pieces of Mr Trump’s agenda to go through are the tax cuts and the abolition of Obamacare. The first will shower society’s winners with more gains. The second will deprive its losers of their most important safety net. Together they will lead to a sharp deterioration in America’s balance sheet.

這會帶來哪些後果？首先是會深化當初推動特朗普問鼎白宮的社會分裂。特朗普最可能獲得通過的兩個議程是減稅和廢除奧巴馬醫改(Obamacare)。前者會讓社會的贏家更加富裕。而後者將讓輸家喪失他們最重要的安全網。兩者疊加，將導致美國資產負債表急劇惡化。

Almost three-quarters of America’s budget now goes to defence, debt interest payments and entitlements such as social security and Medicare. That is set to rise to more than 80 per cent in Mr Trump’s term. The ratio that goes to investment in people, particularly in skills and education, will continue to shrink. America’s budget was already borrowing from tomorrow to pay off yesterday. Mr Trump would convert that into wholesale theft.

如今，美國財政預算的近四分之三撥給了國防、債務利息支付、以及社保和聯邦老年醫保(Medicare)等應享福利。特朗普任內，這幾項佔比總和將增至80%以上。對人的投入佔比，尤其是對技能和教育的投入，將持續縮減。之前的美國財政預算就已是寅吃卯糧，特朗普將把它變成徹頭徹尾的盜竊。

The second fallout is to America’s democratic sanity. It was barely a quarter of a century ago that the US model triumphed over the Soviet Union. That victory was delivered by a mixed economy that invested in America’s middle classes. The Soviet threat brought out the best in enlightened capitalism.

其次是會對美國的民主理智造成衝擊。美國模式戰勝蘇聯模式也就剛剛過去了四分之一個世紀。那場勝利要歸功於投資美國中產階級的混合經濟。來自蘇聯的威脅激發出了開明資本主義中最好的那一面。

Mr Trump’s plans epitomise the amnesia that has befallen America’s elites since then. Two decades of rising inequality have brought the US to the edge of democratic tolerance. Mr Trump is now testing its limits.

特朗普的提案象徵着美國精英們患上的健忘症。過去20年不斷加劇的不平等讓美國走到了民主寬容的邊緣。現在特朗普要試探它的極限。

In one key sense the US system is working. Mr Trump’s power is being checked and balanced. America’s courts have blocked his plans to discriminate against Muslims. The media and civil society are doing a stellar job of shining a light on Mr Trump’s blunders. A special prosecutor is investigating Mr Trump’s alleged collusion with a foreign power. That is how it was designed to work.

在一個關鍵層面，美國的制度在起作用。特朗普的權力受到了制衡。美國多家法院阻止了他歧視穆斯林的計劃。媒體和公民社會在揭露特朗普的愚蠢錯誤方面表現出色。一名特別檢察官正在調查特朗普與境外勢力涉嫌串通一事。這正是美國製度的設計初衷。

In a larger sense, though, the system is failing. Mr Trump’s victory was a sure sign of that. What he plans to do with it would be a greater failing still.

但從廣義上講，美國體制在出現故障。特朗普的勝利就是一個明確的標誌。他打算邁出的下一步將釀成更大的失敗。