中國已承諾減排 印度何時行動

For more than 20 years, international climate talks have been dominated by a schism between those who created the problem of climate change (largely the United States and nations of the European Union) and those who would greatly contribute to it moving forward (largely China and India). But as climate negotiators meet in Lima, Peru, this week and next, and news reports are full of gloomy predictions that the negotiations will produce little, there are increasing signs that this stalemate may have been broken. This emerging shift is due in large part to China and its decision to break ranks and join the United States in making commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

20多年來，國際氣候談判中的主要問題，一直是那些造成氣候變化問題的國家（主要是美國和歐盟國家）和那些從現在起會讓它大幅惡化的國家（主要是中國和印度）之間的深度分歧。對於本週和下週在祕魯首都利馬舉行的氣候談判，雖然新聞報道充滿了悲觀預測，認爲它幾乎不會取得任何成果，但有越來越多的跡象表明，僵局可能會被打破。這個新轉變在很大程度上歸功於中國，因爲它決定改弦更張，加入美國的行列，對減少溫室氣體排放做出承諾。

One critical question now is whether India — the country that has stood by China’s side in climate talks and is now the world’s third-largest emitter — will follow suit in a meaningful way at the Lima negotiations. And there seems to be a surprisingly high chance that India will.

現在的一個關鍵問題就是，在利馬談判中，印度——過去它在氣候談判中站在中國一邊，目前是世界第三大排放國——是否也會真的效仿中國。我們覺得，出人意料的，印度會這麼做的可能性很高。

China and India share a common domestic problem — one that has motivated China’s leaders to act, and could motivate India’s. That is, the fossil fuels that cause climate change also produce local air pollution. This has risen to deadly levels, with all of the Chinese and Indian cities that the World Health Organization monitors for air pollution failing the organization’s test for acceptable levels of airborne particulate, widely believed to be the most dangerous air pollutant for human health. More than half of these cities also fail their own countries’ particulates standards.

中國和印度都有一個共同的國內問題，它已經促使中國領導人採取了行動，並且有可能促使印度行動起來。這個問題就是，造成氣候變化的化石燃料也污染了本地的空氣。這已經嚴重到了致人死命的程度。接受世界衛生組織(WHO)空氣污染監測的所有中印城市，空氣中的微粒水平都沒有達到WHO的合格標準，逾一半的城市也沒有達到本國的顆粒物標準。在危害人類健康的空氣污染物中，微粒被廣泛認爲是最危險的一種。

This pollution shortens lives and, in the process, undermines the economic growth emerging economies urgently need, as I and other researchers concluded in a recent study. Comparing China’s pollution in the north — where it’s worse, because of subsidies for coal heating in the winter — with the south, we found the north experienced reductions in life spans of about five years. That means people living in northern China are losing many billions of years of life expectancy because of heavy pollution. Keep in mind that southern China also has high pollution levels, which very likely reduces life spans there, too.

這種污染縮減了人類壽命，而且還破壞了新興經濟體亟需的經濟增長，這是我和其他研究人員最近從一項研究中得出的結論。在中國，北方的污染比南方更嚴重，因爲中國在冬季爲北方提供了燃煤供熱補貼。我們發現，北方人的壽命平均減少了5年左右。這意味着，由於污染嚴重，中國北方人口總共減少了數以十億計的壽命年數。請記住，中國南方的污染程度也很嚴重，居住在那裏的人的壽命很可能也已縮短。

Because of this pollution, Chinese citizens have called for change, speaking out online and holding protests. The government has responded with actions, perhaps most notably the declaration by Li Keqiang, China’s premier, of a "war on pollution.” The leaders have realized that cleaner air decreases rates of sickness, in turn reducing health care costs, increasing time at work and presumably making people more productive while they are there. It also increases life spans, meaning more years citizens can contribute to the economy.

面對這種污染，中國公民呼籲進行變革，他們在網上疾呼，還舉行抗議活動。政府則用行動來予以迴應，其中是最引人矚目的也許是中國總理李克強宣佈“向污染宣戰”。領導人已經意識到，清潔空氣可以降低患病率，進而降低醫療成本，增加人們的工作時間，並且可能會提高他們的工作效率。這也延長了人們的壽命，意味着民衆可以在更長的年頭裏爲經濟做出貢獻。

The result is that China’s policies to reduce particulates air pollution for the well-being of its people has been a part of, not counter to, its economic agenda. Moving away from coal and other fossil fuels also reduces the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, which has allowed China to confront two problems at once.

其結果就是，中國爲提升公衆福祉而減少顆粒物空氣污染的政策，成爲了其經濟議程的一部分，而不是與之相背離。逐步放棄煤炭等化石燃料，也減少了溫室氣體排放引起的氣候變化，對中國來說，這是一箭雙鵰的事情。

India could be next. Over the last several weeks, India’s new prime minister, Narendra Modi, has publicly recognized his country’s serious pollution problem, which may actually be worse than in China. First, he announced his intention to make air quality data available to the public. Last week, his administration said it would announce new emissions standards for power plants.

下一個可能就是印度。過去幾周裏，印度的新總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)公開承認該國存在嚴重的污染問題。印度的問題其實可能比中國的更嚴重。首先，莫迪宣佈要向公衆提供空氣質量數據。上週，莫迪政府又表示將頒佈電廠排放的新標準。

India, like China, has a tremendous opportunity to improve the well-being of its citizens. If the regions of India that violate its own particulates air pollution standard were brought into compliance, the 660 million people currently living in these higher-pollution areas would see their life expectancy increase by an average of 3.2 years, for an overall gain of roughly two billion life years, according to our study. This action can in turn be part of India’s economic strategy, contributing to a healthier, longer-working labor force and reduced medical bills.

印度和中國一樣，在提高公民福祉的過程中蘊含着巨大機會。我們的研究顯示，目前印度有6.6億人居住在沒有達到本國顆粒物空氣污染標準的地區，如果污染嚴重的地區地區能夠變得合規，其居民的平均預期壽命將增加3.2年，累計起來大約爲20億年。此舉可能會進而成爲印度經濟戰略的一部分，有助於讓勞動人口變得更加健康，可以工作更長時間，並降低醫療費用。

For years, climate negotiations have involved richer and poorer countries telling each other what they must or should do for the common good. I find it unlikely that American negotiators suddenly found the right words to persuade China to announce a new policy. Far more likely, an increasing awareness of the high levels of air pollution and its costs inside China caused the leadership to conclude that moving away from fossil fuels was in its own interest. Whatever the climate benefits for the planet, and they’re potentially large, they are not driving China’s decision.

多年以來，在氣候談判中，富國和窮國常常告訴對方，必須或應該做哪些事情來維護共同利益。我覺得，美國談判代表不太可能是突然發現了合適的措辭，說服中國宣佈一項新政策。更有可能的狀況是：對於嚴重空氣污染及其給中國本土帶來的代價，人們的意識在不斷提高，因此領導人得出結論，逐步放棄化石燃料對本國有益。無論地球可以獲得怎樣的氣候效益，其潛力有多麼巨大，它們都不是推動中國的決定的主要因素。

But results matters more than motives. If India follows China — and the countries make good on their pledges — it’s possible that history books will ultimately judge this moment as a turning point when the world first collectively took meaningful actions to confront climate change.

但結果比動機重要。如果印度效仿中國——並且兩國都能兌現承諾——史書可能就會把此刻記載爲一個轉折點，因爲世界首次採取了應對氣候變化的重大集體行動。