中國奶製品業的復甦曙光

It is not easy to come back from a scandal involving sick infants; nor should it be. When Chinese milk producer Sanlu was caught selling product doctored with melamine in 2008, China’s entire dairy industry was tainted.

從致使嬰兒得病的醜聞中恢復過來並不容易，也理應不容易。2008年，當中國奶製品生產商三鹿(Sanlu)被查出銷售含有三聚氰胺的產品時，整個奶製品業都沾染了污名。

Seven years on and it is recovering — after considerable effort. Full-year results from Mengniu, one of the last brand s standing, might finally point to the future. After Wednesday’s close it said 2014 revenues were up 15 per cent and net profit up two-fifths, beating forecasts by more than a tenth. Growth in higher margin yoghurt and health drinks contributed to the beat. On Thursday, the stock rose 10 per cent.

7年過去了，中國奶製品業開始復甦——當然它爲此付出了相當大的努力。未倒下的品牌之一——蒙牛(Mengniu)去年全年的業績或許預示着未來。週三收盤之後，蒙牛表示，2014年收入同比增長15%，淨利潤同比上升五分之二，超出預期逾十分之一。利潤率較高的酸奶和保健飲品對這一超預期的業績做出了貢獻。週四，蒙牛股價上漲了10%。

Product mix has improved, but there is more to it than that, namely operational improvement. Mengniu has been consolidating its supply chain to ensure quality control. By the end of last year, 96 per cent of its domestic raw milk supply came from larger-scale farms, up from 70 per cent in 2010. It has also built economies of scale elsewhere, lifting asset utilisation in its chilled product line with a simplified offering. Expertise from Danone of France (with 10 per cent of Mengniu) and Denmark’s Arla (5 per cent) have helped. Mengniu has also been lucky. Falling raw milk prices caused by a supply glut have boosted margins more than discounting hit revenues.

產品結構得到了改善，但不止於此，運營方面也有進步。蒙牛一直在整合其供應鏈以保證質量控制。到去年底，蒙牛96%的國內原奶供應來自規模化、集約化牧場，這個比例高於2010年的70%。蒙牛也在其他方面實現了規模效益，通過精簡產品提高了低溫產品線的資產利用率。持股蒙牛10%的法國達能(Danone)和持股5%的丹麥愛氏晨曦(Arla)帶來的專業經驗，對蒙牛的業績提升也有幫助。蒙牛去年也比較走運。供應過剩所致原奶價格下跌，提升了利潤，緩衝了打折銷售對收入的衝擊。

The company has not just wallowed in its improving fortune. Competition from foreign brands has been fierce since 2008. So as well as a supply chain offensive, Mengniu has boosted marketing spend. In 2014, selling and distribution costs rose to one-fifth of sales, that is up 6 percentage points from a decade ago. But sales, general and administrative costs are still lean by international standards. Danone, for example, spends a third of revenues on SG & A.

時來運轉的蒙牛並沒有沉迷於好運氣。自2008年以來，來自外國品牌的競爭一直十分激烈。所以，除了在供應鏈上主動出擊，蒙牛也增加了營銷支出。2014年，銷售及經銷費用升至銷售額的五分之一，比10年前提高了6個百分點。但以國際標準來衡量，銷售、一般性及管理支出(SG & A)仍處於較低水平。比如，達能的SG & A就達到銷售收入的三分之一。

There is a risk that marketing costs will keep rising faster than sales. But in a consumer market where brands have room to build, that investment should pay off.

目前蒙牛存在着營銷費用增速持續高於銷售額增速的風險。但在一個仍有品牌建設空間的消費者市場，這一投資應會獲得回報。