整個鐘錶行業表現疲軟 奢侈手錶業如何才能復甦

The news for the watch industry is bad. “The headwinds are very strong — especially for watches,” warns Richard Lepeu, chief executive of Richemont, the Swiss luxury goods group whose brands include Cartier and Montblanc. The group’s sales in April 2016 were 15 per cent lower than the year before, in constant currencies.

來自鐘錶行業的消息不容樂觀。歷峯集團(Richemont)首席執行官裏夏爾•勒珀(Richard Lepeu)警告稱：“阻力很大，對於鐘錶行業來說尤其如此。”這家瑞士奢侈品集團旗下品牌包括卡地亞(Cartier)和萬寶龍(Montblanc)。歷峯集團2016年4月按固定貨幣計算的銷售額較上年同期下降了15%。

Statistics on foreign sales of Swiss watches show trouble across the industry: in the first quarter of 2016, exports were 8.9 per cent lower than in the previous year, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. The trouble has been blamed on a range of factors, from China’s economic slowdown to a strong Swiss franc.

瑞士鐘錶產品海外銷售額的統計數據顯示，整個鐘錶行業都表現疲軟：根據瑞士鐘錶協會(Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry)的數據，2016年第一季度的出口額較上年同期下降了8.9%。這一局面被歸咎於多方面的因素，包括中國經濟增長放緩以及瑞士法郎走強。

The industry’s hope is that this year will bring an improvement, particularly in the US. “The global environment is tough mainly because of the significance of Hong Kong as a market. There is an overhang of inventories, but I think the more affordable watches are already selling better,” says Scilla Huang Sun, a luxury sector specialist at GAM Investment Management in Zurich.

瑞士鐘錶行業寄望於今年的狀況能有一定起色，特別是在美國市場。總部位於蘇黎世的GAM投資管理公司(GAM Investment Management)奢侈品行業專家黃意芝(Scilla Huang Sun)表示：“全球市場環境較爲嚴峻，主要原因在於香港作爲一個市場，地位很重要。目前奢侈手錶存在庫存積壓的情況，但我認爲價位更加親民的手錶，銷售情況已經開始好轉。”

Even as Hong Kong has suffered, sales in Japan have been lifted by a weaker yen, which has lost 12 per cent of its value against the dollar since its 2015 low. The US this year could also offer grounds for optimism, sector experts reckon. Last year, a stronger dollar led to European purchases displacing US sales, but those effects may start to weaken.

即便香港市場形勢不利，日本市場的銷售額在日元走軟的推動下已經有所上升，日元兌美元匯率較2015年的低點已經貶值了12%。行業專家認爲，對美國市場今年也有理由保持樂觀。去年美元走強導致銷售額從美國向歐洲市場轉移，但這些影響或已開始弱化。

“We can see that the American continent is showing great potential and positive growth,” says François Thiébaud, president of Tissot, the Swiss watch brand.

瑞士鐘錶品牌天梭(Tissot)的總裁弗朗索瓦•蒂埃博(François Thiébaud)表示：“我們看到，美國市場正展現出巨大潛力和正向增長趨勢。”

A recovery in the US would strengthen the case for those who expect traditional luxury timepieces to ride out the challenge from smartwatches. Mr Thiébaud argues that, contrary to the watch industry’s gloomy view, the arrival of the Apple Watch has not changed US attitudes. “A traditional watch is not just about giving time, but it is also about conveying emotions related to a gift or a certain time in life,” he says. “There is nothing emotional about an electronic device.”

美國市場回暖能夠支持那些認爲傳統奢侈手錶能夠頂住來自智能手錶的挑戰的觀點。蒂埃博認爲，不同於手錶行業的悲觀預期，蘋果手錶(Apple Watch)的出現並沒有改變美國消費者的態度。“一塊傳統手錶的價值並不僅僅在於提示時間，還能傳遞與一份禮物或者生命中某一時期相連的特定情感。而電子產品則不具備任何情感價值。”

Nobody is rushing to predict a rebound, however. “The global economy is going to be very slow this year. It may take a couple of years for the industry to pick up,” says May Ling Tham, an analyst at Euromonitor International. In April, the International Monetary Fund warned the global economic recovery had “weakened further amid increasing financial turbulence”. It expected the global economy to grow by a modest 3.2 per cent in 2016 — roughly the same as last year but less than it had expected as recently as January.

但目前還沒有人急着做出鐘錶行業將會觸底反彈的預測。歐睿國際(Euromonitor International)分析師May Ling Tham表示：“今年全球經濟增長將會非常疲軟，鐘錶行業或許需要好幾年的時間纔能有所回升。”國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)今年4月警告稱，“全球經濟復甦進一步放緩，受金融動盪加劇影響。”該組織預計2016年全球經濟增速將僅爲3.2%——與去年基本持平，但低於其在今年1月份發佈的預測值。

In emerging markets — previously bright spots for luxury brands — “prospects across countries remain uneven and generally weaker than over the past two decades”, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reported.

在曾是奢侈品牌業績亮點的新興市場，國際貨幣基金組織在《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)中指出，“各個新興市場國家的經濟增長前景仍然參差不齊，增長勢頭總體而言弱於過去二十年。”

Watch and jewellery industry revenues are likely to follow such trends closely. “The health of luxury watch sales largely depends on GDP growth prospects and consumer sentiment,” says Thomas Chauvet, luxury sector analyst at Citigroup.

手錶和珠寶行業的銷售收入很可能將緊跟上述趨勢。花旗集團(Citigroup)奢侈品行業分析師托馬斯•肖維(Thomas Chauvet)表示：“奢侈品手錶銷售的景氣程度主要取決於國內生產總值的增長前景以及消費者情緒。”

But it is not a simple correlation. Watch sales have been buffeted by currency movements. The slide in Swiss watch exports has been exacerbated by the strength of the franc (1.20 to the euro before it was unpegged in January 2015, now 1.10), which has increased manufacturing and employment costs in Switzerland. A strong dollar and weak euro have offered “greater price arbitrage opportunities for tourists and facilitated the emergence of well-organised parallel markets, particularly in Europe”, notes Mr Chauvet.

但這並不是一種簡單的正相關關係。手錶銷售一直受匯率波動左右。瑞士手錶出口額的下滑在瑞士法郎走強的影響下進一步惡化（瑞士法郎在2015年1月取消盯住歐元時的匯率爲1.2瑞士法郎兌換1歐元，現在已經升值至1.1法郎兌換1歐元），後者導致瑞士境內的生產成本和僱傭成本上升。肖維指出，美元走強和歐元疲軟爲遊客提供了“更大的價格套利空間，並有助於推動組織完善的平行市場的出現，特別是在歐洲地區”。

Sales to the Chinese, meanwhile, are still being hit by the crackdown on offering gifts to authorities as part of the country’s anti-corruption drive.

與此同時，中國市場的銷售額仍然受到政府嚴厲打擊向官員送禮的不利影響，這是中國反腐敗運動的一個組成部分。

The industry’s difficulties remain particularly acute in Hong Kong, where the effects have been worsened by excessive stock levels in an overcrowded market. Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong were almost a third lower in the first quarter of 2016 than a year earlier.

手錶行業所面臨的困境在香港市場上依然表現得尤爲突出，在過度擁擠的香港市場上，過高的存貨水平進一步強化了這些不利因素的影響。2016年第一季度，瑞士對香港的手錶出口額較上年同期近乎減少了三分之一。

Richemont revealed recently it was helping dealers in Hong Kong with excessive inventories by buying back products — and either reallocating them to other markets or dismantling and recycling them.

歷峯集團近期宣佈，正在通過回購產品的方式幫助香港境內庫存過多的經銷商——回購的手錶要麼被調轉到其他市場銷售，要麼被拆解以後循環利用。

In a report published in April, Euromonitor forecast that in the next five years the US would cede the title of the world’s biggest spender on watches to China. “The transfer of power from west to east had seemed on course to happen earlier, but was derailed by the Chinese government’s crackdown on ostentation and extravagant gifts, and by a depreciation of the Chinese currency since 2015,” the report noted.

在4月份發佈的一篇報告中，歐睿國際預計在未來五年內，美國將把全球第一大手錶消費國的地位讓給中國。這份報告寫到：“從西方向東方的影響力轉移似乎註定會在更短的時間內發生，但這一進程被中國政府嚴查鋪張浪費和奢侈送禮的運動打亂，同時也受到了自2015年以來人民幣貶值的影響。”