時事新聞:鐵礦石價格暴跌衝擊澳大利亞

Australia's central bank policy makers are grappling with a new economic challenge for the resource-rich country: plummeting commodity prices.

澳大利亞央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)的決策者目前正在努力應對這個有着豐富資源的國家所面臨的新經濟挑戰：大宗商品價格暴跌。

The decline in the value of a ton of iron ore to levels last seen in October 2009 has caught the attention of the Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, but it's still unlikely to prompt the bank into unexpectedly cutting rates at its meeting on Tuesday. But the effect that an unchecked slide in export revenue could have on the Australian economy will become a more important factor in the board's thinking in the months ahead.

鐵礦石價格跌至2009年10月的水平，此事引起了澳大利亞央行的關注，但不太可能促使其在週二的會議上意外降息。不過，澳大利亞出口收入一路下滑對該國經濟可能產生不利影響，這將成爲澳大利亞央行理事會未來幾個月考慮的更重要因素。

'Things have changed a lot in the last month,' said Warwick McKibbin, an economist and a member of the RBA board for a decade until July last year, in an interview. 'I now have further downside in my forecasts for interest rates.'

澳大利亞央行前理事會成員、經濟學家麥基賓(Warwick McKibbin)接受採訪時說，過去一個月情況出現了很大改變，我個人現在認爲利率有進一步下降的可能。直到去年7月之前，在10年的時間裏，麥基賓一直是該央行理事會成員。

Mr. McKibbin thinks that the pace of further declines in commodity prices will overtake the risk of inflation, or the strength of the currency, as the RBA's 'key issue' in the months ahead when it weighs whether to start cutting rates again.

麥基賓認爲，大宗商品價格進一步下跌的速度將超過通脹風險或貨幣走勢，成爲未來幾個月澳大利亞央行考慮是否開始再次降息的關鍵問題。

The RBA has put the brakes on rate cuts since June, when it finished a period of pruning 1.25 percentage points from its benchmark lending rate, which now rests at 3.50%. The RBA has resisted pressure to cut rates further, partly because Australia's resource exports have supported growth and given Gov. Glenn Stevens a platform to declare the 'glass is half full' for the economy.

自今年6月剛剛完成一輪降息週期以來，澳大利亞央行便對降息踩下了剎車。在那輪週期中，澳大利亞基準貸款利率累計下調了1.25個百分點，至目前的3.50%。此後，澳大利亞一直頂住進一步降息的壓力，原因之一是該國資源出口不僅對經濟增長起到了支撐的作用，而且也讓澳大利亞央行行長史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)有機會聲稱，澳大利亞經濟這個玻璃杯是半滿的。

Most experts agree that Tuesday's board meeting of the RBA is unlikely to produce a cut in interest rates, with unemployment still low at around 5.2% and the economy still on track to grow an annual average rate of around 3.5%.

大多數專家一致認爲，鑑於澳大利亞失業率仍徘徊在5.2%的較低水平，且該國經濟仍有望以年均約3.5%的速度增長，因此澳大利亞央行不太可能在週二理事會會議上做出降息的決定。

'Our view remains that the cash rate will still fall further, but it may not be till closer to Christmas,' said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital.

澳大利亞基金公司AMP Capital首席經濟學家奧利弗(Shane Oliver)說，我們依舊認爲會進一步下調利率，但可能在接近聖誕節的時候纔會下調。

Of 15 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, all expect the RBA to hold rates firm despite the sudden slump in commodity prices. Market pricing shows a slim 10% chance of the RBA cutting rates.

據《華爾街日報》的調查顯示，受訪的15位經濟學家全都認爲，儘管大宗商品價格驟然下跌，但澳大利亞央行將維持利率不變。市場定價顯示，澳大利亞央行降息的機率並不大，僅爲10%。

That could change fast, however, if prices for coal and iron ore continue to plummet.

但如果煤炭和鐵礦石價格進一步大幅下跌，降息機率可能就會迅速改變。

Nomura estimates that the mining and resources industries accounted for 50% of growth in the economy in the past year, and 70% of exports. BHP Billiton's -0.33% decision to shelve an estimated US$30 billion project to expand a copper and uranium mine in South Australia has added to fears that the mining investment boom has already peaked.

野村證券估計，過去一年礦業和資源行業佔經濟增長的50%，佔出口的70%。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)原本打算擴大南澳大利亞州的一個銅鈾礦，投資規模估計爲300億美元。該公司現已決定暫停這個項目，讓人更加擔心礦業投資潮已經見頂。

If so, it won't be long before the RBA has to act even if the Australian dollar falls to below parity with the U.S. greenback, a drop that would be welcomed by industries such as tourism and manufacturing, which haven't seen the benefits of what policy makers still call a 'once in a century' mining boom.

如果真的已經見頂，那麼即使澳元匯率降至1美元以下，不久之後澳大利亞央行也將不得不採取行動。旅遊和製造等行業沒有從決策者仍然稱爲“百年一遇”的礦業投資潮中獲利，它們樂見澳元跌破1美元的水平。

In previous slumps, Australia's currency has suffered dramatic swings. In 2008, when commodity prices crashed-iron ore fell by about 60%-Australia's dollar fell 40% in value against the U.S. greenback in a matter of weeks to a low around US$0.60. The RBA was forced to intervene by buying the currency directly in support of fiscal stimulus from the government.

澳元匯率在以往礦業低迷期間曾經歷大起大落。2008年，大宗商品價格崩盤，鐵礦石跌幅達到60%左右，在短短几周內，澳元即對美元貶值40%，跌至0.60美元左右的低位。澳大利亞央行被迫直接收購澳元進行干預來支持政府的財政刺激。

But the RBA recently said that the Aussie dollar may not follow commodity prices lower as it did in 2008, because of demand for the currency and Australia's triple-A-rated sovereign bonds that has come from the world's central banks over the past year. That in turn has made managing the currency, which is trading around US$1.03, tricky for policy makers.

但澳大利亞央行最近表示，澳元可能不會像2008年那樣跟隨大宗商品價格走低，因爲過去一年世界多家央行對澳元和澳大利亞AAA評級的主權債券都有強烈的需求。而這又加大了決策者管理匯率的難度。目前澳元在1.03美元左右。

'In terms of the economy, one of the things that has hurt far more than interest rates is the strength of the currency,' said Mike Smith, chief executive of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., in an interview. 'I think the Reserve Bank was probably surprised by the amount of Aussie dollars purchased by sovereign wealth funds and other central banks.'

澳新銀行集團(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.)首席執行長史密斯(Mike Smith)接受採訪時說，匯率走強等因素對經濟的傷害遠遠大於利率，我認爲，主權財富基金和其他央行所購澳元的數量可能超出了澳大利亞央行的意料。

Adding to the RBA's dilemma is the government's pledge to erase a 44 billion Australian dollar (US$45.3 billion) budget deficit by the end of the fiscal year. That promise to voters made by the Labor-led administration of Prime Minister Julia Gillard is now likely to require additional fiscal measures and put pressure on the RBA to use rates to support economic growth.

讓澳大利亞央行更加左右爲難的是，政府承諾將在本財年削減440億澳元(453億美元)的財政赤字。這是總理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)以工黨爲首的政府對選民的承諾。目前來看，這一承諾可能需要政府採取進一步的財政措施才能兌現，同時也有可能使央行不得不採用利率手段來支撐經濟增長。

A spokeswoman for the RBA declined to comment.

澳大利亞央行發言人拒絕置評。