中國受益於大宗商品價格暴跌

China’s economy would have expanded at less than 6 per cent in the first quarter if not for the collapse in global commodity prices, according to data reviewed by the Financial Times, raising concerns about the government’s ability to hit its 7 per cent growth target for the full year.

英國《金融時報》對相關數據進行分析發現，若不是全球大宗商品價格暴跌，中國經濟在第一季度的擴張速度將不到6%。這令人擔憂政府實現7%全年增長目標的能力。

At its first-quarter briefing in April, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that gross domestic product had increased 7 per cent but did not provide a breakdown of the growth figure into its three components — consumption, investment and net exports.

中國國家統計局(NBS)在4月發佈的第一季度簡報中，報告國內生產總值(GDP)增加了7%，但並未提供整體增長數字的三個組成部分的數據：消費、投資和淨出口。

The Chinese government has been trying to boost consumption while weaning the economy off its traditional reliance on credit-fuelled investment. The net export figure, which boosts growth when China enjoys an overall surplus with its trading partners, has traditionally had a much more modest impact on output.

中國政府近年一直試圖提振消費，同時推動經濟擺脫傳統上對信貸助燃投資的依賴。淨出口數字在中國對貿易伙伴有整體順差的情況下會提振增長數字，傳統上，它對產出的影響較小。

According to a breakdown of China’s first-quarter GDP figure that has only recently become available, net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points of the country’s seven per cent growth. By comparison, net exports accounted for just 0.1 percentage points of the 7.4 per cent growth figure reported for 2014 — China’s slowest annual rate of expansion in a quarter century.

根據最近纔可獲得的中國第一季度GDP分類數據，淨出口爲中國7%的增長貢獻了1.3個百分點。相比之下，淨出口在2014年7.4%（中國25年來最慢的年度擴張速度）的增長數字中只佔0.1個百分點。

Consumption and investment, meanwhile, accounted for 4.5 and 1.2 percentage points of first-quarter growth respectively. Without the 1.3 percentage point boost from net exports, China’s first-quarter growth figure would have been much lower at about 5.7 per cent.

與此同時，消費和投資分別佔第一季度經濟增長的4.5和1.2個百分點。若沒有來自淨出口的1.3個百分點的提振，中國第一季度增長數字將低得多，大約爲5.7%。

“It’s quite worrisome,” said Bo Zhuang, China economist at consultancy Trusted Sources. “That’s why the government’s policies have been much more aggressive [over recent months].”

“這相當令人擔憂，”諮詢公司信源(Trusted Sources)中國經濟學家莊波表示。“這就是爲什麼（最近幾個月）政府的政策變得更加積極的原因。”

The Chinese government, which will release its second-quarter GDP estimate next week, has cut interest rates four times since November in a bid to keep growth steady at about 7 per cent.

中國政府自去年11月以來已四次降息，力求將增長穩定在7%左右。中國將於下週公佈第二季度GDP估算數字。

Analysts believe that the latest rate cut, announced on June 27, was also aimed at arresting a sharp sell-off on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, which have lost about 30 per cent of their value since hitting seven-year highs last month.

分析師們相信，6月27日宣佈的最新降息措施，也是爲了遏止上海和深圳證交所的大幅下跌。自上月觸及七年高點以來，滬深股市已蒸發大約30%的價值。

Chinese authorities have also instructed banks to continue to lend to infrastructure projects even if they might be insolvent and eased standards for local government bond issues — part of a larger plan to roll-over some of the Rmb22tn in debt accumulated by local government finance vehicles.

中國當局還指示銀行繼續貸款給基礎設施項目，即使項目可能處於資不抵債的狀態，同時放寬了地方政府發行債券的標準（這是一項整體計劃的一環，目的是滾轉地方政府融資工具積累的22萬億元人民幣債務中的一部分）。

“There’s an awful lot of concern about the first-quarter GDP number,” added another economist, who asked not to be named. NBS said the bureau was not able to comment immediately on the more detailed first-quarter growth figures.

“各方對於第一季度GDP數字有很多擔憂，”不願透露姓名的另一位經濟學家補充說。國家統計局表示，該局無法馬上就更詳細的第一季度增長數據發表評論。

Adding to concerns about China’s economic outlook, the net export figure that provided such an important boost to first-quarter growth was a bit of a fluke.

令人對中國經濟前景更加擔憂的是，爲第一季度經濟增長提供如此重要提振的淨出口數字來得有點僥倖。

First-quarter exports were up only a modest 4.9 per cent on the same period last year, to Rmb3.15tn ($500bn). But the collapse in global commodity prices meant that the value of China’s imports over the first three months of the year fell 17 per cent to Rmb2.39tn, resulting in a surplus of Rmb760bn.

第一季度出口同比增幅並不大，爲4.9%，達到3.15萬億元人民幣（合5000億美元）。但是，全球大宗商品價格暴跌意味着，中國在今年前三個月的進口總值同比下降17%，至2.39萬億元人民幣，造成7600億元人民幣的貿易順差。

Viewed another way, net exports accounted for 18.5 per cent of first quarter economic output compared with just 1.3 per cent last year. The contribution to growth from investment, meanwhile, fell to just 17.4 per cent in the first quarter from 48.5 per cent in 2014.

從另一個角度看，淨出口佔到第一季度經濟產出的18.5%，而去年同期只有1.3%。與此同時，今年首季投資對經濟產出的貢獻爲17.4%，遠低於2014年首季的48.5%。